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05-11-2017, 06:13 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Chicago
Posts: 11
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Do you favor track or distance?
If you've got one line where a horse ran (fairly recently) at the current track but not at the current race distance or race level, and another line where they ran (again reasonably recently) at the current race distance but not the same track or race level, which do you favor? Let's say they are both below the current race level to minimize variables.
Does that change if either or both are at the current race level? Both above the current race level?
I'm very inconsistent about which line I choose for my handicapping and I'd like some outside opinions.
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05-11-2017, 07:30 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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I favor turf routes.
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05-11-2017, 08:02 PM
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#3
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,272
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As long as it's the same surface I prefer a race over the track/turf
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-David Byrne
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05-11-2017, 09:00 PM
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#4
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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I prefer the race closest to day's race, regardless of what track it was at, unless it was Gulfstream.
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05-12-2017, 03:29 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Chicago
Posts: 11
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Haha I feel the same way about Keeneland.
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05-12-2017, 04:28 PM
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#6
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,632
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I always look at surface/distance before I consider track.
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05-12-2017, 04:38 PM
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#7
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Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,364
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Since choosing a running line is the very beginning of my handicapping process, with my opinion greatly modified by other factors, I'd like to think that whichever running line I choose I will in the end come to the same conclusion. So therefore I prefer the most recent one.
The most difficult situation for me is going from synthetic to dirt. I do not play any synthetic tracks so I never have to deal with dirt to synthetic.
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“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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05-13-2017, 08:56 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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Distance is the same at every track. You must travel the same number of feet to go a mile at Belmont as you do at Delta Downs. Level is not the same, a 5000 claimer at Oaklawn is much better than a 5k claimer at Sam Houston.
The racing surface at every track is different with some horses liking one more than another. Also it takes a different effort for horses to go a mile around two turns vs one. Some prefer bullrings and some the bigger tracks.
So with your question you are trying to compare apples to oranges. There are too many factors to have a simple answer.
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05-13-2017, 10:41 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 5,594
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Good thread. No easy answer.
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05-13-2017, 11:06 AM
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#10
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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But the Belmont mile is a one turn affair.
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05-13-2017, 12:04 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Belmont is a 1 turn mile but Delta isn't that a 3 turn mile? There is a lot of money made between these distinctions. I got a 10-1 at Keeneland on a horse who had all routes in his last 10 PP's but his only 2 turns were the top and 2nd top figs in the field. Hidden in plain sight!
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05-14-2017, 07:24 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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At Delta Downs all races over 5f are two turns. I look at distance, surface, and if its at the same track i consider it a bonus.
Last edited by jay68802; 05-14-2017 at 07:27 PM.
Reason: forgot last sentance
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05-15-2017, 04:14 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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I look at the horse's entire record and try to use any information I can pick up from the past to inform me about what I should prefer to look at recently.
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"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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05-15-2017, 05:16 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I look at the horse's entire record and try to use any information I can pick up from the past to inform me about what I should prefer to look at recently.
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Class we know each other. Has what I laid out above happened to you? This is part and parcel basics IMO. But it pays on occasion.
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05-15-2017, 09:34 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
Class we know each other. Has what I laid out above happened to you? This is part and parcel basics IMO. But it pays on occasion.
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To be honest, I don't think I've made many plays based on whether a race was 1 turn or 2 turns. It's probably a hole in my game. It would have really stand out for me to notice other than if the pace was a major issue or the horse was a turn back and I was trying to evaluate him off the 6F fraction.
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"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 05-15-2017 at 09:35 PM.
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