spot-plays/angles

[xippy]

I'm looking for 1 or 2 good spot-plays for horses 5-1 and up. I would be thrilled with a 10% win rate. I just do not have the time to handicap anymore, so am looking for some input from the forum.

thank you!

[keilan]

Would you like a coke to go with that?

[xippy]

Clever retort.
Sorry to waste your time. I did not realize my post was inappropriate for this forum

[John]

Xippy,

Are you looking for a paper and pencil spot play or a Software spot play.

Spot Plays are good if you are willing to wait for that right spot.

[xippy]

Dear John:

Either... I would love to find software, bur paper and pencil is fine too. I do not have a problem waiting for proper spots; I don't need a lot of action, just something that is fairly reliable.

Thank you.

[Light]

Xippy wrote:'m looking for 1 or 2 good spot-plays for horses 5-1 and up. I would be thrilled with a 10% win rate. I just do not have the time to handicap anymore...

I think this method wins 10% but I've never checked it.It also does not require handicrapping. Since your cutoff is 5-1,you would look at the M.L. and choose all horses 6-1 and up. Wait till 1 minute to post or closer if you can. Then bet the horse(s) that have gone down below their M.L. but are at least 5-1.

This method works great at times and other times sucks. But when it works well it can really pay off as I won a handicapping contest at trackchampion using this method and never saw the PP of any horse.

[Buckeye]

xippy,

I use HTR along with Microsoft Access to find spotplays. It has taken me a long time to learn how to use these programs to make money, but now I know. Not only learning the programs themselves, but learning how to design the plays also takes time.

[kenwoodallpromos]

1) No horse with tote odds lower than 2/1, play all horses 20-1 or longer.
2) Play any horse in any race who has won its last 4 and is going up in purse for at least the 2nd time in those wins or the current entered race.

[BIG RED]

Here's one still in my head it's so simple.Add the finish position to the odds in last race. Add 1 if going up, -1 if going down in class. Lowest # is bet. I give this to newbies, keeps them happy, and they hit a few.

[hurrikane]

Originally Posted by kenwoodallpromos

1) No horse with tote odds lower than 2/1, play all horses 20-1 or longer.

Not sure I understand this Ken,

I would like some spot plays too. Preferably hitting 30% and returning over 25% playing 50% of all races.

Can I get it today please. we are all on the same team right?

[GameTheory]

Originally Posted by hurrikane

Not sure I understand this Ken,

I would like some spot plays too. Preferably hitting 30% and returning over 25% playing 50% of all races.

Can I get it today please. we are all on the same team right?

Don't play with your food.

[toetoe]

Lightie,
You never told me that secret method was how you became the Track Champ-yun champ-yun. Phillips rates it at only a 4 1/2, but it's a SOLID 4 1/2. Has there ever been a liquid or gaseous rating by those clowns? Everything's solid. And what about its mutuel value? It's bound to plummet now.

[toetoe]

This one's a laugher, but it may fill the bill. Add the weight to the morning line, play the lowest #. Problem: highweights figure to win more than their share, so prices will have to be low to qualify.
Corollary angle: Play the highweight at or above a minimum (2/1?).

[First_Place]

Here's one:

PHILLIPS BMW METHOD:

A. Any race is playable if each entrant has at least one U.S. start.

B. Write down the Beyer number for the last race on the same surface as today's race (if no race on same surface, still use last race but double the subtracted points explained in rule #4).

C. To the last race Beyer number, add the furlongs worked since the last race, if any, up to a maximum of three workouts (if more than three workouts since the last race, use the last three works only).

D. Then subtract the days since the last workout, up to 20 days maximum; over 20 days since the last workout gets the maximum subtracted points of 20. But remember, if horse has no races showing on the same surface as today's race, double the subtracted points (so the absolute highest possible subtracted points would be 40).

E. Top-pointer is your final selection of course.

The way I use the above method (when I don't feel like all-out handicapping) is to utilize the top 3 or 4 ranked horses in exactas and/or trifectas, keying one horse in the top slot (and in second or sometimes third in trifectas) and the others in the second (and third in trifectas), then reversing it. For example: Horse A over horses B-C and sometimes D in exactas, then reversing it with the key horse in the second slot; and in trifectas, horse A over B-C and sometimes D over B-C-D, then place key horse in the second slot, etc. But most of you guys already know how to construct exotic wagers better than yours truly.

Needless to say, play should be restricted to tracks where workouts for each entry are regularly published, and not at race tracks where trainers work horses on a private training facility with infrequent, no works or non-recent workouts published in their respective horses' past performances.

Don't laugh, some of those Phillips Racing Newsletters quickie systems really work, especially in exotic wagering situations. At least for me it has. They're just the ticket when you're suffering handicapping fatigue.

FP

[andicap]

Bob Pandolfo is selling a paper and pencil t-bred system at sharphorses.com

His stuff is reliable and he's a very honest guy.

Here's one I use when I'm stuck at a track with nothing but a DRF

1. Take the top Beyer from each horse according to the followig rules

-- go back no more than 6 months
-- go back no more than 5 or 6 races
-- go back no more than 3 races at today's distance/surface (within 1 furlong distance. Surface is fast-fast, although you could use a "good" race on a fast track and vice versa unless the horse clearly shows a preference for some dampness in the surface.)

Take top 3 Beyer ratings. 1 point difference is a tie.

Bet the horse with the highest odds to win.
Use as key top and bottom in exactas with other logical contenders but dont' use him with favorite unless he is 6-1 or higher. At higher odds, use him heavily with chalk. Those exactas often pay higher than you think.

If you really want action, use him 3rd in tris keyed to other contenders.

Take top 5 Beyer ratings. Look at 2nd highest odds horse and use him as well in bottom of exotics and to win if odds are high enough and his rating looks competitive to rest of field.

Caveat

-- make sure horse is suited to distance/surface today.

-- Downplay high Beyers in a race where horse got a clear lead and is not likely to do so today.

-- be careful of pacelines that are further than 3 or 4 races back unless the horse is 2nd or 3rd off a layoff. They are old news. If it looks like horse has tailed off in form since then, downgrade him.

-- Be careful of aberrational Beyers. if a horse has one Beyer that is 9 or 10 points better than any of his others, be careful and make sure there is a sound reason for the improvement. A new trainer. On the turf for first time. A lighly raced younger horse who has improved big time.

-- be wary of "top" figures reached in the past 3 weeks. They
could bounce, especially if they are fillies or older geldings.

-- be wary of horses claimed recently by "super trainers." They improve almost overnight.

-- Watch out for horses who HAD been trained by "super trainers" but were claimed away. They usually regress pretty quickly.


I'm not saying you can make a living on this method, but you'll be in the game and have fun and it's pretty easy and quick.