Belemy Road Shelved - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

OTM Al · 09-12-2005, 12:56 PM

So much for the pundits that were predicting him to win the BC Classic

http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=29970

lsbets · 09-12-2005, 01:15 PM

I hate to say this, but the Classic is shaping up to be a race of who cares. The top 3 YOs - out, the top older horses - retired. Second string for the Classic this year.

OTM Al · 09-12-2005, 01:20 PM

Hey.....Funny Cide's got a shot!!!!!!

kev · 09-12-2005, 01:28 PM

Oh I guess Nick Z. can put in Comm. now, unless there's going to any other speed horses, don't want that to happen again.

Suff · 09-12-2005, 01:56 PM

on the face of it, it seems like a good move.

How many times have we seen a superior 2YO come back for his 3YO campaign, run a couple of poor races, and 6 months later he's in for 25 Grand at Delaware park. There are 4Yo colts running for 12,500 at Suffolk Downs that sold for 1.3 million just 2 years before.

It is all about the legs. A colt runs great at 2 or 3, then puts on 400 pounds, grows 2 hands......but the legs don't mature to handle that body. They run them....and the leg problems begin. Bone chips, spurs, altered gate (walk) and other leg aliments. If the problem works itself up to the horses back.... He's done.

Leg bones respond prematurely to the added stress of racing. The bone will grow at a rate corresponding to the stress. Frequently the bones grow to rapidly , lacking the strength needed to be a race horse.

Frequently a trainer will go right into the bone and shave it down. They shave off the immature portion of the bone. Then they turn them out to the farm for 6 months in the hopes that the bone will mature more slowly and stronger.

JustRalph · 09-12-2005, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OTM Al

Hey.....Funny Cide's got a shot!!!!!!

good for him!!!

andicap · 09-12-2005, 03:05 PM

So if Bellamy Road were just an ordinary claimer or NW1, do you think they (the editorial "they", not referring specifically to Zito) would keep running him?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Suff

on the face of it, it seems like a good move.

How many times have we seen a superior 2YO come back for his 3YO campaign, run a couple of poor races, and 6 months later he's in for 25 Grand at Delaware park. There are 4Yo colts running for 12,500 at Suffolk Downs that sold for 1.3 million just 2 years before.

It is all about the legs. A colt runs great at 2 or 3, then puts on 400 pounds, grows 2 hands......but the legs don't mature to handle that body. They run them....and the leg problems begin. Bone chips, spurs, altered gate (walk) and other leg aliments. If the problem works itself up to the horses back.... He's done.

Leg bones respond prematurely to the added stress of racing. The bone will grow at a rate corresponding to the stress. Frequently the bones grow to rapidly , lacking the strength needed to be a race horse.

Frequently a trainer will go right into the bone and shave it down. They shave off the immature portion of the bone. Then they turn them out to the farm for 6 months in the hopes that the bone will mature more slowly and stronger.

Suff · 09-12-2005, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andicap

So if Bellamy Road were just an ordinary claimer or NW1, do you think they (the editorial "they", not referring specifically to Zito) would keep running him?

Actually, I think most outfits would retire him. But Concerto (his sire ) only stands for $5000, (up from $3500 last year) and was an also ran in the Derby one year.

I think if they thought they could get $25,000 plus out of the gate they might be inclined to do that. Not sure if the lone GRD1 win and 120 beyer translates into a substansial stud fee.

I believe they only paid 78 grand for him and he is two or three big wins away from bringing in Bacon. They make some Noise about his line to DISCOVERY... but that isn't resonating with anyone. yet.

I think many outfits would indeed continue to race him.....3 or 4 times a year. Steinbrenner does'nt need the money so many issues other owners may face do not exist.

A lot of Horses that get announced as "recuperating" and coming back , never do anyway.

DJofSD · 09-12-2005, 08:52 PM

So which horse will the media over hype now?

DJofSD

michiken · 09-12-2005, 10:17 PM

Pretty soon he will be racing next to Shake You Down at Charlestown???

KingChas · 09-12-2005, 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lsbets

I hate to say this, but the Classic is shaping up to be a race of who cares. The top 3 YOs - out, the top older horses - retired. Second string for the Classic this year.

Kinda makes you wonder about which BC race "Lost In The Fog" will run in,Huh?Interesting

DrugSalvastore · 09-13-2005, 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KingChas

Kinda makes you wonder about which BC race "Lost In The Fog" will run in,Huh?Interesting

I think you are suggesting that Lost in the Fog might consider running in the Classic.....

I think there is a 0% chance of that---and if he did go---I have some serious doubts about him being able to see out the ten furlong distance.

I think Lost In the Fog is very eligible to be a good turf miler---but this is the wrong year to even toy with the idea of trying him in the Mile. The only race that makes sense for LITF on Breeder's Cup day is the Sprint.

This isn't exactly a good group of older sprinters racing this year---and six furlong races at Belmont Park fit LITF's style very nicely.

lsbets · 09-13-2005, 10:02 AM

After resisting all the Triple Crown temptations with LITF, I agree with Drug S, there is a 0% chance that his connections run him in the Classic.

DrugSalvastore · 09-13-2005, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lsbets

After resisting all the Triple Crown temptations with LITF, I agree with Drug S, there is a 0% chance that his connections run him in the Classic.

No doubt! I REALLY hope Andy (TLG) isn't in an argumentative mood still. If he is, maybe we can get real lucky and he'll miss this post, and with it a point that I want to make about the Breeders Cup Sprint and Belmont Park!

They have run the Breeders Cup Sprint three times at Belmont Park. Below is what happened all three times!

* 1st running at BEL in '90. The team of Safely Kept and Dayjur race 1-2 all the way around the track and produce a $181.40 exacta. The best finish of the closers is by 3rd place finisher Black Tie Affiar who rallies from 8th to finish 3rd at 53-to-1 odds. BTA wins his next start at 8-to-1 odds. In the following year Black Tie Affair goes on to capture 7 Graded Stakes wins, including the BC Classic with a 120 Beyer, and the honor of '91 Horse of the Year.

* 2nd running at BEL in '95. Desert Stormer (14-to-1 and part of the field) goes wire-to-wire. 31-to-1 longshot Mr. Greeley runs 2nd at every call of the race and finishes 2nd. These two LITERALLY race 1-2 the entire way around the track and produce a $733.00 exacta. The best finish of the closers in this race is by longshot 3rd place finisher Lit De Justice. LDJ returns to win his next start on dirt by 5.5 lengths--and goes on to win the Breeders Cup Sprint the following year, and gets named champion sprinter as well.

* 3rd running at BEL in '01. Everyone is sure that a speed duel between fleet-footed types Xtra Heat, Caller One, and Squirtle Squirt will set it up for closers. But, the team of Xtra Heat, Caller One, and Squirtle Squirt are 1-2-3 at every call, and they produce a $2,162.00 trifecta! The best finish by a closer in the race is by 4th place finisher Swept Overboard. He wins his next start, and the next time S.O. runs at BEL, he wins the Met Mile in a blowout, at 11-to-1 odds, with a 122 Beyer figure. The 5th place finisher in this Sprint is Left Bank. He earns the comment "finished well." He wins the Eclipse Award for champion older horse the next year.

If history is any indication--I think it fair to say that taking a deep closer in this year's BC Sprint may not be such a great idea. That is why I said in an earlier post that Lost In The Fog's style suits him very well in the BC Sprint at Belmont.

BTW, I've obviously seen the film of the '90 race. Safely Kept made the lead, Dayjur fought it away from her, and when it looked like Dayjur was headed to a hard-fought victory, he twice jumped shadows, costing him all chance.

lsbets · 09-13-2005, 11:22 AM

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't LITF need to be supplemented to the Breeder's Cup? And doesn't the Classic carry a higher supplement than the Sprint? I just don't see the connections paying a huge supplement for a horse to do something he's never done before and they know he is not cut out to do.

Will LITF win the Sprint? Who knows, he never faces anyone, everyone is scared to run against him. But he's fast and he loves to win, and he loves the lead, which as you pointed out is probably going to be a pretty good place to be at Belmont. I'll be excited to see that race even if he's a low price because he might turn out to be a great sprinter. But I can't see myself getting excited for the Classic, its starting to look like the NFL strike season where they used the scab players.