Saratoga Showdown

[charleslanger]

Going by the size of the current pool, first prize is a minimum 10K (paying down to 10th place), and should wind up between double to triple that: http://showdown.nyra.com/saratoga/


Enter as often as you wish for $10 each entry.....

I highly encourage every single one of youze to take a shot--

[charleslanger]

FYI those who invest in lots of entries don't intimidate me at all....in fact, the more they invest, the merrier......

I believe they basically play against themselves: there are some days(apart from those when the dilemma is having several solid choices to choose from) when all/almost all entries should ride on one solid(or worse, a not-so-good) choice(there will come those days, when ubelievably, the whole card will not inspire confidence in any one choice)... But having all that money invested pretty much forces them to spread out into lesser-quality choices(unlikely & worst-case scenarios like possible breakdowns & gate bumps, etc. now cloud judgment).... one day or even a few one may maybe get away with this, but otherwise, such a method will not help one much, if any.

So please sign up yourself, friends, relatives (you can actually buy others entries as presents with your credit(or debit with logo) card-- by creating a handle / pw for them, or have them log in and then you submit the purchase... They'd make excellent birthday, wedding, shower, belated grad presents...
.

[charleslanger]

Is on pace to hit 20K in entry money by close of day tomorrow-- never will it have previously been at such a high with so much sign-up time remaining.... I can envision 50K in entry money, meaning 30 for the winner-- lower spots would get more than the winner of the Eliminators we're currently slaving over for pratically peanuts right now....... all for a measly $10.........

[charleslanger]

I believe previous contest pool was in the 30's / first place prize @ 20... But never was the pool this high so early--and it usually more than doubles during the last weekend & the frantic beginning of week before-- let's boogie!

[charleslanger]

Ist place prize money's currently @ 14K--

FYI Last year's edition paid 26.7K for win, 6.7K second, 3.6K third... and so on to tenth.

All for just a measly $10........

Catch the fever!

[charleslanger]

Last chance-- 10am (E) Wed entries close--

All aboard & go baby, go.......

[Light]

I just checked out the site. It has 28k in the pool. It's like the other eliminator contests. They pay you 1% of the pool if you finish either 8th 9th or 10th. That would be $280.

Now do the math

It's a 36 day meet. If you are alive after 36 days with 1 horse a day to show,you would be far more ahead if you took that $10 entry fee and did a show parlay that hit 36 days in a row starting with $10.00

In fact you would probably get more for your investment than the winner.

In fact you could possibly retire.

[charleslanger]

I disagree on all counts:

Firstly, with the pool over 30K now, if i'm wrong about it topping 50, it will definitely hit @ 40-- meaning @25 win, 6 place, etc., the bottom slots would get 400-500...

The contest will likely not last the whole meet-- i'd say under 30 for wagering purposes<g>...

And as for the math on the show parlay: let's be charitable & say one's lucky enough to find a bunch of $3 show-priced horses(one successfully avoids any lower show-priced standout).. X $10 = @ $1300 after 12 days, $2000 after 13, $3000 14.... but somewhere in there you now deflate your own prices to $2.20 / $2.10..... let's say one still reached 3K in that timely manner anyhow. Now let's continue our little private charity ball and assume $2.20 for a while: $3000 X $2.20 = $5,315 after another 5 days-- 19 days total. And we'll finish the rest of the way at $2.10 = $7500 after a further week and $9000 after 30 days-- assuming the contest even lasts that long.

Now let's try a more realistic but still very-generous $2.60(still meaning that one would dismiss cinches & instead pick ones paying a bit more AND accomplish this successfully) = after 20 days, $1900. Let's now apply $2.40 for a bit, = a bit under $4000 just 5 days later, the 24th day-- after which i don't believe $2.20 would be possible-- so we'll finish at $2.10 the rest of the way, = $5360 after 30 days... let's add 6 more days, = 7K

For this we've assumed that Saratoga's larger show pools can withstand somewhat larger wagers. And any larger payoffs one can muster in the beginning, such as $4 or more, will only take one more quickly to the point of minimum show prices-- assuming one could do this without fail in spite of the large fields, wet days, longshot days...

We've been charitable because I doubt if, when making such a show parlay, one can forego sure low-priced standouts & go for larger prices successfully-- as in a cumulative-type contest.

I'll be glad to stand corrected if.......

This contest just requires a go for it attitude, and a bit of luck.

Tastes great & less filling!!!
.

[Light]

Don't understand how my point is reputed by your math.Anyway you slice it seems like the parlay according to even your own figures is going to outpay the $400-$500 the 8th 9th and 10th players get.

But realistically, If my parlay built up to say$400,I wouldn't have the balls to bet it all to show. What I would do at that point(if I ever reached it) would be to bag half my bankroll and resart with $200. Then I would feel able to go past $400 to another level,say $800. Then bag half again and restart with $400 etc.This way,you accomplish 2 things:

1)You keep from self defeating your own show payoffl and

2) When your parlay breaks,you still have a decent profit to show for it. In the contest you get zilch

[Light]

You know Charles,these eliminator contests are really inspiring me to do some kind of show parlay. This is the first year I've known about or played them. The fact that I went 7-7 at AP before I got eliminated and am now 7-7 at Calder,makes it seem realistic to make some serious dough from a show parlay.

[charleslanger]

Yes, it seem easy-- but playing with real money often causes different selections...some of my selections i wouldn't bet with serious money, electing instead to pass....unknown / negative issues one would accept in a contest become greatly magnified with real money riding... Also, 7 day samples are infinitesimally small.....

I'd recommend tracking selections on paper for a whole meet-- as it serves the dual purpose of practicing for the contest / getting a feel... and then use the actual cashing % to formulate a strategy(you may even find a positive roi in the win column!).

Show's doable in the following manner:
Using sessions of 20 AND using Pinnacle because of its 7% no-restriction / no-minimum rebate that is to boot paid daily: so that it may optionally be added as you go along(bonus is disabled when place or show pays $2.20 or less: i have a strategy for this later on), if one can beat say 80%-- then doing parlays of 3...but the real breakthrough will come if that % can approach 90-- then the parlays can be upped to 4-- just this one more will make a huge difference.

Also needed will be constantly-updated access to all pools simultaneously(& i don't mean having to switch screens between the show & place pools) and a way to quickly calculate payoffs, as with a program like ATR-- i don't use anything: just do it mentally, but would not recommend this<g>.

(At the risk of confusing things: study all tracks possible-- if more than one can be found, then the profits of a month can theoretically be achieved in 2-3 days because not only will there be more plays, but because the number of parlays will be much greater(& safely too): combine parlays of 3/4 times 3/4 tracks= Zowie!
Of course, there will be intricacies such as maybe passing the last 2-3 weeks of the meet that leads into say, Del Mar or Saratoga-- because you're not sure now who's trying & who's holding back for the premier meet, if the track is front-speed-tilted now you may not like a horse that shows bad breaks at times, or has similar such in the next stall(s) to it, is young and on its initial rail start -- and what do you do when a lesser jock takes the mount on a cinch, etc.)

To avoid low payoffs / no rebate, one will need some rules like possibly these:

Field of 5 or less and whenever show pays $2.20 or less the bet becomes PLACE instead--this would NOT apply in the following exceptions: that probable low payoff will only occur with 3 particular horses all having to finish in the money, if place will likely also pay $2.20 or less, if win odds dip below 2/5 to either 1/5 or 1/9--at those odds there should be no play.
You will have to decide if willing to accept that low payoff & no rebate-- lots of times it may be worth it, especially at tracks that pay minimum $2.20, and those with dime breakarage like Nyra.
Do not dismiss offhand odds-on choices as paying too little: often 3/5 & below horses pay similarly across 2 or even all of the in the money pools.

And update: 1st place is now @ 20K, 2nd 5k, 3rd 3K..........

[Light]

You are very correct about reality play and contest make believe money. The psychological difference can affect your judgement in selecting a horse when you have a few hundred at stake.

That's why,your strategy should be mechanical rather than judgemental. The qualifying horse should be a horse that posseses certain qualities you consider positives and not have those you consider negative,like the one that got me eliminated from the AP contest(I.E. no works 22 days)

I would not accept less than $2.60 for show. I would look for $2.80 and understand that it may pay $2.60. Otherwise,have to pass. The paltry reward of $2.20 or $2.40 is not worth the risk

[charleslanger]

I say no works in less then 4 weeks is ok-- but does the horse have access to private facitlites anywhow-- maybe his work was missed at the track, he received plentty of galops / canters... i prefer to look at lilely purpose & intent from trainer's point of view-- and is there a strong chance that the horse is ready to improve his fig, rather than hold steady....

[charleslanger]

Last full day to sign up......

My Showdown projected prize amounts:

1st-- $30K
2nd--$ 8,000
3rd-- $ 4
4rh-- $ 2.5
5th-- $ 2
6th-- $ 1.5
7th-- $ 1
8-10th $500.00

Send it in, will ya... deduct it from someone's allowance if you have to, smoke generic for a few days, drink bar vodka instead of Chopin or Absolut for a while....

[charleslanger]

Prize pool on its way to 42K