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05-17-2017, 06:29 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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100 Race Test
I'm going to run a 100 race test on some ideas I've been playing around with. The samples will come from random tracks and will test the following:
Top Play- Win % / ROI (based on a $2 wager)
Value Play- In the money % / ROI (based on a $2 Wager)
Exotics- Exacta and Tri ROI (based on a $1 box wager)
Race 1:
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-17-2017, 06:34 PM
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#2
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Location: Philadelphia area
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Race 2: SCIOTO 1
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-17-2017, 06:40 PM
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#3
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Registered User
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Location: Philadelphia area
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Race 3: BUF 7
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-17-2017, 06:53 PM
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#4
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Registered User
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Location: Philadelphia area
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Race 4: SCIOTO 2
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-17-2017, 07:07 PM
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#5
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Location: Philadelphia area
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Race 5: Hoos 3
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-17-2017, 07:14 PM
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#6
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Registered User
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Location: Philadelphia area
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Race 6: Scioto 3
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-17-2017, 07:27 PM
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#7
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Location: Philadelphia area
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Race 7: Hoos 4
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-17-2017, 07:32 PM
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#8
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Registered User
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Location: Philadelphia area
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Race 8: Scioto 4
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-17-2017, 07:46 PM
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#9
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Registered User
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Location: Philadelphia area
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Race 9: NFLD 6
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-17-2017, 07:53 PM
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#10
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Registered User
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Location: Philadelphia area
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Race 10: Scioto 5
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-17-2017, 08:22 PM
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#11
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Day One Results
Results after the first 10 Races...
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-17-2017, 08:32 PM
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#12
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Location: Philadelphia area
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Day One Numbers
Top Plays- 10 Total (4 of 10 Winners- 40%)
$20 Bet - $20.40 Returned
Value Plays- 10 Total (4 of 10 in the money- 40%)
$60 Bet - $57.00 Returned
Exotics- 10 ex and 10 tris - $120 bet- $9.60 returned.
BTW...not actually betting these.
I'll try to get 10 more in tomorrow night.
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-18-2017, 11:42 AM
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#13
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Are you interested in sharing your criteria? Might be interesting to hear the opinions of others on the potential of your theory.
Years ago, "The Sports Eye" used to publish win percentages on various statistics. No ROI was included, but the stat that always produced the highest number of winners was FASTEST TIME LAST RACE.
I always got a kick out of that because "expert handicappers" always say "time only counts in jail."
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05-18-2017, 03:30 PM
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#14
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Join Date: Jan 2005
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jess Hawsen Arown
Are you interested in sharing your criteria? Might be interesting to hear the opinions of others on the potential of your theory.
Years ago, "The Sports Eye" used to publish win percentages on various statistics. No ROI was included, but the stat that always produced the highest number of winners was FASTEST TIME LAST RACE.
I always got a kick out of that because "expert handicappers" always say "time only counts in jail."
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Times must change, or the factors considered by Sports Eye back in the day were considerably less sophisticated than those used by the current crop of pool cleaners. I run single factor analyses of all harness tracks routinely. Best time last race is rarely even in the top 10 predictors, much less the top. Granted, many of those predictors are "not ordinarily available to the average bettor" but there are a number that are (some related to drivers, trainers, and ODDS in last race, rather than time).
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05-18-2017, 03:37 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,626
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Best win predictor at 5/8 tracks, pace, is a driver with a 20% or higher win rate. In trot races, it is the trainer with the 20% or higher win rate that is the best win predictor. Final times in last race are significantly lower down in both lists.
Last edited by traynor; 05-18-2017 at 03:41 PM.
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