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Old 07-06-2007, 09:42 AM   #1
Maverick58034
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Sprint to Route: Turf

Hey all,

I did a search on the forums and did not find any relevant threads, so I figured I'd throw this out there and see what you guys have to say:

One of the moves that has left me scratching my head lately has been stretching out in turf races. I have been spending more time focused lately on turf racing (a part of my game that had been previously neglected), and I still don't quite have a handle on this move.

It appears that a few different situations arise:
1) The horse is pure speed
2) The horse presses
3) The horse runs a big close late, giving 11-12 second final furlongs or 5-6 second final 1/2 furlongs (but are usually so far back they cannot take the cake)

Which of these 3 styles transfers best to the route? Conventional wisdom tells me that the deep closer in the sprint races would benefit the most (turf routes are much kinder to closers than turf sprints). Obviously it is difficult to predict how the horse will take to the extra 3+furlongs and possibly another turn. While it sounds logical that the closer would benefit, would the presser be the real play (softer pace, and benefits if can sustain rally)?

What are your guys thoughts/experiences?
-Mav
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Old 07-06-2007, 10:52 AM   #2
Robert Fischer
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a - young lightly raced horse, distance pedigree, lacked a little bit of speed in the sprint but finished willingly. Maybe a presser, maybe slightly more midpack depending on the level of competition.

b- horse with established form at route, last race cut back to a sprint distance, lacked a little bit of speed in the sprint but finished willingly. Maybe a presser, maybe slightly more midpack depending on the level of competition, Today stretches back out to his established route distance.


You also have to be careful grouping all routes together.1m1/16 is a huge difference from 1m1/2. Probably best to look at at a couple of sprint distances and only one or two route distances building the angle.
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Old 07-06-2007, 02:04 PM   #3
statik27
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When betting turf routes I rarely take the speed anyway so I may not be the best to answer this. But in the cases where I do, I have to be able to couple it with other positives, ie: Class Advantage,previous races where the horse ran well on that angle, or a Jockey or Trainer that is capable of pulling it off.

But as I said, I rarely take the speed in a turf race unless the distance is 10f or further where the Jockey has a chance to distort the pace to greater effect.

statik
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Old 07-06-2007, 07:04 PM   #4
thelyingthief
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it has

always seemed to me, as an occasional turf player at best, stretch-outs, route distance switches, shortening up, etc., are just plain immaterial on the sod. if they have the necessary velocity to compete for a fraction, any fraction, and the horse is tractable, or "tactical", then it may win.

trainers and jockeys are more important to determining true contention in grass racing, than just about any other factor, outside a horse's proclivity to the grass.

tlt
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Old 07-06-2007, 07:27 PM   #5
JustRalph
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some of my best scores.....

1. First time on turf....at 5-6F......has huge early speed on dirt.

2. First time at a route........not even on dirt.....good early and going 7F plus today...............they usually get softer fractions than ever before......major plus if they have been training at 6f or better on dirt......or turf.........
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Old 07-06-2007, 07:59 PM   #6
Greyfox
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Lots of Questions to Ask before My Money Goes Down.

Running style?
If the horse is Early, how many other Early types, if any, are in the race?
What is the trainer's history on sprint to route? What is the trainer's history on turf? Why is this horse in today's race?
Has there been a positive jockey switch?
Any works on turf?
Quite often a runner that looks like he will profit from the stretchout, doesn't fire on his first go. eg. Good closer at 6f doesn't win, still doesn't win on the stretchout? When a horse is asked to do something for the first time (i.e. never done it before) demand fair value. If a bet down stretch out beats you, it beats you. In the long run, you won't make money on those wagers.
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Old 07-06-2007, 08:05 PM   #7
the_fat_man
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I deal with the individual case and try not to generalize; though I have learned, from experience, what generally works and what doesn't when a horse is radically changing distance. Of course, this approach would require a bit of effort and we're not about that here. We're just looking for heuristics.


A huge part of the 'problem' is that alot of these trainers don't really know what they're doing when it comes to their turf (and otherwise) horses. That's why you see them changing distance more often than you'd like.
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