a few more formula match up's 05/24/2006

[formula_2002]

bel 4th 6 beats the 7
cd 8th 4 beats the two
hol 2nd 2 beats the 6
hol 5th 6/7
Since I will judge the outcome based on actual wins/expected wins, I dont think I have to peg my picks to the ML.

expected wins = 1/(odds+1), where odds= final tote board odds.

Perhaps the NYRA can pick up on this kind of bet.
I see no mathematical risk for them (?)

[formula_2002]

Won but 1 one of 4 plays.

This is how the betting works.

Final tote board odds for each of the two horse's in the match play are converted to % of pool and then normalized. The nornalized % determines the size of the bet and payoff odds.


The plays and results for todays play are listed in the attached excel file.
If you have any questions about the data in the file, please ask.

[cj]

But you can't know the final odds when you bet. I'm baffled.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by cj

But you can't know the final odds when you bet. I'm baffled.

That's the good part, you don't. You are betting one horse against the other BEFORE the mutuel pools open and without seeing how others are betting or what match ups they are selecting.
Your bet will always be in proportion to the final tote board odds. All you have to do is find the better of the two horses that will give you the best ROI.

In the long run, a winning player will have more winners than the sum of the odds that were determined by the public.
actual winners/expected winners =roi.



Just a note, if you have down loaded the excel file, change some of the tote board odds in the "f" column and you'll gererate the match play odds.