Redboard warning

[Jake]

I apologized for redboarding here, but I found this play so apparent that I almost overdosed on coffee waiting for its arrival. In the 10th race at Fort Erie, the #3 Devilish Gold was 20-1 ML in a MCL $10,000. He goes off at 13-1, and ends up paying $29-$11-$8.50, with a $240 exacta and $1 PK for $478. The redboard here is that I managed to catch all three plays heavy.

On my numbers this horse had the best last speed rating, was dropping in class, coming back in under 14 days, with a positive jockey switch, showing a strong bet down pattern. The one apparent negative was the horse's running style, S with 0 speed points in a 6F maidnen sprint, but none of the remaining horses could match the 2nd call par, and only 3 horses could run ran to the late par. Two of these late pars horse were deep closers at the 2nd call, which is a toss in MCL sprints. The remaining late par horse was the #3 Devilish Gold.

I usually tap lightly in MCL races, but this is the kind of race that reminds you why you play this game and endure the hard losses.

Jake

[xfile]

You don't need to aplogize for redboarding. More players should practice it out loud. It's definitely a good sharpening tool.

[toetoe]

Jake,

I always try to explain why the odds are so high. Not to be a paranoiac, but big odds are sometimes suspicious as hell. At least he came down from his morning line. I guess in the long run it shouldn't matter. Just part of the psychological hell of horseplaying.

[Snag]

Jake, your post raises a question in my mind. How many of us really go back and look at a race and try to figure out why we got beat? You knew going in that yours was a good bet for you. I have the same feeling many times, only to come up on the losing end. I try to spend as much time as possible "redboarding" my figs to see why I lost. Does anyone else do this?

[Tom]

I spend some time going back overlosing races to see where I went wrong. Did I fogive too many pacelines, did I use one too good to be true, did I mis-judge form, etc. Not trying to backfit it to a win, but for my future info. I actually go as far as printing out a horse's PPs and marking them up with comments for both losing and winning races - I keep them in a notebook, and keep it around for light reading, especially when I used to fly a lot - made good layover reading.

[Jake]

Originally Posted by toetoe

Jake,

I always try to explain why the odds are so high. Not to be a paranoiac, but big odds are sometimes suspicious as hell. At least he came down from his morning line. I guess in the long run it shouldn't matter. Just part of the psychological hell of horseplaying.

Toetoe,

I agree that big ML odds can certainly play with your head. I don't have any cognitive bias against playing high actual odds horse, but very high ML odds are troubling. I can't remember playing another horse at 15-1 or higher ML odds as a single in the last year. A few years ago I did catch a high ML Sahadi horse at Hollywood either changing surfaces or stretching out (sorry, just can't remember which with all my gray hair) which paid over $100 to win--also a maiden race. So perhaps maiden races are more likely to have bad ML's, which may be an excellent research project. Interestingly enough, this horse's last race odds were 87-1, which might suggest the bet down was significant.

[Jake]

Originally Posted by Tom

I spend some time going back overlosing races to see where I went wrong. Did I fogive too many pacelines, did I use one too good to be true, did I mis-judge form, etc. Not trying to backfit it to a win, but for my future info. I actually go as far as printing out a horse's PPs and marking them up with comments for both losing and winning races - I keep them in a notebook, and keep it around for light reading, especially when I used to fly a lot - made good layover reading.

Tom,

It's a great suggestion. I use a very structured approach to playing, with much modeling already tested, so I'm pretty leery of looking at individual losses. But I'm always checking for bad play on my part. The big mistake that most players make, including myself, is not pulling the string with the correct wagering package. If the horse above loses at 13-1, I would have still called that a good bet with a bad outcome, because the horse was an good longshot play and was covered correctly. Knowing how to loosely-couple your models to your playing style is paramount. Of course, if the horses loses, this thread doesn't get posted!