Sufferin looks at the 5th @Belmont.Park .7-5-02 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Suff · 07-04-2002, 11:15 PM

Golden Girl... #7... 94 beyer,, Jumps right off the page at me.. A low 80 has a chance to win the race,, so the 94 is a lock if she runs back to anything like her last right? WRONG!!! 8-5 morning line... probably go off at 4-5 or 1-1... 3-5 if saintly was'nt here,,, But I have some issues with that Beyer and this horse....

2nd last out to Graded placed Sixty One Marguex.. Sixty one Margeux is an Over rated horse if you ask me,, that Stakes she won was a lil $50K Job at Monmouth,, six horse field... whoop DEE DO... Thats a pretty over rated 2nd to a very over rated stakes race winner... OK good race,,, good horses,, BUT a 94 beyer against a Great Stakes horse ?? I don't think so and to back up that point... I took a look at Goldens Girls 2nd to 61 Marguex,,,, well Golden was 2nd at a solid 5-1 and the TRI paid $36 Bucks,, and about that last race.. a 2nd at this level it was a 7 horse field... one horse eased in Back stretch,,, and three others went off at over 20-1 and finished 20 lengths Plus back... so it was a two horse race between her and another 2-1 shot who she beat for place... Take away her lone win "IN THE SLOP" and she has lost three races at a combined 16 lengths....I'm betting her to be off the ticket..

I'm not betting Saintly Action either,,, 3-1 morning line,,, Has'nt raced Much at all... One race scince Nov 2001.. Hasn't beyered in the 80's.. needs two races to get her act together, in my opinion.... 3-1 Morning line.. no Value either... and LIfetime 6 races has never made up one inch in the stretch... not an inch...

Did anyone see #3 Lady Liberty run in the third at Belmont Today? 7-5 Favorite.... Absolutely got stone cold left in the gate... spotted the field 5 lengths at least and Damn near won the thing chasing some pretty decent Fractions,,, woulda won that race by 3 or more if she got out,,,

Well........... #4 Wishful Slpendor in this race has beaten Lady Liberty by 12 lengths in her last two,,, this horse in my opinion is a soon to be Great horse,,, Ive been watching her races.. she's a keeper and I Like her to win at first asking at this level .. I see two over rated favorites here and I'm keeping my fingers crossed that

I get above 6-1,,,, 8-1 would be lovely... Her beyers have improved in every race,,,Has early zip and shows a rating/tactical gear as well... get Nicky Zito,, not only hot at Belmont.. But knocking them Dead at Rockingham and Delaware as well,, he's on his "A GAME" this year. Also,, that horse that beat her two back..... Demonico cat.. ran a game 2nd at this level in her next out... another thing I like about Wishful is she's an early Foal ( Feb.) and is a tad more mature than your average 3 year old.. I like this horse to win this race,,, as far as 2nd and 3rd,, I have no idea,,,,I'll look them over on the track and the Tote before I decide

freeneasy · 07-05-2002, 01:54 AM

I think that might be the 6th

kent · 07-05-2002, 08:30 AM

As a pattern player check the race and see that every horse in the race that made a big move to a new top bounced! Three year old f ‘s??? (‘Wishful’ set a new top and is coming back in 21 days!) ‘Girl’ set a new top but is coming back in 35 days.

BUT, you are soo good, and I trust your judgment, plus Zito’s horses’ don’t bounce as often, the bounce just may not happen. If the bounce doesn’t and ‘Wishful’ just ‘pairs-up’ that last number she wins because ‘Girl’ will have trouble running to its last
fig.
In my opinion, the pattern horse that is ‘due’ is the closer ‘Lexiloush’ -- strong chance to be ‘in-the-money.’

Suff · 07-05-2002, 11:23 AM

yes,, that horse got a long look from me.. here's why i went off her... first .......was entered MTO yesterday and did'nt run.. Looking for a wet track for this horse I think... 2nd... won a Maiden 40,000 ,,,,,right? well Life time earning are $20,180... a 40K purse gets you 24 grand right there.. Plus two thirds in 75K and a 60K Claimers would grab another 3-6 thousand if the purses were near the value of the Race... so wheres the missing Ten Grand?.... those claiming races were probably for purses in the 25 grand range.. not 60 and 75 as advertised... I could look them up and know for sure But I am walking out the door to meet a friend at the track for lunch ... One other thing.. this horse appears to be a closer... agreed? Well she got her last two Fractions at a very fast 46 and 111 and did'nt get close to them in the stretch.. if she gets the 26 point beyer boost like she did between her first two starts 40 to 66.. Your right.. she wins.. Because I think thats the bounce she needs from her last 72... something around 88-92 puts her at the wire.... I see this horse as a low to mid level claimer... good luck.. we'll know in a few hours

Suff · 07-05-2002, 11:34 AM

yes,, that horse got a long look from me.. here's why i went off her... first .......was entered MTO yesterday and did'nt run.. Looking for a wet track for this horse I think... 2nd... won a Maiden 40,000 ,,,,,right? well Life time earning are $20,180... a 40K purse gets you 24 grand right there.. Plus two thirds in 75K and a 60K Claimers would grab another 3-6 thousand if the purses were near the value of the Race... so wheres the missing Ten Grand?.... those claiming races were probably for purses in the 25 grand range.. not 60 and 75 as advertised... I could look them up and know for sure But I am walking out the door to meet a friend at the track for lunch ... One other thing.. this horse appears to be a closer... agreed? Well she got her last two Fractions at a very fast 46 and 111 and did'nt get close to them in the stretch.. if she gets the 26 point beyer boost like she did between her first two starts 40 to 66.. Your right.. she wins.. Because I think thats the bounce she needs from her last 72... something around 88-92 puts her at the wire.... I see this horse as a low to mid level claimer... good luck.. we'll know in a few hours

melman · 07-05-2002, 11:47 AM

This is what makes PA' s board the BEST on the net. Great talk fella's and I like this race myself. I am a bias/trip/trainer player and the #4 Wishful Splendor fills the bill for me. 4/14 I have as a solid speed/rail bias day 5/10 I think will be a nice "key" race event. Lets hope for some nice odds as it looks like a "up the unit" bet for me.

freeneasy · 07-05-2002, 02:27 PM

on saintly action, it looks to me like Mott might want to win with this horse today. with 4 good works after her last race. the last was her worst race but mott doest give her a second sprint before routing her like he did in her route win. no, its one sprint, 4 works and route. maybe he thinks she doesnt need another sprint to be ready today. or hes going to use todays route as a second and last tuner for her next race just as Zito did with WS, sprint , route, next out win, if thats the case SA will be ready next time. But the question for me is, in her last race whose money was that at 9-5, probably the track after seeing her last two in graded races but if not then mott might have a ready horse today

Wishful is in fine fettle right now, and had a very nice look in dealing with those very honest fractions. its looks as though she only needed an 80 to win last out and didnt need to do better then the 82 she ran 2nd back, and has just started to unleash. At 6,7,8-1 all you gotta do is look back to yesterdays 7th, with an unbelieving crowd letting Bronze Autumn get off at 8-1

MGG, should be favored and you wont get 2-1. she should be favored because she has visably done what the rest of the field hasnt. and perhaps she could have run that 94 beyer in her md. win but didnt even have to come close todoing so. if thats the case and with 5 steady on the button works, ala Charlie Whittingham, then I make her one tough girl to beat today

andicap · 07-05-2002, 03:37 PM

Fascinating betting action. The 5, Saintly Action is not getting bet at all. It's all on the 7, who looks like a total monster here. 35 days to recover, a pace figure that outdoes everyone in this race, My Golden Girl looks unbeatable. There is not much pace in this race, so MGG should be nice and comfortable, plus she has several recent works, nicely spaced.

Saintly Action has some negatives and positives -- last racea total throwout since the pace was pretty steep and it should be easier today. Still a really poor race. Now getting some late action -- kiss of death, no early betting then some late action when the public thinks it has a good bet.

I'm not that big of a fan of the 4 although she has a great pattern. Still only 21 days ago and fillies ususaly need more time. Also here early figs aren't great in a race with little speed.

I like the 2 a little bit, Call an Audible, although her form cycle is not ideal for this kind. She's an improving sort, with competitive figs. Any improvement at all puts her right there at 11-1 (7 min to post).

I'll key the 2 with the 5 and 7 and bet her WP as well.
I'll play the 7-4 and 4-7 as savers to break even as well.

Suff · 07-05-2002, 10:05 PM

Looks like Free N easy was on to something Because I thought Saintly Had Golden Girl in the stretch... Saintly RAN a race,, could'nt believe GG held her off,, sure enough Mott had the horse ready.. But GG proved she is for real... All DAY LONG chalk got whooped,, The one race I seriously don't like the chalk it runs like they bet it 7-5... ow well,,, was fun trying,, Had the 7 in some pick three's anyway.. they paid a Ham sandwich and a cup of coffee,, But I had it... always tommorrow