Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 03-16-2017, 12:44 PM   #1
theBozyn
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 31
Rep Power: 0 theBozyn is on a distinguished road
Changing leads

I need some info on when a horse changes lead. What I want to know is if they do it on their own or does the jockey make it happen?
theBozyn is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-16-2017, 01:11 PM   #2
Racetrack Playa
regular user
 
Racetrack Playa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 25,789
Rep Power: 30 Racetrack Playa is on a distinguished road
(a google) =some videos and a little write up

https://www.westpointtb.com/news-and...nges-explained
__________________
Don't Believe The HYPE...
Racetrack Playa is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-16-2017, 04:10 PM   #3
ultracapper
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,634
Rep Power: 7 ultracapper is on a distinguished road
Excellent link Playa. I've always known the jockey can signal to the horse to change leads, but the author infers that the horse can be trained to change on its own.
__________________
"Do no unnecessary harm to your bankroll"
-A Horseplayer's Hippocratic Oath

"Science is the father of knowledge. Opinion breeds ignorance"
-Hippocrates

"Successful horse race handicapping is nothing more than the collection, and proper assessment of, PERTINENT FACTS"
-A Successful Horse Race Handicapper

Last edited by ultracapper; 03-16-2017 at 04:12 PM.
ultracapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-17-2017, 09:30 PM   #4
mountainman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 3,102
Rep Power: 18 mountainman is on a distinguished road
it often relates to infirmity. even worse is when a horse switches back and forth in the stretch. ouch,
mountainman is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-20-2017, 04:24 PM   #5
EasyGoer89
Charm school graduate
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 1,902
Rep Power: 0 EasyGoer89 is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman View Post
it often relates to infirmity. even worse is when a horse switches back and forth in the stretch. ouch,
I've noticed sharp, game and otherwise good horses do this in the stretch of turf races, esp. At gulf, could be the hard surface stinging their feet so they keep switching. I see it more on turf than on dirt.
EasyGoer89 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-20-2017, 04:33 PM   #6
098poi
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 4,359
Rep Power: 16 098poi is on a distinguished road
Very good link, thanks. I was never clear on the order of the feet. I will watch more closely from now on.
098poi is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-20-2017, 04:48 PM   #7
Murph
Public Handicapper
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Indiana
Posts: 1,450
Rep Power: 0 Murph is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman View Post
it often relates to infirmity. even worse is when a horse switches back and forth in the stretch. ouch,
Have you seen Sparkle Slew run yet, Mark?


In this race she appears obstinate to me. Possibly she is hurting? I can't tell here and have not followed her back from this race. I'm interested in your opinion, then I will go look up her more recent history. My note says "may move up easily when she learns to switch leads".
Murph is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-20-2017, 08:08 PM   #8
EMD4ME
NoPoints4ME
 
EMD4ME's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
Rep Power: 0 EMD4ME is on a distinguished road
To me, it is vital to take notes on exactly how and when every horse changes leads in the entire race (not just the stretch).
EMD4ME is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-21-2017, 06:17 AM   #9
Murph
Public Handicapper
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Indiana
Posts: 1,450
Rep Power: 0 Murph is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by EMD4ME View Post
To me, it is vital to take notes on exactly how and when every horse changes leads in the entire race (not just the stretch).
Watch that race video and tell me what you think. I don't see a problem until the turn home.

When I read mountainman's comment it made me think of this one. She seemed more interested in something on the grandstand side. I stopped following after this performance in October. I'm going to look her up this morning to see what the next couple outings look like and report back.
Murph is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-21-2017, 07:21 AM   #10
Murph
Public Handicapper
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Indiana
Posts: 1,450
Rep Power: 0 Murph is on a distinguished road
The posted video is from Dec 14, 2016 NOT October like I said before. Here is the chart.
http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...16&cy=USA&rn=9

Laid off after this race until Feb 2 and comes back for two in 15 days always at 5K claim. Feb 2 4th place, 5 path 3/16 faded late. Feb 17 2nd place, 2 lgth lead at stretch call, lost by 1 3/4
http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...17&cy=USA&rn=9

http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...17&cy=USA&rn=3

I'm looking for this one to ship into my backyard in a few weeks. I don't want to miss on a class jumper who looks much the best and may win big when prompted properly. I will review video when I fire up the ADW in a couple of hours.

Anyone following please add your comments. Help ole' Murph fill out his condition book for the upcoming Indiana Grand meeting. (I need to crush it early)
Murph is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-21-2017, 12:16 PM   #11
Ruffian1
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 661
Rep Power: 5 Ruffian1 will become famous soon enoughRuffian1 will become famous soon enough
BTW If you have time, would you look at that Sparkle Slew race posted in the Changing Leads thread? (JK*.5)

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...29&postcount=7 I see the horse switch to her right ( correct )lead at 1:18 which was very late. And as you can see, that is exactly when the horse starts to draw away. I try and liken it to a boxer only using one arm to throw punches. That arm gets pretty tired if it's the only one doing the work. Using both provides more stamina as well as balance and lessens muscle fatigue in one certain area. Nothing worse than playing a speed horse that is still clear at the 1/8th pole but on the wrong lead. You just know it probably will not end as well as it should. Sometimes they hang on, but more times than not, the get nailed.
Horses that run counter clockwise like the U.S. does are taught to run down straightaways on their right lead and around turns on their left lead. This is one of the first things they learn months before coming to the track.
It is true that sometimes the older horse won't switch because it might be a comfort, or lack of comfort thing going on. That is seen more in cheaper racing venues with older horses usually but not always. Switching back and forth can be a comfort thing as well. Or, on turf, mud or slop, or a cuppy sandy track, basically a surface they are struggling with, it can be that they are not comfortable with the footing and don't trust it. So they switch to find more solid footing. It really depends on too many things to say it's only one or two things.

When you see a maiden not switching, it can be that the horse is or has developed a bad habit. That habit is VERY hard to break. Some cheap speeds get so mentally stressed out that when pressured, they can't seem to remember to switch. But if that same horse has a comfortable lead as it turns for home, they might very well switch on that occasion.
Some still just will not switch period. And while that cheapens all horses because they can never reach their potential , they are not always cheaper horses.
Lite The Fuse hated to switch leads. Rarely if ever did. He was a hell of a horse even without doing so . Think how good he would have been had he switched turning for home. His offspring rarely did either which IMO is why he threw mostly cheap one dimensional speed horses.
Knowing a track that you play well and knowing the horses that do not switch can really make throwing speed out much easier. If it looks like a duel they will most probably fail. But if they are a type that WILL switch if left alone turning for home, and the pace suggests the horse will be clear at that spot, you can decide if it is worth the gamble to play the horse in hope of the horse switching.
It's homework yes. But it is knowledge that most you are playing against do not have. Therefore, too me, it's worth it both to use the horse and to not use the horse depending on the situation.

Lastly, jocks trying to MAKE a horse switch can work but honestly, it does not work all that often even if the rider is successful. If it's discomfort, they just made it worse. If it's stubborn, the horse probably does not appreciate it. I get why they try, but in my experience, you really need the horse to want to do it to have your best shot at success. Now if they just need a subtle reminder, a very slight weight shift or a light tap on the other shoulder with the stick turned down can do the trick. But again, life is good when they just do it themselves and it's never easy when they don't for whatever reason.
Hope that helps.




Ruffian1 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-21-2017, 07:51 PM   #12
EMD4ME
NoPoints4ME
 
EMD4ME's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
Rep Power: 0 EMD4ME is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by Murph View Post
Watch that race video and tell me what you think. I don't see a problem until the turn home.

When I read mountainman's comment it made me think of this one. She seemed more interested in something on the grandstand side. I stopped following after this performance in October. I'm going to look her up this morning to see what the next couple outings look like and report back.
1) I don't follow Turfway at all or that horse so please allow me to pick a NYRA horse and discuss changing leads...

2) Da Wildcat Girl.... On Jan 29th she was bet OFF the board. She was beaten by a Perfect Trip better horse BUT went back to the wrong lead late and flattened out at the wire. In her race prior, she won and changed leads well (and to the wire). That made her, to me an absolute throwout in her next start (from the win spot). She went off at 2/1 and was 1 of 2 closers in a speed packed race. She had the race won but when she did, she went back to the wrong lead and blew the race.

It's important to know how/and if a horse changes leads in races. If the horse normally does but today didn't, I am super concerned next time out.

If a horse always doesn't change leads, then the PPs you see are what you see.

Hope that helps. If you want to see the replays, they are :

Dec 4th 8th race, PP 8 of 9 (win)
Jan 29th 5th race, the rail of 6 (hang job with change to incorrect lead late)
Feb 17th 6th race, PP 2 of 6, (back to incorrect lead and spits it out).

Once again, if a horse changes leads well but then goes back to the wrong lead (if they don't normally do that) shows me that they can't complete the stretch run on that lead.

Problem....
EMD4ME is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-21-2017, 08:05 PM   #13
VigorsTheGrey
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 3,569
Rep Power: 5 VigorsTheGrey will become famous soon enough
How is the change of leads accomplished...? Does the horse have both front legs in the air at one time during which the flip is made...? Or is there some subtle shuffle that takes place...is a right lead defined by the right hoof being in front when it touches the ground...? Do the rear legs ever change "leads"...

Last edited by VigorsTheGrey; 03-21-2017 at 08:06 PM.
VigorsTheGrey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-21-2017, 08:22 PM   #14
whodoyoulike
Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
Rep Power: 0 whodoyoulike is on a distinguished road
Changing leads has always been difficult for me also. Maybe, it's because I've always been focusing on other things during a race. It sounds like it helps with a horse's balance during the race.

When curious about something .... resort to Google, maybe this short article will help.

Quote:
... Why is lead switching critical ? A horse will get very tired if it remains on one lead for too long. It is also important for a rider to note if a horse is switching normally, a little late or a little early or too often. A change in behavior regarding lead switching is a signal that something is not well with the horse. ...

https://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/20...ng-leads/?_r=0
whodoyoulike is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-21-2017, 08:28 PM   #15
EMD4ME
NoPoints4ME
 
EMD4ME's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
Rep Power: 0 EMD4ME is on a distinguished road
I dare any of you to stand up. Start hopping on one leg. You will need to change over to the other leg to keep the best action going. Same with horses.

On the turn, if a horse runs on the incorrect lead, it will hurt their ability to stay closer to the rail...

Picture making a sharp left while driving but your tires are pointing outward. Less force and distribution but you're going outward.

I even check for what lead horses are on , on the backstretch and in turf chutes.

More parts of the puzzle you uncover the better.
EMD4ME is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply

Tags
changing leads




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Which book(s) would you recommend to a Newbie" Up to 3
Picking Winners: A Horseplayer's Guide by Andrew Beyer 1994 - 22.22%
22 Votes
Betting on Horse Racing For Dummies by Richard Eng - 6.06%
6 Votes
The Winning Horseplayer by Andrew Beyer 2007 - 8.08%
8 Votes
Betting Thoroughbreds by Steven Davidovitz and Andrew Beyer 1997 - 15.15%
15 Votes
Exotic Betting by Steven Crist 2006 - 13.13%
13 Votes
Bet With the Best by Andrew Beyer and Steve Davidowitz 2001 - 4.04%
4 Votes
Getting the Best of It by David Sklansky 1997 - 2.02%
2 Votes
How to WIN the PICK 6 by Steven Kolb 2009 - 1.01%
1 Vote
Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century by Steve Davidowitz and Steven Crist 2009 - 9.09%
9 Votes
Finding The Hidden Horse: Tips, tricks, angles and secrets by William Davidson 2017 - 2.02%
2 Votes
The Blood-Horse Authoritative Guide to Betting Thorougbreds by the Blood-Horse staff 2005 - 1.01%
1 Vote
Profitable Horse Race Betting Using Stock Market Techniques by Aaron Ainslie and Woodbine Mike 2015 - 0%
0 Votes
Secrets of Professional Turf Betting by Robert L Bacon 1952 - 1.01%
1 Vote
Commonsense Betting by Dick Mitchell 1995 - 7.07%
7 Votes
Overlay, Overlay by Bill Heller 2004 - 0%
0 Votes
Thoroughbred Cycles by Mark Cramer 1990 - 15.15%
15 Votes
Handicapping 101 by Brad Free 2004 - 14.14%
14 Votes
Complete Idiot's Guide to Betting on Horses by Sharon B. Smith 1998 - 0%
0 Votes
Beyer on Speed by Andrew Beyer 2012 - 12.12%
12 Votes
Trifecta: The Business of Betting Thoroughbreds by Bobby Zen 2012 - 0%
0 Votes
Finding an Edge: A 21st century book by Ron Loftus 2014 - 1.01%
1 Vote
Winning without Thinking by Nick Mordin 2002 - 3.03%
3 Votes
Six Secrets of Successful Bettors by Frank R. Scatoni and Peter Thomas Fornatale 2005 - 10.10%
10 Votes
Money Secrets At The Racetrack Paperback by Barry Meadow 2000 - 17.17%
17 Votes
Smarter Bets - The Exacta Way by Keith Hoffman 2013 - 0%
0 Votes
Betting Maidens and 2-Year-Olds by Dan Illman 2005 - 1.01%
1 Vote
Winning Horseracing Handicapping by Chuck Badone 1999 - 1.01%
1 Vote
The Power of Early Speed by Steve Klein 2005 - 4.04%
4 Votes
Modern Pace Handicapping by Tom Brohamer 2000 - 25.25%
25 Votes
None, just go to the track. - 4.04%
4 Votes
None, all are outdated - 8.08%
8 Votes
Other (please specify) - 20.20%
20 Votes
Total Votes: 99
Non-members may not vote on this poll.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:56 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2017 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.