GL8 factor

[andicap]

In Ken Massa's May HTR newsletter, he presents an interesting method for calculating a horse's consistency and quality. The "GL8 rating" is a way of rating how good a horse's recent record is. Massa's theory is that traditional ways of judging "good" efforts are misleading.
His rules: go back 8 races. In each race, award a horse 1 point if they meet any of the following three conditions:
-- was on or within 1 length of lead at 2nd call
-- on or within 2 lengths of lead at stretch call.
-- won or finished within 3 lengths.

He then presents statistical evidence to show the validity of the method although he says it is not by itself an angle, but, like Quirin points, a way to evaluate a field.

My question: Can you judge the ability of a field by calcuating the GL 8 of each horse and arriving at a median or average, and use it as a tool to decide if a field was above or below average in quality compared to today's?

[Derek2U]

sure u can ...... in fact, lets face it, that could be a Very useful
way of measuring field-class

[ranchwest]

In a general sort of way, I guess this would work, but I doubt it would tell you much more than a reading of the conditions of the race.

Also, have you ever looked through the PPs and come across a well-known horse in the top 3 finishers? That horse might look awful in a positioning analysis, but might actually be a contender in today's race. Positions don't say much about class.

[GR1@HTR]

Good idea AC. I will look into it for non mdn races and see what comes about.

[alyingthief]

andi:

ken massa sent me a demo and code to download a bunch of files to work through his program, but i never did. how do you like it?