I would like to thank InFront and the other contributors to this thread which has helped keep my thinking 'on task' with the decisions to be made in any race betting situation. It has also cleared up a number of concepts in my mind about the best way to play the different bets.
I particularly liked Nobeyers theory of finding live longshots as a starting point to build bets around. I have trouble figuring out where the longer prices will make sense, in advance of seeing the odds, though! Too many times I think Im going to find a long price, but at post its going off at 5-2! Addressing Nobeyers theory, what I have recognized is that in short fields, the verticals do not make sense from a value perspective. Something else Im finding is that if that 5-2 horse I mentioned above is used as a 'blind single' in the 'pick' series, the payoffs will be large anyway!!!!! Thanks for the insight.
My theory is to bet the low priced horses in the 'Pick 3' bets(singling one logical strong favorite as a 'Bingo' square, finding one other single thats not a favorite, then spreading the third race for a price), if thats not possible, Ill go w exactas and tris(as long as you can get value for the 2nd-3rd spots), and use longer prices to win, as well as exacta boxing those to other logical ctrs. Im always surprised how well the 'Pick' Bets pay off even when low priced horses end up winning. What Im finding even more is that the fewer the number of combos, the bigger the returns. Taking a risk by singling a medium priced horse(or even the 2nd choice) is even more valuable than spreading in a wide open spot.
I like to keep in mind that Win betting is a 'total commitment' to a race, a Win bet 'must win' for you to get a return in that particular spot. Once a race gets really competitive, or confusing, I want to avoid Win betting altogether unless Im getting a huge overlay...and outside of special, special situations, I never, ever, ever, bet place or show.
I dont have any realistic way to lump all win bets into a single category and 'average them'; ie 28% at 7-2 odds shows a net profit/edge of 26 pct per bet, etc, etc. I think this is part of the brainwashing that was laid out in a lot of the handicapping books in the past, taking your average odds and win pct and 'figuring out your edge'. To me, there is no 'average', every situation is a little different. I can find good Win bets from odds of 8-5 on up to 30-1 +, it all depends. I have no real preference in odds, other than making sure that Im getting value somewhere. I also do not use ANY 'set' methodology or system to 'extract systematic profits', its more like a varied set of 'tools' that can be adaptable to any given situation, like a bag of golf clubs where you can choose your club, type of swing, vs conditions, your lie, wind speed, etc.
My 'personal reality check' is that there are just more opportunities in the lower price ranges, which keeps me from being disappointed when I 'miss' the 25-1 winner in the 4th race. Another way to look at it is from the other side-since I can find 3-1 or 4-1 winners any given day, why shy away from betting a 40-1 shot that makes sense--it may be a long time before I find another one. My thinking is "the higher the odds, the more important it is to have a Win bet working for me". Not only that, but the value is actually there.
As a rule-Im looking for standouts before I bet low priced horses to Win. I prefer exactas or tris at the lower odds spectrum, since theres a smaller margin for error, w lower win prices, and I can usually leverage returns to get more than the Win price w the verticals. You also have to be careful with win betting on horses with "Odds Instability" - usually clear cut favorites that all the late money piles onto in the last moments of betting, going from 2-1 down to 6-5, or if the odds have continued falling throughout the betting-starting at 8-1, then 5-1, then 4-1, and going off at 5-2. This kind of mass hysteria can wreck your returns.
I am starting to ramble a bit...pardon me, I am sharing some of my thoughts, am still learning, and will quit for now....I find that typing this out has helped clarify my own thoughts on this subject. Thanks