First Things First

[Pell Mell]

What are the first things you look at when you handicap, such as; conditions of the race, running lines, class, speed ratings, etc.

What is your first intent? To eliminate the race, eliminate horses, find the best horse, etc.

Personally, I read conditions first, look at all last races with no consideration given to the entry, only interested in the class and speed of the race it is coming out of. That's my first two moves. If there is interest in this thread I will continue.

[cj]

Surface, Age, Class, Distance, Sex.

[Edward DeVere]

"Is this race on the turf?"

[Good4Now]

particularly the excluded levels and the time span for weight allowances. Then the distance. The second tier tracks have enough variation in "sprint" distances to allow sharp trainers that know the horse is most effective at one distance to get them in shape at the wrong distance and help the price when at the correct distance once ready. Churchill is one of the few MAJOR tracks to also have this available, due to the length of the spring meet. For many four, five, and six year old Race Horses a Half Furlong may as well be the English Channel!
Before all the Louisianna Slot money they would write some races with HUGE time spans for the weight breaks. Non winners in six months allowed 2 pounds, NW's in nine months 4 pounds USED to show up about every month, but not so often seen the last couple of years. To bad.

[Pell Mell]

G4N, good observation. I don't see how one can begin to cap a race without a thought given to the conditions. Just in the cheaper claiming races alone one may find 10 different classifications in the confines of one claiming price. Sometimes half the field can be eliminated by the fact of being entered under the wrong conditions.

And yet, I have observed people handicapping with nary a thought as to the conditions which are the basic tool a trainer has in properly placing their horse.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Pell Mell

What are the first things you look at when you handicap, such as; conditions of the race, running lines, class, speed ratings, etc.

What is your first intent? To eliminate the race, eliminate horses, find the best horse, etc.

Personally, I read conditions first, look at all last races with no consideration given to the entry, only interested in the class and speed of the race it is coming out of. That's my first two moves. If there is interest in this thread I will continue.

In order of preference I look first at:

1. Class
2. Distance
3. Pace
4. Style
5. Weight

[john del riccio]

Surface, Distance, Class, Pace, Speed, Form, Connections.

[Tom]

Before the first thing.....is the track offered anywhere I have an account?

[Good4Now]

I hope ALL the races you find are available to your account...and there are ALWAYS funds available!

JOHN: As you were the first to mention 'CONNECTIONS' do you have a preference (among the "FRANCHISE" trainers i.e. Amoss, Frankel, Pletcher) as to whether or NOT they are 'On the Grounds' for the race???
Would you favor a RULE change to where the named trainer MUST saddle the horse????

cj: As you mention AGE as your second point do you have set expectations of what the horse SHOULD have accomplished by this point in their careers???
How flexible are you when they fall short???

Cratos: As you are the only one to list weight thus far do you like the somewhat common claiming race where maybe two horses carry about 4 pounds more than the rest who vary about a pound or so if you omit the highweighted ones???

To ALL: Do you vary the order you use???
Kind of like brushing your teeth Left Handed to open 'dormant' neural pathways???

Thus gives me 30 POSTS!!!!

[kenwoodallpromos]

I look at the conditions in order, so class and then distance of race and if "NW" is classified by distance.
In looking at individual horse PP's, after reading the top info, I look first for fitness by regularer works and races and for negative energy signs in the comments without justification.

[bellsbendboy]

Who is eligible to compete (class) is clearly the first component of cappin. As a difficult exercize, check out the eighth at Churchill Sunday (5/27) and try to determine who "fits"??? BBB

[GaryG]

See who may be favored by the conditions and then who the probable pace may favor. Then the fun starts.

[Cratos]

“Cratos: As you are the only one to list weight thus far do you like the somewhat common claiming race where maybe two horses carry about 4 pounds more than the rest who vary about a pound or so if you omit the highweighted ones???”

Funny that you talk of omitting the “highweight” because I do just the opposite and this comes from a survey that was conducted by the DRF which found that about 70% of all races are won by the highweight. I don’t play claimers or MSW races at all and very few allowance races. But I have found through my own research that in claimers “weight” is king.

[stu]

Originally Posted by Cratos

“Cratos: As you are the only one to list weight thus far do you like the somewhat common claiming race where maybe two horses carry about 4 pounds more than the rest who vary about a pound or so if you omit the highweighted ones???”

Funny that you talk of omitting the “highweight” because I do just the opposite and this comes from a survey that was conducted by the DRF which found that about 70% of all races are won by the highweight. I don’t play claimers or MSW races at all and very few allowance races. But I have found through my own research that in claimers “weight” is king.

This is absolutely true on the top circuits. At the mid-level tracks and lower, be aware of 'waived weight allowances' to accomodate heavier riders.

It is common at all tracks in New Mexico for some riders to have their agents waive the weight allowances. E.g. a horse might deserve 6 pounds off by race conditions and they will only take 2 or 4 of the allowed 6. This doesn't even include the maximum seven pounds overweight at which some will weigh out.

In short, be careful playing the horse with the highest impost at medium and small tracks.

stu

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by Pell Mell

What are the first things you look at when you handicap, such as; conditions of the race, running lines, class, speed ratings, etc.

What is your first intent? To eliminate the race, eliminate horses, find the best horse, etc.

My primary objective is to find the horse with odds that compare most favorably to my assessment of its winning chances. In arriving at that judgment, I look at distance, surface, running style, condition, class, consistency, connections, speed, and track bias.