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Old 02-10-2017, 09:48 AM   #1
sbcaris
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buckpasser in the X angle

Interesting data: 8 of the 12 horses listed in Haskin's Derby Dozen have Buckpasser in the X position: Irish War Cry, McCracken, Mastery, Gunnervera, Classic Empire, No Dozing, American Anthem, and El Areeb.

As the years pass the above pattern has become more frequent among the best runners.

Buckpasser, like his maternal grandsire, War Admiral, is becoming a sought after influence in modern pedigrees.
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Old 02-16-2017, 08:20 AM   #2
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Wair just so i understand this again: The X passing position is either Buckpasser thru a full female line like mastery or thru buckpasser to female to male to female... so that there is not 2 males in a row like classic empire and irish war cry? and if im correct its becuase if it was to go thru 2 males in a row it would be deluted so to say? As in the male passes 100% of the chromosome to a female but only 50% to a male and the female always passes 100%?
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Old 02-16-2017, 08:44 AM   #3
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PowerupPaynter: Classic Empire, like any male horse, can only get his X chromosome from his dam.

Classic Empire only has one road to Buckpasser's X and that is by way of his second damsire, Miswaki. Miswaki got part of Buckpassers X from his dam, Hopespringseternal who is Buckpassers daughter.

Miswaki passes on part of Buckpassers X to his daughter, In her Glory who in turn transmits part of that X to her daughter, Sambuca Classica who in turn passes part of that X to Classic Empire.
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Old 02-16-2017, 01:00 PM   #4
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http://www.pedigreequery.com/uncontested3

Uncontested has Buckpasser on the dam's side, just wondering would it have to be reversed to qualify?
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Old 02-16-2017, 06:26 PM   #5
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Big49010: Uncontested does not get an X with a line to Buckpasser because a sire always sends his Y chromosome to a son. In this pedigree Buckpasser transmits a Y chromosome to his son, Norcliffe, who in turn transmits this Y chromosome to his son, At The Threshold, who in turn transmits this Y chromosome to his son, Lil E Tee. Lil E Tee transmits his X to his daughter, Galileo star.

Therefore, Uncontested does NOT have Buckpasser in the X passing position.
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Old 02-16-2017, 08:30 PM   #6
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a male horse would pass his X to a daughter tho correct? then that daughter could pass the X to a male or female. So essentially between Buckpasser and the end horse as long as there is not 2 males in a row in the buckpasser line the x is transferred?

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Old 02-16-2017, 09:27 PM   #7
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Thank you for the explanation.

I know many old timer's look for 3 crosses of Buckpasser on a page, when looking at stallion prospects to breed to, but I'm not sure if they look at X and Y, but I will be asking when I speak to one of them again.
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Old 02-16-2017, 10:09 PM   #8
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If i understand this correctly the following derby winners of the 2000s have buckpasser in the X

Nyquist
California Chrome (twice)
Super Saver (twice)
Funny Cide



and if im correct with my interpretation of the X passing postion I wonder how many derby starters meet that criteria
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Old 02-17-2017, 01:31 PM   #9
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You missed Derby winner Orb in 2013. He also has Buckpasser in the X by way of his broodmare sire, Unbridled.

The percentage of starters with Buckpasser in the X is around 35-40%. By itself, Buckpasser in the X is not a good angle but if you add a fast final 3/8 in a 9 furlong prep race it becomes a very lucrative statistic.
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Old 02-17-2017, 01:43 PM   #10
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have you come across years where no derby starter has buckpasser in the X and the final fraction rule?
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Old 02-17-2017, 11:42 PM   #11
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PowerupPaynter: Yes, there were no qualifiers on my Buckpasser angle plus final fraction time in the following years for the Ky Derby:

2015, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2001, 2002, 1997, 1994, 1992,and 1991.

There were qualifiers in 20 of the years from 1988 to 2016. 7 of those 20 years a qualifier won the roses and 8 qualifiers finished second, one qualifier finished third. A fantastic number of in the money finishers ---16 of the 30 qualifiers hit the board. 53% of those that qualified finished in the money.
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Old 02-18-2017, 08:06 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sbcaris
PowerupPaynter: Yes, there were no qualifiers on my Buckpasser angle plus final fraction time in the following years for the Ky Derby:

2015, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2001, 2002, 1997, 1994, 1992,and 1991.

There were qualifiers in 20 of the years from 1988 to 2016. 7 of those 20 years a qualifier won the roses and 8 qualifiers finished second, one qualifier finished third. A fantastic number of in the money finishers ---16 of the 30 qualifiers hit the board. 53% of those that qualified finished in the money.
wow thats pretty amazing. Wonder how more people have not picked this angle up. Iv been following the Triple Crown since 2003 and you are the only guy that I learned this from. - on a side note do you think Buckpasser is as successful as he is because he carries the X from War Admiral AND Blue Larkspur. It would be interesting to see what the performance of other horses are in the derby that carry 2 of the 4 large heart families in the X.
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Old 02-18-2017, 08:22 AM   #13
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and to follow up on my last post - Although American Pharoah did not have Buckpasser in the X he did have Blue Larkspur and War Admiral in the X. Blue Larksput via Heliolight and War Admiral via Grenfall
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Old 02-18-2017, 09:29 AM   #14
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sorry about the repeated post, but now that i understand this X thing, I just went back and went thru the derby winners of the 2000's to see which of the four 'large heart genes' they trace back to and found that Big Brown and Giacomo are the only 2 that dont trace to any. Can anyone fact check me on that. Im pretty sure I dug pretty deep.

I added that info to my spreadsheet if you drag all the way to the right:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...yzs/edit#gid=0
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Old 02-18-2017, 12:06 PM   #15
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PowerupPaynter: You were correct about Giacomo but regarding Big Brown you were incorrect. Big Brown has both War Admiral and Blue Larkspur in the X passing position. WA by way of Lear Fan and Blue Larkspur by way of Damascus.

Regarding the use of the above 4 as a handicapping factor for the Ky Derby----In my opinion the above stallions in the X passing position by themeselves have little or no impact because the majority of horses in the Derby trace to one or more of them in the X. Around 85% of the Ky Derby entrants have an X by way of at least one of the above 4 stallions and 85% of the winners also carry an X from at least one of the above 4 stallions. The impact value is 1.00 which means the stat carries no clout at all(85% starters divided by 85% winners). These types are not winning more than their expected share of Derbies.

Similarly, my Buckpasser factor is NO good if used by itself. Many horses with Buckpasser in the X can't win a race no less a stake race. Adding the FAST FINAL FURLONG in a 9 furlong major prep improves this factor tremendously in all three legs of the Triple Crown..

Here is a very interesting point concerning the above: Did you know that one of the greatest broodmare sires of all time, Buckpasser, got approximately 10% stakes winners from his daughters foals. That means that 90% of all horses that were produced by Buckpasser's daughters never won a stake race.
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