OK, Just Finished Rating Jockeys At WO and FE - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Cangamble · 08-18-2007, 11:56 PM

Here it is:

http://cangamble.blogspot.com/2007/0...-erie-and.html

Overlay · 08-19-2007, 01:09 AM

I'm not disputing the usefulness of your insights, but to me, hard performance statistics tell the story effectively, and can more easily be incorporated into decisions on what a horse's winning chances are, whether to bet it, and, if so, how much. You may lose a bit in nuances (like missing an angle where a specific jockey is the "go-to" option when a particular trainer's horse is well-meant, even though the rider may not be among the meeting's leaders), but the savings in time make up for it (at least for me).

Cangamble · 08-19-2007, 01:22 AM

My list isn't correlated exactly with winning percentages. There are some jockeys who do well with less talent and some talented jocks who don't do so well.
It really shows my confidence in jockeys when using my speed figures.

David Clark for example doesn't do nearly as well when I pick him, but he does well many times when I don't, because he gets a lot of hidden horses (2 year old first time starters for example).

Overlay · 08-19-2007, 01:37 AM

As you say, it's important to know what works with your own particular style or method of handicapping.

nobeyerspls · 08-19-2007, 08:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cangamble

Here it is:

http://cangamble.blogspot.com/2007/0...-erie-and.html

I seldom consider the rider when I handicap. Sometimes after catching a winner someone will ask me who rode the horse and I have to go back and check.
Your analysis is quite good and I might know since my summer home is six furlongs from the Fort Erie track. The two jockeys providing the best return at the Fort are Brian Bochinski and Mike Quong. King is a solid rider who is always over bet. The key to a nice exotic payout is to catch him in a race where he's astride a slow animal. Sealock is underrated and Mike Mcmullen is a guy who loses his balance during a race. If you watch the head-on replay you'll see his horses swerving from left to right and back again.
There is very little difference in talent at Woodbine as evidenced by the %win stats for the jockeys. The only comment I disagree with is the one made about Jones. He got a 20-1 filly home for me and it was a dirt sprint. It was my largest lifetime cashing experience.

cj · 08-19-2007, 09:20 AM

If Chantel is #3, #4 and below must be pretty sad when compared to the big leagues.

Cangamble · 08-19-2007, 09:42 AM

If I'm not mistaken, Quong rode home a couple of boxcar winners which really shouldn't count that much when analyzing returns.
I do know that when he is either not on the lead early or way at the back early, you might as well forget about cashing with him on the front end.
Chantal is suited for the Poly. On a dirt track she is average.
Jones has had better days. When he does have a boss mount on the dirt, it is no cinch. Look at his numbers this year.
My biggest payoff came on a Win 4 where Steve Bahen rode 2 of the winners.
It doesn't mean that I'm going to put him in my top 10 because of it.

Zman179 · 08-19-2007, 10:06 AM

All I know is that every time I try to visit your new page, my computer freezes up.

Cangamble · 08-19-2007, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zman179

All I know is that every time I try to visit your new page, my computer freezes up.

That is weird. Do you use Firefox or IE?

Zman179 · 08-19-2007, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cangamble

That is weird. Do you use Firefox or IE?

Actually, I'm using an AOL browser. I just tried accessing it via IE and it came up fine.

Bad aol. Baaaaaad aol.

jotb · 08-19-2007, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cangamble

Here it is:

http://cangamble.blogspot.com/2007/0...-erie-and.html

Richard Morrow could be an up and coming bug rider. He has only rode 2 races and hit the board once.

Joe

Cangamble · 08-20-2007, 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Overlay

As you say, it's important to know what works with your own particular style or method of handicapping.

I'm pretty much a speed handicapper who has no respect for Beyers figs. I make my own.

maxwell · 08-21-2007, 03:05 AM

Clark is lucky he hooked up with Bob Tiller years ago.

Olguin surprised me by going to SoCal for the winter and doing pretty well down there.

Husbands is good enough to ride just about anywhere. I don't think his head is screwed on right, however.

I like Woodbine but I find it takes me half of the year to get into it due to the fact that too many horses don't race from Dec. to April.

andicap · 08-23-2007, 04:48 AM

From the list
8. Happy Ando- Just back from an injury. Was improving before the injury.
9. Sunny Singh- Close to being considered a low ranked Woodbine jockey, he gets a lot of good mounts at the Fort from Woodbine.
10.Schemlin Montoute- Good numbers in limited tries. By appointment only.

C'mon -- these are the names of horses, right? Or aliases? "Schemlin Montute?" I mean that sounds like a Yiddish dessert. "No waitress, not the Schemlin Tofutti. The Schemlin Montute."

My best friend in high school was named Andy. His dad always called him "Ando." And he was a pretty upbeat guy. Is that you, Andy??

And Sunny Singh. Well, lets just say you have to PM me to get my take on that one.

Actually they remind me of the original names of some famous Hollywood actors. You know like Archibald Leach.

(Great job, Can -- thanks a million)

Oh yes, you've got a typo on the site. If you need to "bet" Woodbine, I presume you meant.

If I needed to "be" Woodbine? Hmm.. sounds like a Barbara Walters interview. "Andy, if you could be any racetrack in the world, which one would it be?"

"Well, Barbara, I'd like to be Woodbine."

Cangamble · 08-23-2007, 08:24 AM

Thanks Andicap, I corrected my mistake. Happy, Sunny, and Schemlin sure do sound like they could be the new Three Stooges or Marx brothers