First off the claim....

[Turfday]

Checking my database, and using a large sample size of "60" claims over the last three-year period, it is remarkable to see that there are at least 15 trainers in North America and Canada that still win at a .30% clip first off the claim...no handicapping involved.

Using a smaller sample size of "30" claims over the last three-year period (average about 10 claims per year), it's just as remarkable to see that there are about 27 trainers in North America and Canada that win at the same .30% clip first off the claim. Again, no handicapping involved.

Good gosh. Those are very impressive win percentage stats. I'm not talking about 20% or 25%...which would still be very good.

I'm been around the game a long time. It was never like this "back in the day." These stats show how the claiming game has evolved. And, perhaps it proves a further separation of trainers either being "haves" or "have nots."

[kenwoodallpromos]

What % of those 30% were favs last out or current race? If they were longshots current race, let me know which trainers!!

[hurrikane]

Bob,

I agree is has grown. I'm not so sure there weren't trainers like that back then (when was the day?) but there were not big barns like there are now claiming horses all over the country. Not many trainers were claiming 30 horses.

Ken, I think if you want that information it could be bought. Right Bob?

[Turfday]

Hurrikane...

In the "days of yore," with few exceptions, trainers played the claiming game differently. You're right, I don't think there were nearly as many "big barns" that were loaded with horses and as easily replenished nowadays.

The "super trainers"...the ones that are also in the claiming game...aided by rule changes as well, now think nothing of dropping down horses one or more levels to garner a win.

Instead of worrying about "protecting" useful horses from being claimed, it's now simply a no-brainer to drop these horses just for a win and without care of losing them. Reason: they'll simply claim another one.

As you pointed out, and from the facts above you enlightened me into acknowledging, certainly are not part of any statistical study.

However, it still boggles my mind that there are guys like this, who are WINNING FIRST OFF THE CLAIM at an incredible clip and yet, the average win mutuel of these first off the claim winners is still quite high.

Based on 60 or more claims within the last three years (a good sample size to insure some relevancy), it still boggles my mind at the AVERAGE WIN MUTUELS first off claim some of these trainers are getting:

Troy Bainum 126 claims / 51 wins (40%) / AWM $10.00

Steve Krebs 73 claims / 18 wins (25%) / AWM $12.00

Cody Autrey 73 claims / 21 wins (29%) / AWM $ 9.00

Rich. Dutrow 124 claims / 46 wins (37%) / AWM $ 7.00

The above are just a sample. Other trainers winning at a very high clip first off the claim ACCOMPANIED by an AVERAGE win mutuel of $8.00 or more are John Charles Zimmerman, William E. Morey, Steve Miyadi, Craig Robertson and Tom Amoss.

[toetoe]

Wow. I loved Banjo Picker, not knowing that Krebs was especially proficient at anything, and not even knowing Tara H.'s gender.

[RaceIsClosed]

Originally Posted by Turfday

Hurrikane...

In the "days of yore," with few exceptions, trainers played the claiming game differently. You're right, I don't think there were nearly as many "big barns" that were loaded with horses and as easily replenished nowadays.

The "super trainers"...the ones that are also in the claiming game...aided by rule changes as well, now think nothing of dropping down horses one or more levels to garner a win.

Instead of worrying about "protecting" useful horses from being claimed, it's now simply a no-brainer to drop these horses just for a win and without care of losing them. Reason: they'll simply claim another one.

As you pointed out, and from the facts above you enlightened me into acknowledging, certainly are not part of any statistical study.

However, it still boggles my mind that there are guys like this, who are WINNING FIRST OFF THE CLAIM at an incredible clip and yet, the average win mutuel of these first off the claim winners is still quite high.

Based on 60 or more claims within the last three years (a good sample size to insure some relevancy), it still boggles my mind at the AVERAGE WIN MUTUELS first off claim some of these trainers are getting:

Troy Bainum 126 claims / 51 wins (40%) / AWM $10.00

Steve Krebs 73 claims / 18 wins (25%) / AWM $12.00

Cody Autrey 73 claims / 21 wins (29%) / AWM $ 9.00

Rich. Dutrow 124 claims / 46 wins (37%) / AWM $ 7.00

The above are just a sample. Other trainers winning at a very high clip first off the claim ACCOMPANIED by an AVERAGE win mutuel of $8.00 or more are John Charles Zimmerman, William E. Morey, Steve Miyadi, Craig Robertson and Tom Amoss.

Just a note: Krebs is a former assistant to Scott Lake who used to take over his horses whenever Lake was caught behaving badly.

[CryingForTheHorses]

A very big factor you are all forgeting,SINCE they changed the claiming rule..Before you had to raise your claim 25% for 30 days.You can now claim a horse that smokes for 10k,Take him home and 10 days later be the favorite again, For 10k, Win and lose him. Claiming hot horses and running them back fast can net a owner a fast profit with the purse.Claiming horses are damaged goods, You have to STRIKE when the iron is hot..

[alysheba88]

The juice guys are especially deadly off the claim. No surprise to see Dutrow there. Notorious for getting rapid improvement

[GaryG]

The Cat Man is at 35% but everything he sends out gets hammered to death at the windows. Claims away from him are virtually winless. I met him several years ago and he is a fine, humble man. Say it ain't so Wayne...

[DrugSalvastore]

Originally Posted by RaceIsClosed

Just a note: Krebs is a former assistant to Scott Lake who used to take over his horses whenever Lake was caught behaving badly.

Yea, Krebs also won a stake at AQU with a nearly $100 horse over the weekend.

He was A TRIP when he came on AOL!! His behavior would put Steve-O's to shame I think...

He would start a daily thread about how Scott Lake was the best trainer of all-time. He would insult everyone (even me!) he could. A female trainer who posted there, he threatened to put all her horses in Stable Mail, and claim every horse off her, just so she could see "a real trainer move up your horses."

A poster finally responded to his threads about Scott Lake being the greatest ever--by mentioning they felt Lake "juiced." Krebs replied "Yea so what, do you think Frankel and Mandella don't juice?" Anyway, someone got the bright idea to put the guys name through a search engine, and they found out he was an old Lake assistant. That bit of information, made his comments very interesting. Basically, the guy who saddled horses for Scott Lake, responded to accusations of Lake cheating, by basically saying 'so what, you are naive if you think other trainers don't do it.'

My favorite line of his was this one: "When you are as good as I am, you can spend all day on the computer and still win at a 20% clip."

[46zilzal]

that big time horse at the big A figured (9th on the 18th?)

[Tom Barrister]

Originally Posted by DrugSalvastore

My favorite line of his was this one: "When you are as good as I am, you can spend all day on the computer and still win at a 20% clip."

Sounds like King Leatherbury. Don't know if he uses a computer, but he did his training out of an office for decades. Probably still does.

[jotb]

Originally Posted by DrugSalvastore

Yea, Krebs also won a stake at AQU with a nearly $100 horse over the weekend.

He was A TRIP when he came on AOL!! His behavior would put Steve-O's to shame I think...

He would start a daily thread about how Scott Lake was the best trainer of all-time. He would insult everyone (even me!) he could. A female trainer who posted there, he threatened to put all her horses in Stable Mail, and claim every horse off her, just so she could see "a real trainer move up your horses."

A poster finally responded to his threads about Scott Lake being the greatest ever--by mentioning they felt Lake "juiced." Krebs replied "Yea so what, do you think Frankel and Mandella don't juice?" Anyway, someone got the bright idea to put the guys name through a search engine, and they found out he was an old Lake assistant. That bit of information, made his comments very interesting. Basically, the guy who saddled horses for Scott Lake, responded to accusations of Lake cheating, by basically saying 'so what, you are naive if you think other trainers don't do it.'

My favorite line of his was this one: "When you are as good as I am, you can spend all day on the computer and still win at a 20% clip."

Hello:

Yeah, he did work for Lake. He was on his own before Lake and didn't have a clue then and unfortunately, I have to say, he still does not have a clue after leaving Lake. I know he has a decent win% but remember that does not make him a good horsemen. He's one of those trainers that show up at the barn at 9am after eveything has went to the track.

Joe

[jotb]

Originally Posted by toetoe

Wow. I loved Banjo Picker, not knowing that Krebs was especially proficient at anything, and not even knowing Tara H.'s gender.

Yeah thank the Good Lord the track was playing the way it was, otherwise you would not have found that horse with a search warrant. He was not the price he was because he looked good on paper. Luckily Hemmings and horse did not come down. Horse was getting out in the stretch when Tara went left-handed but luckily she used common sense and refrained using the stick right after that.

Joe

[RaceIsClosed]

Originally Posted by jotb

Hello:

Yeah, he did work for Lake. He was on his own before Lake and didn't have a clue then and unfortunately, I have to say, he still does not have a clue after leaving Lake. I know he has a decent win% but remember that does not make him a good horsemen. He's one of those trainers that show up at the barn at 9am after eveything has went to the track.

Joe

Krebs has quite the clue. When his horses win, they do so decisively, and he has a profitable ROI in several categories.

A lot of handicapping Philadelphia Park involves knowing which trainers can defeat guys like Krebs. There are maybe six of them at Philadelphia Park who can do so reliably. Krebs is a very strong trainer and especially dangerous at a price, or with recent claims.