Hurricane Wilma--Florida residents please monitor - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

BetHorses! · 10-18-2005, 01:20 AM

Six weeks left of this record breaking season and although currently a trop storm Wilma will become a Hurricane. The historic Hurricane Season of 2005 now has the distinction of being the busiest ever. Wilma's formation Monday morning gives 2005 21 named storms, equaling the mark set in 1933.

Here's what the models Early predictions say:

Candian model: Friday, Sarasota
GFS model: Saturday, Florida Keys
NOGAPS model: Saturday, Florida Keys
GFDL model: Sunday, Tampa
UKMET model: Wilma stalls out over the Yucatan at day 6; eventual track after that not known.

Alpha next, additional storms will take names from the Greek alphabet: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and so on.

BetHorses! · 10-18-2005, 11:23 PM

16 mb pressure drop in last 3 hours. Looks like it will become CAT 4 or CAT 5 very soon. However, eye is very small and should go thru replacement cycle and it probably will weaken to a CAT 3 (still Major) before hitting Florida due to shear.

Reminds me of Rita

BetHorses! · 10-19-2005, 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BetHorses!

16 mb pressure drop in last 3 hours. Looks like it will become CAT 4 or CAT 5 very soon. However, eye is very small and should go thru replacement cycle and it probably will weaken to a CAT 3 (still Major) before hitting Florida due to shear.

Reminds me of Rita

I posted this last night before bed and when I woke up she is now the most intense storm ever in the Atlantic.....882 mb wow!

Now we better pray she weakens

lsbets · 10-19-2005, 08:21 AM

It looks like they are projecting it to take a big right turn in the Gulf and hit Florida. What are the chances that it just continues going north?

BetHorses! · 10-19-2005, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lsbets

It looks like they are projecting it to take a big right turn in the Gulf and hit Florida. What are the chances that it just continues going north?

It looks like the Upper level High will weaken and she will begin to move more Northwest, then North and then NorthEast. So I say the chances are less then 10% she will continue to move North.

She is a very small storm. Hurricane winds only extend out 15 miles compared to 70 miles for Rita and 105 miles for Katrina.

CryingForTheHorses · 10-19-2005, 07:35 PM

Living in Hollywood Florida, I just spent 45 minutes at the propane place to fill my cylinder for the BBQ in case the power goes out,The Home Depot man is making big bucks at this moment selling wood and whatever, Gas lines this evening were long,Going to the grocery store is also taxing, Mandatory evacuations will start tomorrow for the keys, All tourists and non-residents were asked to leave today...Schools will be closd tomorow in Momroe county I hate to think of what may happen at Calder and to the new grandstand at Gulfstream,I sure hope it weakens!!

kenwoodallpromos · 10-19-2005, 08:46 PM

Good luck on missing it Tom! How is the weather affecting your horse training?

BetHorses! · 10-20-2005, 12:20 AM

Here's my take on this right now

Some models have been flip flopping which means unreliable to me. She is forcasted to be over warm waters for at least 36 hrs and is completing eye wall replacement cycle (weakening) so restrengthening can continue. It looks like Florida but nobody knows where right now and even if she weakens to Cat 3 there still can be a cat 5 storm surge which is very bad news.

Interesting note, a couple of the consistant models have her racing off towards Long Island and New England at Cat 2 strength after crossing Florida

BetHorses! · 10-21-2005, 12:03 PM

I will not be able to post any more updates on this storm the rest of the weekend but depending how much time it spends over land is crucial to Wilma's next path. I feel it can be anywhere from a CAT 3 down to a CAT 1 storm due to dry air and shear it will encounter as it turns to the East. If it stays over land in Mexico and stalls it can miss Florida totally to the south.

My prayers for the stranded people on Cozumel Island and I think this will be Mexico's worst hurricane disaster ever.

Tom · 10-21-2005, 11:10 PM

It's battering Mexico (Cancun) tonight. Could be there a while.
Sustained winds over 145 mph!
Looking at Tuesday now for Florida.

Maybe it will blow a few of our jobs back north!

CryingForTheHorses · 10-23-2005, 02:52 PM

Here we go again, Looks like Naples is going to get the eye, The rest of South Florida onthe backside of this Hurricane, Racing cancelled at Calder tomorrow,They are going to run Mondays card of fri with a couple of extra races from fridays "in the book" races.Hate these things as they do a lot of damage,Calder still havent got some of the barn roofs fixed from Hurricane Katrina, I myself put a 50lb bag of oats and a 5 gallon bucket of water on my roof to keep it from flapping in the wind,Cant nail steel roof into steel beam!! spooking my horses and others in my barn.Wish us luck guys as Im sure the power will be out here in Hollywood in the morn!!

Tom · 10-23-2005, 04:43 PM

Good luck, Tom.

BetHorses! · 10-24-2005, 12:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McSchell_Racing

Here we go again, Looks like Naples is going to get the eye, The rest of South Florida onthe backside of this Hurricane, Racing cancelled at Calder tomorrow,They are going to run Mondays card of fri with a couple of extra races from fridays "in the book" races.Hate these things as they do a lot of damage,Calder still havent got some of the barn roofs fixed from Hurricane Katrina, I myself put a 50lb bag of oats and a 5 gallon bucket of water on my roof to keep it from flapping in the wind,Cant nail steel roof into steel beam!! spooking my horses and others in my barn.Wish us luck guys as Im sure the power will be out here in Hollywood in the morn!!

Good Luck

Forward speed is increasing so it will blow out fast but Tornadoes AHEAD of the eye is what to watch out for. Storm surge along west coast especially Key West will be bad.

She is intensifying and eye is contracting which is bad news

boxcar · 10-24-2005, 01:50 AM

The wind is starting to pick up where I am. Mayfield is saying that the storm will exit West Palm Beach -- but I'm thinkin' that's just a tad bit too far north. It appears the eye will hit slightly south of Naples on the west coast, and I'm thinking it will exit north Broward County or South Palm Beach County on the opposite coast.

Thankfully, it's moving fast, so we shouldn't get too much rain, nor very much wind damage usually associated with a lingering storm.

Boxcar

CryingForTheHorses · 10-24-2005, 04:36 AM

Whowee!!..Wind is howling like I have never seen it, Rain is starting to come down, Still have power so far!!...Have to get in my truck to go feed and look after my horses, Have to get there fast, Hope everybody in this path makes it out safe, I have 3 horses to run on Sunday, Hope they make it safe, Ill keep posting as long as I have power..120mph winds...Glad it is moving fast..