The bounce is coming...

[Mc990]

If you look back to last year at another Pletcher colt, Destin, one can certainly draw some similarities to Always Dreaming...

If you recall Pletcher gave him extra time into the derby after a monster new top at Tampa... I'm not sure if the initial decision was his or the owner's but regardless, both camps are known sheet users... They figured the additional rest could help mitigate the impending bounce.

Well AD has a sheet that very much resembles Destin's except he's getting less rest. Yes, they won the Florida Derby but now what...

The extra time last year for Destin was supposed to be a negative and based on that he got a little lost in the wagering... This will not be the case for AD but his circumstances and pattern are much more concerning, at least to my eye.

He's the potential favorite and most certainly a top 3 choice. For my money, Destin was an overlay last year at 21-1 off 8 weeks rest but AD is a massive underlay at 6-1 or less with 5 weeks.

[AirNate012]

His last 3 races have essentially been effortless, no real challenge. He's won by a combined 20 lengths. I'm a sheet user as well but I don't feel like the numbers tell the full story here. I feel like he's got enough left in the tank. He won't be one of my key horses based on his short price, but I'll definitely include him on my tickets.

[f2tornado]

Keep in mind you're comparing the 8.5F quirky surface Tampa Derby to the 9F Florida Derby. That extra half panel is only 6-7 seconds be can be a world of difference.

[PowerUpPaynter]

I just think we are gonna end up with a bomb this year. 4 years in a row the favorite has won. Six figure super.

[boys at tosconova]

as much as i would like to see



in the derby, i don't get the same feeling w/ destin as i do with always dreaming. destin wasn't as well meant as this horse imo.

as much as it pains me to say it, this horse reminds me more of bodemeister, (trainers aside) and he'll prolly be the KD favorite w/ a strong chance of winning.

[Davidc110]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

as much as i would like to see



in the derby, i don't get the same feeling w/ destin as i do with always dreaming. destin wasn't as well meant as this horse imo.

as much as it pains me to say it, this horse reminds me more of bodemeister, (trainers aside) and he'll prolly be the KD favorite w/ a strong chance of winning.

Vintage Steve McQueen great find.

[Andrick]

Always Dreaming's thorograph sheet does look pretty ugly and suggests a bounce. As does his trainer's record when he has one of his horses run a final prep in Florida. He's had only 9 horses run their final prep in Florida thus it's only a small sample size. But out of those 9, 3 of them ran an off race in the Derby according to thorograph with the other 6 running X races. None of the 9 ran a new top or even paired one. A few of those were well backed by the public in the wagering and went off among the top choices as well (Scat Daddy, Dunkirk, Devil May Care, Materiality).

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Andrick

Always Dreaming's thorograph sheet does look pretty ugly and suggests a bounce. As does his trainer's record when he has one of his horses run a final prep in Florida. He's had only 9 horses run their final prep in Florida thus it's only a small sample size. But out of those 9, 3 of them ran an off race in the Derby according to thorograph with the other 6 running X races. None of the 9 ran a new top or even paired one. A few of those were well backed by the public in the wagering and went off among the top choices as well (Scat Daddy, Dunkirk, Devil May Care, Materiality).

i usually tend to expect a bounce from a horse that's never shown much then won. i expect to see it less with good horses. i can't very well start questioning their next race just because they were lights out awesome in their previous race(s) imo always dreaming doesn't look like a flash in the pan.

breaking it down as simple as it gets "when you're better, you're better"

i don't know if this applies to AD but there's not many you can still say this about that will be in the race. AD is one of them.

it's still the kentucky derby, and you get a built in excuse for running it if you run poorly

[f2tornado]

I tried coming up with excuses to beat American Pharoah two years ago in spite of him meeting my two favorite angles (final fractions and RAN sire line) and making it look easy in Arkansas. I see many similarities with Always Dreaming except I'm not going to make excuses and try to beat him. It is the Derby and as such will come up with a saver play or two.

[PowerUpPaynter]

If we are looking for reasons to beat him how bout these:

1. Ran a 71 beyer last time before the Florida Derby after a jump like that a bounce back almost always happens... Like Irish War Cry after his first 100 plus beyer...

2. Until the Florida Derby the competition he faced was piss poor and the Florida Derby set up well for him as all the speed held.

3. 4 years of favs in a row, at some point you gotta bet on the law of averages.

I just think we are getting a bomb this year. At least thats the way im gonna bet it and hope to fill my pockets.


With the unpredictable way the prep season has gone why would anyone think the derby is going to be formful?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

If we are looking for reasons to beat him how bout these:

1. Ran a 71 beyer last time before the Florida Derby after a jump like that a bounce back almost always happens... Like Irish War Cry after his first 100 plus beyer...

2. Until the Florida Derby the competition he faced was piss poor and the Florida Derby set up well for him as all the speed held.

3. 4 years of favs in a row, at some point you gotta bet on the law of averages.

I just think we are getting a bomb this year. At least thats the way im gonna bet it and hope to fill my pockets.


With the unpredictable way the prep season has gone why would anyone think the derby is going to be formful?

1. MTB ran what, an 80 BSF in the Sunland then won the Derby and nearly won the Preakness. I don't play the bounce game as much with 3 year olds. Arrogate showed no bounce after he blew up Saratoga.

2. He was the speed along with Three Rules in the Florida Derby and never really slowed down throughout.

3. If you flip a quarter 50 times and have it land on heads every time then you still have a roughly 50% chance to hit heads the 51st time. I say roughly since there is a 1% bias toward the side face up at time of flip.

I'm all for bombs but need something to grasp them with. Mine That Bird had a Derby Winning jockey, the dominant sire line and a sneaky good tail female family. I didn't bet it either. Giacomo had an elite pilot and strong closing fractions in the SA Derby. I was less impressed with his breeding but there were only 5 starters that year with strong closing fractions and two made up the top and bottom of the trifecta. The place horse Closing Argument had a strong tail female Artless. I'll Have Another was 15-1 but had the credentials of a 4-1 favorite. Regardless, 15-1 is not what I consider bomber territory. The 19 hole scared me away from that one and it cost me. Won't do that again.

If I had to pick a bona fide bomber now it would be Patch. He's got the double Buckpasser-x, Blue Larkspur via tail femal line, 30 dosage points including a solid, and a fast 3/8th. No shock at all if he blows up the tote board at 40-1.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

1. MTB ran what, an 80 BSF in the Sunland then won the Derby and nearly won the Preakness. I don't play the bounce game as much with 3 year olds. Arrogate showed no bounce after he blew up Saratoga.

2. He was the speed along with Three Rules in the Florida Derby and never really slowed down throughout.

3. If you flip a quarter 50 times and have it land on heads every time then you still have a roughly 50% chance to hit heads the 51st time. I say roughly since there is a 1% bias toward the side face up at time of flip.

I'm all for bombs but need something to grasp them with. Mine That Bird had a Derby Winning jockey, the dominant sire line and a sneaky good tail female family. I didn't bet it either. Giacomo had an elite pilot and strong closing fractions in the SA Derby. I was less impressed with his breeding but there were only 5 starters that year with strong closing fractions and two made up the top and bottom of the trifecta. The place horse Closing Argument had a strong tail female Artless. I'll Have Another was 15-1 but had the credentials of a 4-1 favorite. Regardless, 15-1 is not what I consider bomber territory. The 19 hole scared me away from that one and it cost me. Won't do that again.

If I had to pick a bona fide bomber now it would be Patch. He's got the double Buckpasser-x, Blue Larkspur via tail femal line, 30 dosage points including a solid, and a fast 3/8th. No shock at all if he blows up the tote board at 40-1.

Totally agree with you on Patch, wonder how the whole one eye thing effects his ability to navigate in a 20 horse field.

[PowerUpPaynter]

ya know looking at this horse he won the Florida Derby where all the speed held in the race, 4 of the top 5 horses were all horses in the front. Looking at his other 2 route races he got to sit on a soft pace. He might be very beatable.

[f2tornado]

His preceding allowance race was real soft but he came home extremely fast. I was skeptical of American Pharoah after running some soft factions in the Rebel in spite of tearing it up down the lane. Not making that mistake again. A good pilot is only going to use as much horsepower as necessary. The FL Derby had a much stronger pace and he kept going. He's the logical favorite at this time. He fits my top three Derby angles: RAN sire line, fast final fractions in major 9F prep, and a big league pilot. I certainly will have coverage on a couple others but this one is my top selection unless he is not taking to the track in workouts.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by AirNate012

His last 3 races have essentially been effortless, no real challenge. He's won by a combined 20 lengths. I'm a sheet user as well but I don't feel like the numbers tell the full story here. I feel like he's got enough left in the tank. He won't be one of my key horses based on his short price, but I'll definitely include him on my tickets.

You deserve some credit for going against the grain. Some comments/excuses you may hear:

1) Always Dreaming bounced but still won.

2) I still wouldn't bet him at those odds. Terrible bet.

3) Why do you buy sheets?

4) Rode a gold rail.



Truth is I bet against AD in multi's. Needed the runner ups.