The Kentucky Derby trail is starting to heat up, especially after the loss of Mastery
, and some other favorites falling hard in other preps.
Oaklawn gets into high gear this weekend in their major prep for the Arkansas Derby with the 8.5 panel Rebel. And this looks to be a pretty good edition of this race. Enough said, who do we got?
Silver Bullion: He has won here, but the company hasn't been all that inspiring. DWL hasn't had a serious contender in a while, and this one looks like a longshot in the Rebel.
Uncontested: First question is will he get the lead. Second question is, if he doesn't, can he hit the board? A couple of bullet works are expected for him. Simply put, he looks like a 1 turn sprinter and would need to make a major shift in tendencies to beat this field, much less hit the board.
Sonneteer: Well...., he is a Maiden. Then again, he has at least hit the board 5 of 8 times. And therein lies the problem. A 3YO with races under his belt, including 3 weeks ago, just doesn't offer up much hope of the massive improvement needed to win a race like this.
Petrov: Hit the Exacta in all 4 career starts in pretty good fields. He was right there and able to win last out, but was much the 2nd best. Improving colt that still needs to get better IMO.
Untrapped: Has ran in some really good races. Another that has hit the board in all of 'em. May have some upside left and Asmussen is a legend at Oaklawn. I'm a sucker for Trappe Shot's, but this one has had trouble before and may be due for a good trip. Interesting and can't be dismissed from the top spot.
Malagacy: 7 lengths and 15 lengths. Hard to look past a 2 for 2 horse with those kinds of victories. Sure, the last was a 6 horse field, but it was solid. Distance is obviously the question here for anybody and everybody. Then again after pulling away at 6.5Fs, he only has to go 1 more, right? Obvious speed influence to a field loaded with speed.
American Anthem: Shipped here after getting beat by
Gormley who didn't show an ounce of anything last weekend against
Mastery. Just another speed horse in a race full of speed? Smith/Baffert gonna be way overlaid. Bullets galore, he either wires, or is a pure bust. You wanna take 9/5?
Silver Dust: Getting better.
Lanerie. Must include on exotics in this speedfest. Has always found some kind of trouble. Sneaky one that could be a solid underlay at monster odds.
Appalachian Gem: 2 HOF's hook up with
Gary Stevens and
Jack Van Berg. Hard not to root for this one. In the end, he is overmatched. He should keep coming though, and could fill out a Tri or Super.
Royal Mo: This may be Uncle Mo's best underling this year. And yet again, we have a front-runner from the 10 hole at Oaklawn filled with other speed. Good luck. IMO, you'll have to believe in a change of tactics from the connections to take back and work out a trip. Otherwise, a sure fire overlay pass.
Lookin At Lee: Only colt in here who ran in the BC Juvenile has done little in his 4 Graded Stakes races to date. On a good note, he should be getting a hot pace in front of him opening up a chance for his late run. Asmussen is solid at Oaklawn, and Santana is a very solid unknown off of the national radar. Does he put it all together in his 2nd race as a 3YO with 7 races already under his belt? Out of the 11 hole? Not likely.
Summary: Fully expect a crazy race. Looking at
Untrapped right now, and looking to get 4/1 to 5/1. Exotics may well be the way to play this one as slot machine numbers could fill out any of the top 3.
