Prohibitive Favorite

[ratpack]

I was looking for some opinions of the term prohibitive favorite and what different methods you may have to spotting one.

One that I heard was check the ML favorite and if that horse is bet down 5 or more betting levels.

I was hoping someone had some research on this factor.

Thanks in advance
RP

[Overlay]

I'm not sure I have ever run across a formal definition of a "prohibitive favorite" in a handicapping sense, or was even aware that one necessarily existed. However, out of curiosity, I did a search for the term and found that NetCapper.com contains an excerpt from Steve Fierro's The Four Quarters of Horse Investing in which it quotes him as defining a "prohibitive favorite" as one which is sent to post at 3-2 or less when no other horse in the race is lower than 5-1. I don't know whether this represents anything more than an opinion, or whether there is some mathematical basis for determining at what point a favorite becomes "prohibitive". (I have always taken the term in a generic, non-technical sense to mean that the favorite was judged as so likely to win that you either bet the favorite or pass the race.) I'd be interested in whatever light anyone else might be able to shed on this subject (if there is indeed anything "official" that can be said about it).

[JackS]

For me prohibitive begins at odds below 1-1.
When I run across a horse that doesn't appear to have ANY compitition, the ability to double my money bet seems reasonable.
In the long run, if your assumptions are logical and your success rate is above 50%, small profits are assured.
I'd prefer not to feel compelled to play a horse at these odds and often attempt to beat them but, at times I do.
My preffered bet with this type is the short priced on top in exatas with one or more of the less backed horses whith a shot at second.

[TOOZ]

Since prohibitive means too costly or expensive, I don't see how a 3-2 favorite is prohibitive, unllike a 1-5 shot would be.

[ratpack]

Originally posted by TOOZ
Since prohibitive means too costly or expensive, I don't see how a 3-2 favorite is prohibitive, unllike a 1-5 shot would be.

It is expensive if you bet on it and it lost. But seriously it is not 3/2 by itself that Fierro is talking about it is that spread of odds/money to the 2nd Fav.

Also a 1/5 shot would not be a prohibitive fav by his defination if their was another horse in the race at 1-1

[Overlay]

In thinking further about this, one other criterion which occurs to me would be a horse that is so heavily backed that none of the other horses in the race go off at odds which are equal to or lower than their "random" chance of winning the race. (For example, in an eight-horse field, every horse other than the favorite is 8-1 or higher on the board.) (Just a subjective thought. I don't know whether it would have any practical application, or whether there are any statistics about the performance of such horses.)

[GR1@HTR]

I recommend checking your records on how you do wagering on low priced favorites. Some willl show a small positve ROI, other will show a very poor ROI.