THE '300' CLUB (Bris pace figs E1+E2+LP ≥ 300 in a pre-Derby race)

[Robert Fischer]

Exclusive Members include EXAGGERATOR, CALIFORNIA CHROME, BODEMEISTER, BIG BROWN, HARD SPUN, BARBARO, SMARTY JONES, FUNNY CIDE, EMPIRE MAKER, WAR EMBLEM, POINT GIVEN, FUSAICHI PEGASUS,...

Who are this year's 300 members?



CLASSIC EMPIRE, Breeders Cup Juvenile: 102E1 115E2 95LP (312) - Most metrics have CE's BCJuv as much his best race on paper. Is it representative of his expected performance in the Derby?
His Arkansas Derby win likely stamps him as the public favorite.

GORMLEY, Sham Stakes: 108E1 112E2 89LP (309) - Dueled the Sham favorite, American Anthem into submission. Has since won the prestigious Santa Anita Derby.
Is this the next Giacomo?

HENCE, Sunland Derby: 106E1 108E2 93LP (307) - A dream pace scenario in SUNDERBY. Nonetheless, stylish and impressive.
Is this Asmussen's next Curlin? Or did he simply get a great trip on a lightning-fast track?

BATTLE OF MIDWAY, Santa Anita Derby: 114E1 122E2 71LP (307) - Set a grueling pace, in the West's biggest prep. Is he classy enough to bring his game to Kentucky?
Big effort for a horse flying under the radar.

ROYAL MO, Santa Anita Derby: 114E1 122E2 70LP (306) -Dueled Battle of Midway from post 13, and finished a half length behind. Ground-loss suggests that Royal Mo actually ran about 4 lengths faster.
Class, cruising speed, and stamina suggest potential for a Hard Spun type of horse.

IRISH WAR CRY, Wood Memorial: 119E1 106E2 80LP (305) - Legit effort, out-dueling the strong Battalion Runner from a wide draw. Sports two 100+ 'E1' races and two 100+ 'LP' races.
Like the great Barbaro, started with a stakes win at Laurel park.

MALAGACY, Gulfstream Park OC75@6.5f: 100E1 108E2 92LP (300) - Like Smarty Jones, earned his membership in an extended sprint. While a sprint at Gulfstream does little to induce Derby dreams, Malagacy has since won the Rebel Stakes and run a game effort in the Arkansas Derby.
Cheap speed, or something more?

(Preakness?) CONQUEST MO MONEY, Sunland Derby: 109E1 109E1 85LP (303) - Legit effort. Certainly a rugged horse with early pace stamina. Questions abound.
Is this an explosive curiosity like recent contender Social Inclusion, or will he put it all together and be a complete Grade 1 type?

[Robert Fischer]

Don Alberto Stable & WinStar Farm have partnered to purchase Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up Battle of Midway from Rick Porter's Fox Hill Farm, and the 3-year-old son of Smart Strike will continue to be trained by Jerry Hollendorfer as the colt prepares for a start in the May 6th Kentucky Derby (G1).

[ldiatone]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Exclusive Members include EXAGGERATOR, CALIFORNIA CHROME, BODEMEISTER, BIG BROWN, HARD SPUN, BARBARO, SMARTY JONES, FUNNY CIDE, EMPIRE MAKER, WAR EMBLEM, POINT GIVEN, FUSAICHI PEGASUS,...

Who are this year's 300 members?



CLASSIC EMPIRE, Breeders Cup Juvenile: 102E1 115E2 95LP (312) - Most metrics have CE's BCJuv as much his best race on paper. Is it representative of his expected performance in the Derby?
His Arkansas Derby win likely stamps him as the public favorite.

GORMLEY, Sham Stakes: 108E1 112E2 89LP (309) - Dueled the Sham favorite, American Anthem into submission. Has since won the prestigious Santa Anita Derby.
Is this the next Giacomo?

HENCE, Sunland Derby: 106E1 108E2 93LP (307) - A dream pace scenario in SUNDERBY. Nonetheless, stylish and impressive.
Is this Asmussen's next Curlin? Or did he simply get a great trip on a lightning-fast track?

BATTLE OF MIDWAY, Santa Anita Derby: 114E1 122E2 71LP (307) - Set a grueling pace, in the West's biggest prep. Is he classy enough to bring his game to Kentucky?
Big effort for a horse flying under the radar.

ROYAL MO, Santa Anita Derby: 114E1 122E2 70LP (306) -Dueled Battle of Midway from post 13, and finished a half length behind. Ground-loss suggests that Royal Mo actually ran about 4 lengths faster.
Class, cruising speed, and stamina suggest potential for a Hard Spun type of horse.

IRISH WAR CRY, Wood Memorial: 119E1 106E2 80LP (305) - Legit effort, out-dueling the strong Battalion Runner from a wide draw. Sports two 100+ 'E1' races and two 100+ 'LP' races.
Like the great Barbaro, started with a stakes win at Laurel park.

MALAGACY, Gulfstream Park OC75@6.5f: 100E1 108E2 92LP (300) - Like Smarty Jones, earned his membership in an extended sprint. While a sprint at Gulfstream does little to induce Derby dreams, Malagacy has since won the Rebel Stakes and run a game effort in the Arkansas Derby.
Cheap speed, or something more?

(Preakness?) CONQUEST MO MONEY, Sunland Derby: 109E1 109E1 85LP (303) - Legit effort. Certainly a rugged horse with early pace stamina. Questions abound.
Is this an explosive curiosity like recent contender Social Inclusion, or will he put it all together and be a complete Grade 1 type?

[PowerUpPaynter]

as of now with the exception of some light gormley plays on the back end of exotics. im completely tossing these SA derby horses. hope it dont bite me in the A

[letswastemoney]

My question is whether Classic Empire is going to cycle back to that Breeders' Cup effort.

I guess it doesn't matter for me. I'm going to include him in the first two legs of my backwheel, so I'm set if he fires.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

as of now with the exception of some light gormley plays on the back end of exotics. im completely tossing these SA derby horses. hope it dont bite me in the A

word is now that Malagacy will not go to the Derby.

Conquest Mo Money is out (not nominated).

Royal Mo needs a couple/few defections to get in.



All this news(in theory) helps Battle of Midway. I haven't yet bought into the idea that he's even a legitimate contender in the Derby, but if he is any good, I'm sure he'd much rather rate near the lead along only Battalion Runner, than have to also deal with those 3 beasts.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

word is now that Malagacy will not go to the Derby.

Conquest Mo Money is out (not nominated).

Royal Mo needs a couple/few defections to get in.



All this news(in theory) helps Battle of Midway. I haven't yet bought into the idea that he's even a legitimate contender in the Derby, but if he is any good, I'm sure he'd much rather rate near the lead along only Battalion Runner, than have to also deal with those 3 beasts.

Exclusive Members include EXAGGERATOR, CALIFORNIA CHROME, BODEMEISTER, BIG BROWN, HARD SPUN, BARBARO, SMARTY JONES, FUNNY CIDE, EMPIRE MAKER, WAR EMBLEM, POINT GIVEN, FUSAICHI PEGASUS
Just curious, what was TC winner American Pharoah's number?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Exclusive Members include EXAGGERATOR, CALIFORNIA CHROME, BODEMEISTER, BIG BROWN, HARD SPUN, BARBARO, SMARTY JONES, FUNNY CIDE, EMPIRE MAKER, WAR EMBLEM, POINT GIVEN, FUSAICHI PEGASUS
Just curious, what was TC winner American Pharoah's number?

295 in the Delmar Futurity

296 in the Arkansas Derby

(302 in the Preakness)

Like Always Dreaming this year, American Pharoah had easy route races (both dominant and relatively slow early) once he stretched out, and didn't really run a faster paced route until the final derby prep.

2015 PPs
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promo...ckyDerby15.pdf

[MNslappy]

Interesting! Do you keep historic records of past Derbies? I wonder how this year's 300 Club compares to previous years. In terms of what percentage of KY Derby starters are usually in the club. Seems like we have more horses fitting more angles this year than most.

[señorclipclop]

Three qualifiers last year, 9 in 2015, 4 in 2014.

[rsetup]

Originally Posted by MNslappy

Interesting! Do you keep historic records of past Derbies? I wonder how this year's 300 Club compares to previous years. In terms of what percentage of KY Derby starters are usually in the club. Seems like we have more horses fitting more angles this year than most.

Descriptive 'stats' tend to produce a larger set than predictive ones. The TC focused posters here have left no stone unturned. And we're still a couple weeks away. Keep at it.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by MNslappy

Interesting! Do you keep historic records of past Derbies? I wonder how this year's 300 Club compares to previous years. In terms of what percentage of KY Derby starters are usually in the club. Seems like we have more horses fitting more angles this year than most.

Does seem to be more 'members' this year than usual.
Conquest Mo, Malagacy, Royal Mo may not make the gate (similar luck could have effected past years).

300 club is far from a guarantee of success. Some horses like Ocho Ocho Ocho have done it as Juveniles and faded to be 50-1 in the derby... Horses like Itsmyluckyday have ran big early preps and cooled-off by the time the had run their final prep. Also a few cases of off-tracks or extreme tracks where a race may have simply been too high.

I'm not going to be basing my betting on the '300 club', but it was something that I thought was interesting. Surprised that some prices like War Emblem and Funny Cide made the cut. Really just another on the long list of fun Derby Qualifications.

Have at it
was lucky enough to find a 'historic' PP file that goes from 2000-2013 . <-- opens in a pdf with a working search function(ctrl+F keys) if looking for specific name horses.
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/14Derby.pdf
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promo...ckyDerby15.pdf
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerby16.pdf
thank you KingChas for 2017 http://interactives.courier-journal....2017/derby.pdf

[señorclipclop]

Patch can be added to the 2017 list, 301 in his maiden win.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

If I can bench 300+, do I get mention?

[Raider]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

If I can bench 300+, do I get mention?

No, you must have at least four legs, no three legged horse has ever won the derby