The stretch call-last race - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

BELMONT 6-6-09 · 04-26-2005, 05:11 PM

Is their any significant info concerning the position and/or lengths behind of a horses last race if a losing effort.? Any statistical info that would point to a certain standard to indicate a "live horse" for today's race using this last race stretch call numbers.Thank you in advance for any responses.

Overlay · 04-26-2005, 06:28 PM

Statistics that I have seen have indicated a positive effect in their next start for horses which either led, or trailed the leader, by one length or less at the last two calls of their most recent race; or else had a clear lead of more than one length at the stretch call, but ended up winning or losing the race by a neck or less. The positive effect was even more pronounced if the close competition for the lead was present at the last three calls of the latest race, or if the horse again had a clear lead at the call point two calls before the finish, but again ended up winning or losing the race by a neck or less, while losing ground at the stretch call.

grahors · 04-26-2005, 06:33 PM

Hey Zappster,
Wm Scott uses stretch loss as an indicator of a declining horse, but under only certain circumstances.
Horse is "up close" at the stretch call and loses 1 or more lengths from the stretch call to the finish.
some exceptions are.
1. not up close and loses....already a form defect in Scott's eyes.
2. last race is first after a lay off. May be running short as they say.
3. running a shorter dist today as compared to last by 1 furlong or more.
(look between the 2nd call and stretch call for the loss ( defect)
Up close is...sprints less than 3 lengths from leader. Routes-less than 5 lengths.
Just some thougths.
Grahors

JackS · 04-26-2005, 08:07 PM

Sometimes we can look at the Beyers or track rating and variant and make a pretty good judgment as to how a horse might run today.
Even without a set of pars, probable losers can be spotted.
Last weekend at GP , a very weak maiden race had a very weak horse as the 6/5 favorite. His beyer was in the upper 30's and a track /var of 56/28. His last running line looked sometime like this: 2by2, 4,by4 ,4by3 . As mentioned, this was a super weak race today and at first glance this horse was THE logical win contender.
In the same race was a horse(2ndTS) that looked something like this: 12/12,-12-12, 12-12 going off at 20+/1.
In the first instance, we have a horse who appeared to try to compete against other very slow horses and couldn't even hit the board. An easy toss in my mind.
In the second instance, we have a question mark. This horse made no effort at all in his first start so the question was -If he did make an effort, how would he run? At the very nice odds he was worth a bet. I Keyed him and hit a very nice exacta after throwing the favorite out. BTW this longshot ran 2nd.

kenwoodallpromos · 04-27-2005, 01:42 AM

Since lengths back is always in relation to the winner, I would assume class/purse level matters a lot.
My personal opinion is non-winners are 5-7 points shortchanged in the figures. Except maybe CJ's!

grahors · 04-27-2005, 07:46 AM

Interesting...so would you add 5-7 points or lengths to whatever figs you are using as a projection? Strictly stretch call or all calls?
Grahors

Valuist · 04-27-2005, 09:46 AM

I think stretch gain is probably the most overrated factor in racing (at least on the dirt). I think a far better angle is horses who make huge moves to contest the lead to midstretch then back off late. Often these horses make better timed moves next time out and get the money.

andicap · 04-27-2005, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valuist

I think stretch gain is probably the most overrated factor in racing (at least on the dirt). I think a far better angle is horses who make huge moves to contest the lead to midstretch then back off late. Often these horses make better timed moves next time out and get the money.

agree and disagree.
Agree to extent that most "systems" put much emphasis on last-race stretch gain. And you'll make more money focusing on horses that weakened in the stretch after big earlier moves.
BUT,
Not stretch gain per se, but very strong final fraction moves accompanied by the horse pressing a good pace can be a nice sign of a horse rounding into form. I especially like to see it in a turf race if a horse had been expending his energy too early in recent races and is now learning how to be more sustained. (unless it's the rare, hard turf course that favors early or presser speed.)

I do agree that stretch gains can be terribly overrated if a sustained horse was 8 lengths in back of a slow pace. Of course after running 50 -- 114 he'll have enough juice to come home very very fast and pick up a few out of shape stragglers. His line may look like this 8/9 8/8 7/7 5/4

Gained 3 lengths in the stretch and everyone will say, "he was compromised by a slow pace and still gained in the stretch."

Yeah, but he also benefitted from the slow pace!!!

headhawg · 04-27-2005, 11:56 AM

zappi,

If you are really interested in a type of stretch gain methodology, you can search this board for references to Jim Lehane's Calibration Handicapping. Very good ideas in his book about this topic.

His web site is http://www.free-horseracing-info.com/

HH

kenwoodallpromos · 04-27-2005, 11:52 PM

Any speed figures that uses 1 length= 1/5 second is only talking about the non-leader or non-winner. They are calculating at 40' per second. Horses run about 25% faster than that, and nons- can cover 1 1/4 lengths in 1/5th second. In Beyer's figs 5-7 points is about 1/2 second. I figure if a horses is 8 lengths back, it is shortchanged about 1/2 second because it can run 64' in about 1.1 seconds, not 1.6. This depends slightly of course on the pace and distance of the race, and the the actual lengths behind and width the horse in question ran.

NoDayJob · 04-28-2005, 03:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kenwoodallpromos

Any speed figures that uses 1 length= 1/5 second is only talking about the non-leader or non-winner. They are calculating at 40' per second. Horses run about 25% faster than that, and nons- can cover 1 1/4 lengths in 1/5th second. In Beyer's figs 5-7 points is about 1/2 second. I figure if a horses is 8 lengths back, it is shortchanged about 1/2 second because it can run 64' in about 1.1 seconds, not 1.6. This depends slightly of course on the pace and distance of the race, and the the actual lengths behind and width the horse in question ran.

The rule of thumb, 1 length per 1/5 sec. was based on a horse running 6 furlongs in 1:12 (72 secs.). 3960' / 72 = 55'/sec. I believe the Busch Draft horses could run faster than 40'/sec. A horse running 8 lengths behind would be running at approximately 54'/sec. depending on what you define as a horse's length. The standards that support the rail are supposed to represent a length and are about 10' apart.

NDJ

kenwoodallpromos · 04-28-2005, 01:42 PM

Just check any horserace sites you want and then tell me what your resource is for 10' lengths. Their definitions range from 8-9'
10' rails at 1/5 second = 50' per second. 11' at 1/5 second = 55'.
Part of the reason non-winners are overlays and can beat winners. betting based on wives' tales and inaccuracies.

kenwoodallpromos · 04-28-2005, 02:00 PM

"LENGTH- Length of a horse from nose to tail, about 8 feet. Also distance between horses in a race."

chickenhead · 04-28-2005, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kenwoodallpromos

Any speed figures that uses 1 length= 1/5 second is only talking about the non-leader or non-winner. They are calculating at 40' per second. Horses run about 25% faster than that, and nons- can cover 1 1/4 lengths in 1/5th second. In Beyer's figs 5-7 points is about 1/2 second. I figure if a horses is 8 lengths back, it is shortchanged about 1/2 second because it can run 64' in about 1.1 seconds, not 1.6. This depends slightly of course on the pace and distance of the race, and the the actual lengths behind and width the horse in question ran.

Ken, the finish beaten lengths, and ONLY the finish beaten lengths, ARE exactly 0.2 sec per length, plus and minus the margin of error of the way they do it.

The "finish beaten lengths" aren't beaten lengths at all, they are the time of the winning horse, minus the time of the horse in question, with every 0.2 seconds difference representing one length. That is it. They are NOT "beaten lengths".

Internal calls are a totally different beast, and have nothing to do with Beyers.

kenwoodallpromos · 04-29-2005, 01:22 AM

You are correct. Beyers was just 1 example I used. And the original post of this thread about the stretch call is not the same as the finish. My point was if 8' per 1/5 second is used regardless of where in the race we are talking, it is off a certain amount, the more lengths back the more inaccurate.
Lengths gained between the stretch call and finish IMO is important if you understand each horse's relative fading and if that is normal horse the horse in question.
In the SA Derby where Indian Charlie won and was the KY Derby favorite, Real Quiet actually gained 2 lengths in the SA Derby stretch. That gain was very important because it indicated RQ was improving, and because Baffert said IC came out of the race "a little tired". RQ won the KY Derby at 8-1, Victory Gallop was second and Indian Charlie was third.