Pace handicapping

[andicap]

Here's a question. What's the most important factor do you consider in pace handicapping. (Obviously, if you're NOT a pace handicapper, this may not be relevant).

For me, it's who will get or vye for the early lead and will they keep it. In other words, I've found (and I'm really eager for GR1's opinion on this being the early speed fiend he is), that its not so much SPEED DUELS that determine what happens at the end of a race.
No, my experience is that when the early horses are weaker horses, that sets it up for those behind them. (Non-maiden races only please).
In other words, hypothetically, if you had 3 horses going early and all were 8-1 and higher in the ML, there's a good chance they would die off being weaker horses. Depending on the splits, that would either set it up for pressers or -- if the pressers were too close to a rapid pace -- closers.

BUT if you have 3 horses, and one is a 2-1 outstanding horse and the others are 12-1 longshots, there's a good chance the 2-1 will win anyway since he will put the weak horses away early.
(Yes, track bias plays a part too, I know).
We all know about lone early speed, which is really dangerous on the turf because its less likely someone else will go with an early horse on the grass.

[anotherdave]

I think the positioning of the 3 horses in the speed duel is most important. If the 2-1 shot you mention is 2 or 3 wide that might kill him or at least hurt him bad enough that he can't hold on at the end. That might set up one of the other speed horses who is hugging the rail. My favourite angle is horses who pushed wide and faded in the stretch in the last race and now have a good chance at the lead on the rail.

AD

[charleslanger]

there're also schools of thought that a horse should not be the middle one in a 3-way speed duel because he will face the most pressure(from both sides), and that a horse should not be on the rail in a multiple-horse speed duel because of lack of comfortable running room, and that while the outside horse has the worst of it regarding lost ground- he also has the best chance of possibly relaxing a bit just off the pacesetters' flanks and his jock will have the most unencumbered use of the whip...

[superfecta]

Heres one that I like.I use marginal contenders(or plain old longshots)with good late pace #s.They have no chance to win,but because the good horses will be trying to win,and getting beat up in the process,these "garbage horses"can slip into the other money slots simply because they are there.I use the Schmidt pace #s,so a FFR that is comparable to the rest of the field(but lousy early,thats why hes not a contender for the win)is what I put in the place, show and fourth hole.