Theories on "Form"

[Cesario!]

Does anyone have any novel approaches to measuring a horse's current form?

I'm interested in concepts determining when a horse may go "off" form (has won several races in a row and is about to plunge) or when a horse may make a sudden form reversal. Most casual bettors seem to be able to see improving form, but profits can be made from the overlays created by the horse which has peaked and will (most likely) not run to that level today.

Thanks!

Seth

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by Cesario!

Does anyone have any novel approaches to measuring a horse's current form?

I'm interested in concepts determining when a horse may go "off" form (has won several races in a row and is about to plunge) or when a horse may make a sudden form reversal. Most casual bettors seem to be able to see improving form, but profits can be made from the overlays created by the horse which has peaked and will (most likely) not run to that level today.

Thanks!

Seth

You've asked a mouthful! I could write a book on this subject.

Boxcar

[twindouble]

Originally Posted by boxcar

You've asked a mouthful! I could write a book on this subject.

Boxcar

Well?? I would expect no less of you, get on it!

[46zilzal]

I have found that when horse's show a progressive inability to apportion their run throughout the race, (they are getting earlier by % early or % median provided NO SIGNIFICANT TROUBLE was encountered) over a three race period, they are ready for a significant decline in form. The crowd OFTEN makes this type FAVORITES much to their chagrin.

You see this pattern over and over and is shown for the big favorite SLIDER in the 2nd race at Tampa on Jan 10th....

[Cesario!]

Originally Posted by boxcar

You've asked a mouthful! I could write a book on this subject.

Boxcar

I've come across your postings on previous threads, and I tend to agree with many of your conclusoins. I'd love any insights you'd like to share!

[Cesario!]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

I have found that when horse's show a progressive inability to apportion their run throughout the race, (they are getting earlier by % early or % median provided NO SIGNIFICANT TROUBLE was encountered) over a three race period, they are ready for a significant decline in form. The crowd OFTEN makes this type FAVORITES much to their chagrin.

You see this pattern over and over and is shown for the big favorite SLIDER in the 2nd race at Tampa on Jan 10th....

Fascinating. Is that simply a "percent energy distribution" calculation? Do you use a particular software package?

[46zilzal]

Sartin programs that base racing "energy" (sum of the velocities of three fractional periods) and then noting what energy distribution (% early is a relationship between 2nd call and final fraction) that horse ran the race.

USUALLY horse's jump all over the place within a range typical for them (% median wise) based upon their reaction to that race's pace, but when there is a steady increase in % median (and it is a SURE THING when accompanied by three lines of total energy going down) one really has to question what they will do today.

Two Sartin support groups can be found at www.yahoogroups.com under Sartin Alums or V/DC Messenger

[Cesario!]

I'm familiar with some Sartin concepts from Brohamer's Book. Thanks for the links.

It's interesting -- I've never put much stock in simply converting numbers (e.g. fps). But, I do find the energy distribution numbers slightly more hopeful than the others. My best monthly totals came during a month when I was really seeing horses as "tanks of energy" and subtracting items that could deplete this energy. For some reason, I left that concept and flirted with class for a while, but I think it's time to retun.

Another note: When I take the time to do the calculations by hand, my handicapping is more precise -- more so than using a program. It's kind of like, back in middle school, when you use to copy notes from an overhead. The process causes you to focus more on the data than simply looking it over.

[cato]

46--

I was wondering how many tracks you look at a day when using the Val (or other Sartin related program)?

It seems to me that the number woudl be limited (which is not a bad thing!) to allow one to pick up on all of the nuances you see.

Just curious, Cato

[46zilzal]

TWO per day but there is a pre-analysis screen that allows me to pick this up almost automatically.

Here is another from Aqueduct on Jan 2nd I believe in the nightcap

finale at the Big A SEVEN BELLSFORBARBARA going off 3/1 with Eibar Coa

last three lines
total median %
162.02 69.9
164.60 69.6
166.27 68.6

This one finished OUT

[46zilzal]

The most encouraging thing about using energy distribution is finding TRUE, repeating BIAS. After TESTING these programs at 30 or more tracks I have found FOUR that have such strong biases for weeks on end, that looking at one or two factors is all one has to do to be at the cashiers window.

It is astounding.

[xfile]

A thread on FORM i had a while ago.....might help:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=21891

[toetoe]

46,

7Bells' form should be read from bottom up, correct? Decreasing totals, increasing earlies, or what ever those %'s represent?

[Tom]

Our good friend Dave Schwartz offered up a very in depth look at pace a yar or so ago - do a search on form in posts by him and you will have some good reading.

[46zilzal]

MOST recent on top then they go back in history...The % median is much akin to % early