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07-13-2017, 10:47 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 4,163
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Trip Handicapping
I'm thinking about doing an article on trip handicapping. I'd love to hear some opinions on how useful it is in your handicapping. For the people who use it, is it a main handicapping method or as a supplement? Which trips do you think are underrated? Overrated? Which sort of bad trip gets you excited about a horse's next race?
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07-14-2017, 03:05 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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One thing I think you should touch on is measuring the impact of trips.
It's one thing to find a horse that had an especially good/bad trip. It's another to try to adjust his figures or beaten lengths based on that trip to assess the performance.
I think in some extreme instances (like for example a horse that was both dueling and on the bad part of the track), you are probably better off just throwing the race out than trying to make an adjustment of some sort. But even that is not perfect because form changes.
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"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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07-14-2017, 04:11 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
One thing I think you should touch on is measuring the impact of trips.
It's one thing to find a horse that had an especially good/bad trip. It's another to try to adjust his figures or beaten lengths based on that trip to assess the performance.
I think in some extreme instances (like for example a horse that was both dueling and on the bad part of the track), you are probably better off just throwing the race out than trying to make an adjustment of some sort. But even that is not perfect because form changes.
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Don't use them at all selecting losers. Well maybe if a horse had radical bad trip I would bet against cause the horse will be a 100% underlay.
Allan
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07-14-2017, 04:52 PM
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#4
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Trip Handicapping is a major model.
Ultimately, you are seeking the same ends as with other major models; Significantly mispriced horses.
You want to be betting on horses who have shown that they can win, but are being ignored as if they can't win, due to their adverse trip(s).
You want to bet against horses who have never shown that they can win, but are being bet as if they are a top contender, due to their 'dressed-up' trip(s).
Trip handicapping info works for me like critical mass.
If the odds, horse, and public perception aren't pointing in the right direction to a sufficient degree, nothing really happens. A negative or minimal value situation. Betting into those trade-offs, is a long-term loser.
When they are pointing in the right direction to a sufficient degree, you have a big value situation. An exponential growth of value.
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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07-14-2017, 05:15 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 4,163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
Trip Handicapping is a major model.
Ultimately, you are seeking the same ends as with other major models; Significantly mispriced horses.
You want to be betting on horses who have shown that they can win, but are being ignored as if they can't win, due to their adverse trip(s).
You want to bet against horses who have never shown that they can win, but are being bet as if they are a top contender, due to their 'dressed-up' trip(s).
Trip handicapping info works for me like critical mass.
If the odds, horse, and public perception aren't pointing in the right direction to a sufficient degree, nothing really happens. A negative or minimal value situation. Betting into those trade-offs, is a long-term loser.
When they are pointing in the right direction to a sufficient degree, you have a big value situation. An exponential growth of value.
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Thanks for that perspective. Good stuff.
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07-14-2017, 05:19 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
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Instead of watching the horses and their trips...I scrutinize the jockeys, and their hand movements. Which jockey is putting forth a reasonable effort aboard his mount...and who is "taking the race off"? And I whisper these developments into a micro-recorder that I carry with me, along with any suspicious tote-board play that I might notice...trying to see if any relationship could be ascertained between this, and any particular jockey/trainer combination out there.
This game is more "dishonest" than the other money-games that are widely available to the "investing public"...and it behooves the horseplayer to try and read BETWEEN the past performance lines that we readily see. In this game, only the PARANOID survive...IMO.
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07-14-2017, 06:13 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 316
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing
I'm thinking about doing an article on trip handicapping. I'd love to hear some opinions on how useful it is in your handicapping. For the people who use it, is it a main handicapping method or as a supplement? Which trips do you think are underrated? Overrated? Which sort of bad trip gets you excited about a horse's next race?
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Please write your article on trips. It is an important part of my overall handicapping process and while it is easy for me to spot the obvious issues, traffic, gait troubles. Everyone can see those, I could use some help spotting some of the more subtle problems. Agree with Thask in that I have been lately paying a lot of attention to how the much effort the rider is exerting and where they decide to position early. Any extra info regarding trips would be helpful. Look forward to reading it.
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07-14-2017, 07:22 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 4,163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Instead of watching the horses and their trips...I scrutinize the jockeys, and their hand movements. Which jockey is putting forth a reasonable effort aboard his mount...and who is "taking the race off"? And I whisper these developments into a micro-recorder that I carry with me, along with any suspicious tote-board play that I might notice...trying to see if any relationship could be ascertained between this, and any particular jockey/trainer combination out there.
This game is more "dishonest" than the other money-games that are widely available to the "investing public"...and it behooves the horseplayer to try and read BETWEEN the past performance lines that we readily see. In this game, only the PARANOID survive...IMO.
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In the "old days" trainers allowed horses to race into condition, and I think it was a lot more obvious when the jockey wasn't making a prime effort under instructions from the trainer. I still think some trainers make this move (A C Avila did it with Masochistic's first start) and it would be useful to know which trainers still might do it.
Good point Thask.
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07-15-2017, 12:58 AM
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#9
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 9,047
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A subject very near and dear to my heart. I use no figures in my handicapping so race watching and trip handicapping is where I get my "edge." I'll elaborate further on Sunday, but I did want to introduce a horse who was on my watch list after his last that is running tomorrow at Belmont.
This is the kind of horse I look for when it comes to bet backs, which is the ultimate goal of trip handicapping IMO.
In the 6th, # Lucky Town. He broke well last time. And probably could have made the pace, but his rider yanked him back to 4th. He actually fell into a decent enough spot behind the leaders until he found himself directly behind one of the tiring pacesetters around the 3/8's pole. He shuffled from 4th to 8th in the span of a furlong and found himself in no mans land with a 1/4 mile to go. He had to wheel out into the 7 path as the eventual 1-4 finishers all got the jump on him and were in the midst of their rallies. He showed good courage to make up some lengths late, only beaten 4. Switches to the cold bug Diaz which should help the price.
This is the kind of trip I can't wait to bet back. Same class and trouble when the real running started. It left him with too much to do, but I saw enough in how he finished to think the trip cost him the race.
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07-15-2017, 10:36 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss9698
...
In the 6th, # Lucky Town. He broke well last time. And probably could have made the pace, but his rider yanked him back to 4th. He actually fell into a decent enough spot behind the leaders until he found himself directly behind one of the tiring pacesetters around the 3/8's pole. He shuffled from 4th to 8th in the span of a furlong and found himself in no mans land with a 1/4 mile to go. He had to wheel out into the 7 path as the eventual 1-4 finishers all got the jump on him and were in the midst of their rallies. He showed good courage to make up some lengths late, only beaten 4. Switches to the cold bug Diaz which should help the price.
This is the kind of trip I can't wait to bet back. Same class and trouble when the real running started. It left him with too much to do, but I saw enough in how he finished to think the trip cost him the race.
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About time the bouncer gave us some rare damn meat to chew on for a change.
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07-15-2017, 10:54 AM
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#11
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 9,047
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith
About time the bouncer gave us some rare damn meat to chew on for a change.
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Probably be washed off now
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07-15-2017, 11:21 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss9698
Probably be washed off now
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I not only like your pick, but I like it as an example of how you use trip handicapping in the context.
I hate to answer these questions for fear of being too brief or too longwinded; that's probably how to do it.
Like you (presumably to some degree), when I watch back I'm usually trying to find some horses that found themselves in the heart of the action and won the battle but lost the war. Or those that avoided all the running and fell into the mix by default in contrary. The horse that moved early down the backside to avoid getting shut off inside, then had to use horse again on the turn, then again leaving it and eventually the constant struggle for position throughout the race left little for the running.
Just a few, but those are the ones I like to look for. A horse that gets stood on his head in the turn and checks and then misses by a half and you can read all about it in the comment line in the PPs is always getting more action than it deserves. Traffic, collisions, altered courses... nah, if you are playing trips, you've got to be looking for them in midtown, not reading about them in downtown.
__________________
"You make me feel like I am fun again."
-Robert James Smith, 1989
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07-15-2017, 12:00 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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The only bad trip i consider is a E or EP horse that has a bad break or is squeezed back at the start. Otherwise most other incidents i consider just part of racing. What I like looking for is the horse that had a great trip and figure it inflated the speed figure.
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07-15-2017, 12:21 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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One that got missed.
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07-15-2017, 12:35 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 4,163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss9698
A subject very near and dear to my heart. I use no figures in my handicapping so race watching and trip handicapping is where I get my "edge." I'll elaborate further on Sunday, but I did want to introduce a horse who was on my watch list after his last that is running tomorrow at Belmont.
This is the kind of horse I look for when it comes to bet backs, which is the ultimate goal of trip handicapping IMO.
In the 6th, # Lucky Town. He broke well last time. And probably could have made the pace, but his rider yanked him back to 4th. He actually fell into a decent enough spot behind the leaders until he found himself directly behind one of the tiring pacesetters around the 3/8's pole. He shuffled from 4th to 8th in the span of a furlong and found himself in no mans land with a 1/4 mile to go. He had to wheel out into the 7 path as the eventual 1-4 finishers all got the jump on him and were in the midst of their rallies. He showed good courage to make up some lengths late, only beaten 4. Switches to the cold bug Diaz which should help the price.
This is the kind of trip I can't wait to bet back. Same class and trouble when the real running started. It left him with too much to do, but I saw enough in how he finished to think the trip cost him the race.
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The 6th at BEL is what we used to call a KICS race, short for kid in a candy store. There are a number of interesting price horses including Retrograde and Mollica. I think you could make a case if you wanted for 8 of the horses, which makes it a good betting race if you have a strong opinion.
Check out the trip Abbot got in his last race. The horse was checking and bumping right out of the gate and seemed to be fighting the jockey until he finally just gave up. He is making his second start of the year and last year looked like he might develop into a top flight turf horse.
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