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11-11-2002, 11:49 PM
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#1
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sligg
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Middle Village NY (Queens)
Posts: 268
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Pie Publishing
Interim Report on their $77/month service
Test: November 1-11 (11 days)
Strategy: bet top rated horse that has at least one diamond
Bets: 85
Won: 37 Place: 52
%: 43.5 61.2
$ Won: 208.8 186
Net: 38.8 16
ROI %: 22.8 9.4
I have all bets listed on a spreadsheet but wasn't yet able to find any eliminations to increase win% or ROI.
Comments: are these results good or just marginal. If you bet $200 win net profit would have been $3880 in eleven days.
__________________
Sal Liggieri
sligg@hotmail.com
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11-11-2002, 11:57 PM
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#2
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sligg
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Middle Village NY (Queens)
Posts: 268
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Repost Pie Publishing
Post didn't print right.
On the win end
85 bets
37 won, 43.5%
$38.8 net
22.8% ROI
On the place end
85 bets
52 won, 61.2%
$16.0 net
9.4% ROI
If you bet $200 win per race, in eleven days the profit was $3880.
Are these results good?
__________________
Sal Liggieri
sligg@hotmail.com
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11-12-2002, 01:22 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: denton. tx
Posts: 2,966
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I think I would be very happy anytime I could make $3880 in eleven days !!!
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david stewart
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11-12-2002, 01:27 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 6,128
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You certainly can't call them bad, but you need more testing to have long-term confidence in a certain level of return. Based on that sample though, I'd go ahead and bet real money using a marginal bet size for the next test.
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11-12-2002, 10:44 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 1,965
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That's not bad for 86 plays over 11 days. Can you get thier selections over the last year. Everyone has a run out..just a matter of how long it is. Wonder what their longest run out is?
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11-12-2002, 03:36 PM
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#6
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Spot Play Bettor
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 570
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pie publishing stats
Hi Sligg:
Those are good numbers!! A lot of plays--what tracks were played? Could you improve the results by eliminating any of the very short odds plays?
This is interesting because some of the other stuff they are promoting is from the past and does not work.
I think they have increased the price to $95 or $99 per month.
Would also like to know more as mentioned in previous posts!
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11-12-2002, 05:01 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 1,719
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Sal, they certainly can not be "Cream of the Crop" selections
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11-12-2002, 08:21 PM
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#8
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sligg
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Middle Village NY (Queens)
Posts: 268
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Pie Publishing
The tracks covered:
Aquduct, Calder, Churchill Downs, Santa Anita, Hollywood Park, Golden Gate, Bay Meadows.
I paid $77 for a one month trial. The printouts appear to be computer generated as he uses power ratings to rank the horses.
He has two betting strategies:
1. Golden Pro: Bet top ranked horse in dirt sprints with post time odds of 3/1 or less. I tracked this for about 60 bets then stopped because the ROI was small even though the win % was 44%.
2. Triple Diamond: Bet top ranked horse if it has 1-3 diamonds (asterisks) marked next to its name, all distances, no turf. This is the strategy I'm tracking. I'm sure I can improve the ROI by eliminating odds of less than 1/1.
The beauty of this program: no judgement is involved just betting to win. If the top horse has a diamond, it's a bet.
At the conclusion of this trial I should have at least 200 bets. I can then make a more meaningful analysis-if it holds up.
__________________
Sal Liggieri
sligg@hotmail.com
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11-12-2002, 09:35 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 1,719
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SAL,
Good luck on your research. Keep us posted.
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11-13-2002, 01:36 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: New Rochelle, NY
Posts: 223
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Game Theory,
How much testing would you suggest before being able to put substantial faith in accumulated test data? Thanks.
Jack
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11-13-2002, 02:56 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 6,128
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Well, a lot more. That's to have confidence that I'm going to make at least X% positive profit. It depends on the hit rate and avg mutuel as well. If you want to calculate it to a specific confidence level, there are standard statisical formulas for that.
Generally, I don't bother with that though. Our friend Rick gave a rule of thumb a while back -- 30 wins. We have that here. Based on the sample I would go ahead and bet small amounts of money. 43.5% hit rate is pretty good -- it probably isn't going to get much better than that. I would assume that this is an above average sample, but chances are that it is a least a break-even proposition long-term unless this is a really out-of-whack sample. We don't know yet, but I would expect that on some samples of similar size it would only hit 22% or so and take a loss. So I'd start out small and see how it went on the next 4 or 5 samples of the same size. See how much variance there is, etc. Obviously if the sample size becomes large and the profits disappear you have your answer. If it stays in black, then keep betting. How much depends on your particular temperment, bankroll, etc.
Short answer is that it is worth a little risk at this point, but not much...
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