sunland derby

[boys at tosconova]

discuss

[PowerUpPaynter]

Bronze Age... 'nuff said

[MonmouthParkJoe]

Sunland is about 4.5 hours from here and debated going with a big group that made the trek yesterday for this. I saw the entries and decided against it. Next trip for me is the SA derby that I can drive to, or Keeneland if i can find a cheap enough flight.

[Inner Dirt]

I rarely bet Sunland Park, but I was stunned when I looked up an article about the Sunland Park Derby that said it had a purse of $800,000. Like I said I know little about the track but if ventured to guess at the purse I figured it would be a low end derby in the $150,000 range.

[duncan04]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

I rarely bet Sunland Park, but I was stunned when I looked up an article about the Sunland Park Derby that said it had a purse of $800,000. Like I said I know little about the track but if ventured to guess at the purse I figured it would be a low end derby in the $150,000 range.

Slot money since it is a racetrack and casino

[f2tornado]

Unfortunately no dime supers in this one. The Baffert looks like the one to beat but I'm not convinced he can lead all the way around. It's otherwise wide open. Sometimes taking a breeding angle works better at these 9F races. The Spriral winner was a female family 1 and had one of Stanley's conduit mares in tail female so perhaps not a shocker in spite of 25-1.

Shareholder Value - Has War Admiral-x in tail female line and one of the best pilots in the country.
Hedge Fund - RAN sire line. Atoviscar in tail female. Very capable Ortiz up.
Bronze Age - Always respect Baffert but can his front running style get it done at 9F? Best BSF and Brisnet figure last out. Has Buckpasser-x and a solid dosage point. All sorts of interesting inbreeding.
Irap - Decent place to Royal Mo in the Robert B. Placed again to the local 12 last out. Has Buckpasser-x in tail female but yet to pop a fast stretch run. Could certainly hold. Blinkers back on adds another angle.
Hence - Asmussen sometimes pops a price and this one has Mr.P via RAN/Gold Digger on both sides. Buckpasser-x through dam sire.
Total Tap - Another Asmussen trained RAN colt with Buckpasser-x and some cute inbreeding. Geroux no slouch.
Conquest Mo Money - 3 for 3 at the track with a double shot of Buckpasser-x only 4 deep. Also Mahmoud in tail female line.

Too many to use in $1 minimum verticals for my wallet. Maybe play the P3.

[boys at tosconova]

i have a couple of questions.

why would castellano opt for the 1 over the 2?


and

how did the 12 horse only sell for 8500 as a 2yr old when he was close to a 200k yearling? did he have legs that looked like loose wagon wheels?...and regarding him, why would you not nominate to the TC for 6k last week?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i have a couple of questions.

why would castellano opt for the 1 over the 2?


and

how did the 12 horse only sell for 8500 as a 2yr old when he was close to a 200k yearling? did he have legs that looked like loose wagon wheels?...and regarding him, why would you not nominate to the TC for 6k last week?

Per 1: Ignoring upside potential, do you go with the horse that ran in two graded stakes or the one that just broke maiden?

Per 2: Agree. Why not take a $6k flier after winning the Mine That Bird. Same logic for the Spriral winner. If the trainer thought the horse was legit then $6k is a lot cheaper than $200k.

[Run Nicholas Run]

the fluke of mine that pos, has caused this minor league track
to have some attention, no ky derby winner in here, the one time
has come and gone.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Per 1: Ignoring upside potential, do you go with the horse that ran in two graded stakes or the one that just broke maiden?

i don;t know about you, but the 1 horse doesn't appear to be the kind of horse you would jump off 2 for.

there has to be some kind of back story to this move

[boys at tosconova]

those OP maiden grad horses looked like chit in the SW. second place finisher petrov beat them by almost 10L. because of this why would oxford lane be any different than the 6 and 9.

and if castellano honestly thinks the 1 is better than the 2, this further clouds the picture, as the 1 doesn't look like anything special at all

[Robert Fischer]

Looks a little chalky, but there are decent horses.
Hedge Fund should bury these. Will we get over 5/2?

Baffert's horse, Bronze Age has a puncher's chance.
O'Neil has a long shot chance in Irap.= A likely 'underneath key', who needs to stop hanging in the stretch, in order to get a win.
Local Conquest MO is a trap, but should run a solid race. Seems to need the 3 BIGS to sputter.

[boys at tosconova]

only 2 possible longshots i see outside the figs are the 10 and 11.

if the 10 could get the distance he could get a piece. and if the 11 is classy enough, he could be there as well. distance is in his wheelhouse

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Unfortunately no dime supers in this one. The Baffert looks like the one to beat but I'm not convinced he can lead all the way around. It's otherwise wide open. Sometimes taking a breeding angle works better at these 9F races. The Spriral winner was a female family 1 and had one of Stanley's conduit mares in tail female so perhaps not a shocker in spite of 25-1.

Shareholder Value - Has War Admiral-x in tail female line and one of the best pilots in the country.
Hedge Fund - RAN sire line. Atoviscar in tail female. Very capable Ortiz up.
Bronze Age - Always respect Baffert but can his front running style get it done at 9F? Best BSF and Brisnet figure last out. Has Buckpasser-x and a solid dosage point. All sorts of interesting inbreeding.
Irap - Decent place to Royal Mo in the Robert B. Placed again to the local 12 last out. Has Buckpasser-x in tail female but yet to pop a fast stretch run. Could certainly hold. Blinkers back on adds another angle.
Hence - Asmussen sometimes pops a price and this one has Mr.P via RAN/Gold Digger on both sides. Buckpasser-x through dam sire.
Total Tap - Another Asmussen trained RAN colt with Buckpasser-x and some cute inbreeding. Geroux no slouch.
Conquest Mo Money - 3 for 3 at the track with a double shot of Buckpasser-x only 4 deep. Also Mahmoud in tail female line.

Too many to use in $1 minimum verticals for my wallet. Maybe play the P3.

Hence looked good.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Hence looked good.

Yes he did. Those final fractions should come out pretty hot. I don't know about that rider, what the speed figs will look like, or how much he beat... but in the mess that is this year, I wouldn't totally punt this one.