Value Betting At The Racetrack - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

JustMissed · 09-08-2006, 06:27 PM

I asked the following of Dave Johnson in response to one of his post regarding the book he wrote entitled VALUE BETTING AT THE RACETRACK.

The tread was in the Library section and unfortunately Mr. Johnson nor anyone else was able to provide any examples or explainations as to how or why Value Betting can increase a player's profits.

Since this seems to be the most popular and most read area of the board, I am printing below my original question to Mr. Johnson in hopes that someone can provide some information as to why Value Betting works.

My original post is below in quotes:

"Would you mind explaining where the value comes from? I am not sure that measuring the difference between self-calculated betting lines(or oddsline if you prefer) and the tote odds(or expected payoff as I prefer) really means anything.

After all, two guys could very well be standing next to each other by the rail and one guy makes the #2 horse to be 5-2. The guy standing next to him may make that same horse 3-1. If the #2 horse wins and pays $9, both guys make a $7 profit. How could there be more value for one player over the other.

I strongly suspect that "value betting" is just a gimmick some book writer came up with to sell another book and was quickly picked up by the software developers in order to ad another enhancement to their handicapping software.

It is possible that I am wrong and would gladly admit so if you would please show me an example of value betting and how it causes you to make more profit in the long or short term.

Thanks,

JM"[END QUOTE]

Any comments are appreciated but I hope someone can provide some examples or direct me to some bonafide studies or research that shows that value betting can improve profits and why.

Thanks,

JM

Overlay · 09-08-2006, 06:34 PM

I offered one possible scenario in the original thread, as follows:

One way could be if, instead of each betting the same amount, they were sizing their wagers based on the amount of overlay the horse offered according to their respective betting lines, so that the one who had the horse at lower odds in his line would make more. There could also be cases where a horse would be an overlay on one player's line, and an underlay on another's, in which case the net outcome would hinge on whether the horse won or lost, and how big an overlay it was on the one player's line. Of course, the final gauge of how accurate each player's line was would be the degree to which it corresponded to the actual winning percentage of horses at each of its odds levels (based on a 100% betting line) over a representatively large number of races. (Then there is also the issue that has already been mentioned of how accurate the odds line remains as the toteboard odds go up, and the effect of that on the overall net wagering result.)

ryesteve · 09-08-2006, 06:35 PM

Before repeating the same thread here, why not go back to the original one and respond to the posts that were directed to you?

JustMissed · 09-08-2006, 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ryesteve

Before repeating the same thread here, why not go back to the original one and respond to the posts that were directed to you?

Gee Steve,

If I want an answer, why not post in an area that has 78,905 post rather than in the Handicapping Library area that has only 5,993.

Now that is an example of real value.

JM

PaceAdvantage · 09-08-2006, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustMissed

Gee Steve,

If I want an answer, why not post in an area that has 78,905 post rather than in the Handicapping Library area that has only 5,993.

Now that is an example of real value.

JM

I think what he is saying is that you received a couple of replies from Overlay and GameTheory....I take it you were unsatisfied with their answers to your inquiry?

sjk · 09-08-2006, 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustMissed

Any comments are appreciated but I hope someone can provide some examples or direct me to some bonafide studies or research that shows that value betting can improve profits and why.

Thanks,

JM

Where are any bonafide studies or research in the handicapping area? If there were a large number of them I would probably have stumbled across some of them over the years.

There are no journals related to handicapping that I am aware of.

People who do handicapping research are primarily interested in:

1). Making winning bets and optimizing their play

2). Some of the good folks here are willing to offer advice to those who are open-minded enough to learn.

3). ?? - giving good advice to people who only want to hear what they already believe is something that gets old after a while.

twindouble · 09-08-2006, 07:41 PM

To me the answer is simple, you handicap the race bet the horse you like to win if it's not the 1-9 chalk. That's value betting at the track, online or through the book if you can find one.

T.D.

TRM · 09-08-2006, 10:50 PM

You might try Steve Fiero's book. He gives some good examples.

ryesteve · 09-08-2006, 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I think what he is saying is that you received a couple of replies from Overlay and GameTheory....I take it you were unsatisfied with their answers to your inquiry?

... and there were a couple from me as well. We'll never know whether or not he was satisfied with them, since he ignored him. His inability to comprehend that point in the previous message is enough to convince me further explanations would be a waste of time.

twindouble · 09-08-2006, 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TRM

You might try Steve Fiero's book. He gives some good examples.

What's he going to tell me, bet a 5-2 when I like an 18-1? Skip the chalk when I know he's a key horse in the picks? Watch the odds board and bet the smart late or early money? Am I finally going to learn how to handicap after 46 years at the game? Clue me in TRM, please.

GameTheory · 09-08-2006, 11:02 PM

Not to mention that he's been asking this same question periodically for a few years now and getting the explanation over and over...

twindouble · 09-08-2006, 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GameTheory

Not to mention that he's been asking this same question periodically for a few years now and getting the explanation over and over...

And I've been worried about losing my memory.

NY BRED · 09-09-2006, 08:40 AM

real value "bet"

drive to the track and face:

high price of travel(gas,tolls,traffic)
face ridiculous admission and parking charges
being unable to watch more than one track if you are in the stands
spend significant $ for lousy food
again face the issues on line 1 above when leaving the track

or..

open an on line account and get track odds
save all the money listed above and you can purchase tvg/htr simulcasts
save on all travel expense and potential damage and frustration listed above
enjoy your own list of favorite foods
even if you still lose, at least you can still smile that you missed
the negatives of going to the track

only negatives
you can't observe the paddock or properly observe the horses
as they parade to the gate

if you are trackside, you can't yell at the jock for a bad ride.

unfortunately, this is why the average track attendance
has dramatically decreased during the year at all eastern
tracks(Saratoga not included)

TRM · 09-09-2006, 09:55 AM

TD,

The original question from JM was Where does value come from?

From Steve's book pg 23

"The program morning line odds have absolutely nothing to do with a horse's probability to win the race. They also have nothing to do with his or her true level of contention in a race. True value is the function of attaching your own fair odds to your contenders. These fair odds are based on the insights and opinions you foster for each of your contenders in any given race. This is performing the Second Quarter; attaching value to your contenders."

Seems plain and simple to me.

If you like an 18/1 that's more than likely a value bet......but that would be your line or contender based on your opinion. My opinion may be otherwise.

JustMissed · 09-09-2006, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I think what he is saying is that you received a couple of replies from Overlay and GameTheory....I take it you were unsatisfied with their answers to your inquiry?

PA, After GT called me "dense" and referred to my wife in his post I felt he was getting a little too personal for a horseracing discussion and has nothing to offer as an example or illustration as to why Value Betting is more profitable than not using value betting.

I always appreciate Overlay's post and the others as well. If I did not respond to their post it was because I did not understand that they were asking me a direct question and I apoligize for that.

JM