Penn Race 9 6-23

[SAL]

Can anyone tell me why I should have considered the winner (#6) a contender? This horse cost me the pick-4 yesterday, it went wire to wire after not showing any early speed at any call in it's last ten races. This one race is going to keep me from ever betting that damn track again.

[hurrikane]

I can't give you a difinative answer Sal but a few insights...

1. off track..anything can happen.

2. paceless race..this horse had as much chance taking the front as any of the other dogs.

3. horse raced 13 times on an off track...finished in the money 8 of those winning two. Running an off track may be the only thing this horse can do. Also...some rather quick works (for this type of horse) leading to this race.

4. Nieto is 12/44 wins and 19/44 itm on off tracks. I'm sure how you structured you're pick 4 but I don't think there was anything crooked that happened here. It was a wide open race and I think maybe the jock knew that and bolted him out of the gate for the lead.

don't give up on PEN...lot of nice plays there!

[GR1@HTR]

Sal,

I lost a little cash on that race as well. I bet the #4, thinking he could take it wire to wire. Hurrikane came up with a good explanation. Only thing I could add it that the computer program I am using gave #6 the 2nd best early fraction rating in the race. I normally don't bet those types but they do go wire to wire especially when one or more early runners don't break well.

[SAL]

Well, paceless race or not, I still would not have considered this horse a candidate for the early lead. You look at the PP's, and the horse is NEVER better than 5th at the first call, only better than 5th once at the second call. I always go back and take a look at a race afterward to see if I missed anything, and in this race I don't believe I did. An 0-39 trainer with a horse with no early speed in a paceless race, beaten a total of 58+ lengths in it's last 3 races. I wouldn't have bet it with YOUR money!

[Tom]

Sal,
I didn't play this race due to repeated failure of YouBet to provide sevice,but I did print it out in anticapation of
using it. From HTR, the horse ranks as follows, using the Oct 13 paceline the program picked:
F1 2 1st fraction
F2 5 2nd
F3 1 3rd

AP 2 Average pace
EP 3 Early
SP 2 Sustained
FX 1 Factor X
LP 3 Late Pace
It had a $ symbol which indicates a longhsot potential.

I find that on this type of crap race at cheap tracks good plays are those that you can't get by looking at the PP's-they are for really bad/slow horses that win when you don't expect it. I love to see HTR (or MPH or Thoromation before that) that rates a horse early that shows nothing visually that he will go early. I don't know what this guy paid last night, but these are the plusses from the program (he was also rated 3 Vel
which is a factor winning 80% of 6f filly sprints on wet tracks).

Tom

[SAL]

Tom,

The problem with pace/velocity programs is that they don't take into account for the fact that horses that run midpack tend to run midpack no matter what the pace is. If a horse runs midpack vs a 44 pace, it's rating is going to be higher than a horse who runs midpack vs a 46 pace. This does not mean that the horse who ran in the 44 race has more early speed than the horse who ran in the 46 race. Despite the horses' ranking in HTR for early pace, the fact remains that this horse had not shown any inclination toward early speed before last night. The race you used shows the horse was 7th early in the race, and passed a few horses in the stretch. Not exactly a race to point out a possible front running effort today. I suppose my sourness will wear off eventually, but for now I'm stilled pretty disgusted.

[hurrikane]

Sal.. I don't think the 6 was a throwout by any means. I really don't think there was anything wrong with the race, you just didn't put the winner in your pick 3. I can't tell you how many times that has happened to me.

Good luck

[SAL]

Your observation of the race is very astute, I have to admit, I didn't consider some things that you mentioned. I always try to learn from mistakes and when I miss something from a race I always look back to see what it was. That's what I love about this game, there's always something new to learn, and you've definitely shown me another wrinkle to consider when I look at a race. Thanks for your input.

[karlskorner]

To quote Tom Ainslie from his book "Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing"

It's easy to handicap a winner when the race is over. I've done it, you hae done it, EVERYONE has done it. You wonder how you could possibly failed to notice before the race what suddenly becomes so "obvious" afterwards

And for sure, if this "same" race is ever run again, we will all have the winner.

Karl

[andicap]

Karl,
While I agree with you that I have hit more than my share of longshots after the races are over,
I for one don't mind a bit of redboarding as it's a good way to learn and see what might have been overlooked. I don't think anyone who has posted here is bragging that they would have the winner just in retrospect the horse was gettable and here's why.
I always redboard my own races after losing (and winning) so why not do it with other.

andicap

[NoDayJob]

My program's:

top 4 early velocity numbers ~~ #3, 239 ~ #2, 228 ~ #6, 226 ~ #1, 203
top 4 average speed numbers ~ #2, 189 ~ #5, 189 ~ #6, 182 ~ #1, 179
top 4 reserve energy numbers ~ #5, +14 ~ #6, -5 ~~ #3, -12 ~ #1, -13
top 4 class numbers ~~~~~~~~#3, 20366 ~ #2, 6309 ~ #1, 6194 ~ #6, 5497
top 4 ITM% past performances ~ #2, 80 ~ #5, 50 ~ #1, 50 ~ #6 40

#1 qualified 5/5 ***
#2 qualified 4/5
#3 qualified 3/5
#4 out
#5 qualified 3/5
#6 qualified 5/5 ***

*** 2 best horses numerically

[andicap]

NDJ,
Just curious...
-- is that based on a single paceline?
-- Reserver energy...similar to sustained?
-- ITM%? Last 10 or lifetime?

Andicap

[karlskorner]

Andicap;

My understanding of the word "reboarding or reboarder" was someone who could give you reasons why a particular horse won the race, after the race has been run and of course he would have HAD the winner, HAD he played the race. Falls under the heading of "Shyster and Tout" as so aptly stated by a member of this board on another post.

I have read many books and articles by redboarders full of graphs and wordy explanations as to why a horse, who did not seem logical, won the race.

I have this one "nagging" problem, in order to stay "alive" I have to know the winner before the race is run.

[NoDayJob]

NDJ,
Just curious...
-- is that based on a single paceline?
-- Reserver energy...similar to sustained?
-- ITM%? Last 10 or lifetime?

Andicap

Andicap,

I use multiple pace lines based on the last 5 starts, best 3 races regardless of distance or surface. My algorithms compensate for distance and track surface. No par times are involved. I dropped those over 15 years ago.

Reserve energy is computed from the quarter pole to the finish. These are similar to Rubin Boxer's "Boxer Number". However, I believe my numbers are more accurate if that is possible in this business.

ITM% is based on the last 10 starts (4ths are considered in maiden races).

-NDJ

[Tom]

Gee, I thought I had learned a thing or two from this board. I know I learned something over at Yahoo-that Darwin was wrong. Monkees come from man, not the other way around.
Let me remind every one-you don't have to read every post.
As far as redbaording, what better way to learn than to go back and take a race apart and see what you missed, or what you thought was important, but wasn't.
I'll give you an example-Dave Litfin wrote a glowing article in Saturday's DRF about what a classy horse Beautiful Pleasure was and what great big Beyers she had run compared to her competition. CRAP!! Let's reboard a little here-

Beyer Comments
---------------------------------------------------------------------
110 Legitimate number. In 1998
111 Perfect trip in 3rd behind a speed duel-1999
112 Wire-to-wire in the slop
113 Wire-to-wire in the slop
113 Wire-to-wire in the slop
109 Wire-to-wire fast track
112 Alone on the lead, got nailed but was daylight
ahead of the third horse in a race much faster
than the Graded boys that day-a tremendous
effort that I believe ended her career in graded
stakes. She failed to fire in the BC and went on
the shelf. Coming back Saturday, I crossed out
all of her 110+ beyers except the 112 and I
saw a spent 6yo mare that was a "press horse"
that didn't figure to hit the board.

Who to bet?

Jostle paired up her 2nd and 3rd starts of the year-ran a 106 top last year and figure to move ahead a few more points-certainly a 104-108 was within reason.
Serra Lake, two new tops, off an initial big move-ready to not fire today-not a contender. Apple of Kent-paired new a new top in Feb and MAr, fialed on turf or regressed from the effort? don't know, but came back with a slight move to a new top and is eligible to move again-103-105? Possible.
Critical Eye-close a new top with that 102 2nd out this year, then regressed and then circled back to a 100. Has room to move ahead-LT top was 104 last year-expect more from her today. Darling My darling-outside shot but not a lot of foundation yet.
So what is the value play here? Jostle to win and Critical Eye to win and place. Box them with Apple of Kent.
Using this same line of reasoning, I went 2 for 10 in the last 10 stakes I bet. Now I am 3 for 11, but at these odds, it is worth the weight.
And the icing on the cake, Litfin is the one who wrote the "redbaording" book were I learned these figure patterns, and he is the one who touted the heavy favorite that added a few points to my odds.
The whole thing about going back and seeing where I lost previous bets is that I am learning how to make Jostle a strong contender and Serra Lake a throwout when they were a neck apart last time out. And when to expect new moves from a horse. And why to think Critical Eye will run better than last time she faced Apple of Kent. I won't get that type of information from a data base.

I didn't post this before the race. I never post selections, except the BRIS contest, which I didn't bother with last week becaue hitting 10 for 10 wouldn't have helped me.

I welcome posts that analyze a race, even after the fact.
I can learn from them. What's the big deal about posting before the race? I am not going to bet anyone's picks but my own.

Sorry to ramble,
Tom