Sometimes Outta Nowhere a 3 Year Old Can Put it Together - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

bisket · 10-30-2017, 04:58 PM

I started my serious handicapping for the cup today. Two things stick out in the Classic. This has been an angle I've played for the last decade when it comes to horses coming from New York in the handicap division. They're essentially an over priced miler in the Classic. I don't understand why New York doesn't have a 2 turn 1 1/4 mile race? So Gun Runner is suspect in my eyes. The other thing that concerns me is Arrogate is looking like many other runners after they make the trip to the Middle East. He hasn't shown his best yet this summer and early fall. There are few other older horses in the race that look to be ready to fill that void, but Pavel intrigues me. He looks like a 3 year old that might come from nowhere and pop at great odds. The price will have to be right.

Lemon Drop Husker · 10-30-2017, 05:02 PM

If you are right.. Pavel will certainly pop at odds of likely 30/1 or more.

bisket · 10-30-2017, 05:15 PM

He has a decent dosage profile without an abundance of chef points in DR. Romans breeding profile. So that's a mitigating factor, I like to see more chef points than that. He has a center of distribution of .28 with 1.40 dosage index. Which is ideal for 1 1/4 mile, but he only has 18 chef points. Although 13 of them fall in the intermediate category. Which is ideal for this distance.

reckless · 10-30-2017, 09:18 PM

I am a fan of Pavel as well but if any 3-year-old is capable of knocking off Gun Runner or Arrogate in the Classic, I think it is West Coast.

His running style seems to be perfect for this race and in his last 3-4 starts it looks to me that he never took a second breath.

Good luck this weekend.

sour grapes · 10-31-2017, 08:30 AM

they go 2 turns at saratoga for the whitney and woodward.Gun Runner looked pretty good in those races,like all the other contenders they train up to the classic so the jockey gold cup has been reduced to a race for the horses not good enough to run in the classic.It used to be run 2 turns but the breed has gone downhill since then and with the breeders cup has basically rendered it a useless race as a prep among the super trainers.

bisket · 10-31-2017, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sour grapes

they go 2 turns at saratoga for the whitney and woodward.Gun Runner looked pretty good in those races,like all the other contenders they train up to the classic so the jockey gold cup has been reduced to a race for the horses not good enough to run in the classic.It used to be run 2 turns but the breed has gone downhill since then and with the breeders cup has basically rendered it a useless race as a prep among the super trainers.

For the sake of the breed the horse that wins the eclipse in the older horse division has to show an aptitude at 1 1/4 mile going 2 turns. I think one of those races at Saratoga needs to be 1 1/4 mile. Pavel looked a lot like Drosselmeyer and Blame in the Gold Cup... I think it was a good race for him. You have to handicap O'neil like a good claiming trainer who doesn't show his hand. You won't find anything in the numbers and data to lead you to believe his horse is ready to run a big one. You have to pay attention to his actions and where he places his runners. He always likes his runners to travel when he's bringing them into a big race. Reddam gave him the cash to go across the country for a few races that wouldn't necessarily do anything for his breeding value. Make no mistake if Gun Runner or Arrogate bring their A game the rest are running for show. I just like the way Pavel is coming into this race, and his likely odds on Saturday might make the wagers worth while.

bisket · 10-31-2017, 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reckless

I am a fan of Pavel as well but if any 3-year-old is capable of knocking off Gun Runner or Arrogate in the Classic, I think it is West Coast.

His running style seems to be perfect for this race and in his last 3-4 starts it looks to me that he never took a second breath.

Good luck this weekend.

Thank you same to you. Baffert has 2 runners in here that he's using as pawns. Gun Runner is stretching his aptitude distance wise, and he has 4 Baffert runners that would love to float him wide on the turns. I think Gun Runner guns for the lead from the gate or his jock is going to be up against it.... So you have the top 2 runners running competitively early and good reason to doubt they can't keep it up the entire race. The race shape is looking good for a runner that just clicks off 12 or 13 and change and doesn't necessarily have a turn of foot. Just fast enough to keep good position. If Arrogate's form stays where it's been the last few races, and Gun Runner needs to work hard early, you have Collected and who? Might be a nice tri with Collected and Pavel included in the top 2 or 3 spots.

sour grapes · 10-31-2017, 10:30 AM

cant blame you for taking a shot with pavel,can you refresh my memory as i remember him
shipping to ny and running a credible 3rd,what race was that?

bisket · 10-31-2017, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sour grapes

cant blame you for taking a shot with pavel,can you refresh my memory as i remember him
shipping to ny and running a credible 3rd,what race was that?

Jockey Club... historically a similar effort as Drosselmeyer and Blame in that race.