HONG KONG / ShaTin - SUN 10/16

[Nitro]

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with nice sized fields in ALL 11 races
(2 on the All Weather Dirt & 9 on Turf)

Post Time: Race #1 – 12:30 AM SUN EST

TVG is offering live video for the first 7 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here: (Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...gRedirect=true

I'll return with my early selections shortly.

GL if you’re playing!

[Robert Fischer]

Good luck

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Good luck

Thank you Robert!
I sort of feel some additional pressure this morning after posting the summary of the Dutching success over the last 7 race days. My goal is to hit every race.

[Nitro]

I’m not going to be posting any live selections at Hong Kong this morning.

I took a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have come up with some preliminary picks for each race.
Later on the live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 5 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause Key pick alterations, but they all look pretty solid for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns. Dutching Summary here:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=133995&page=1

There are at least 4 very competitive races this morning: R6 – R8 – R10 – R11
Good Luck today!

R#1 -1000M (5F) Turf.........1-4 W/ 7-5-9-10 .......12:30 AM EST
(Half of this field of 12 are 1st time starters!!)

R#2 - 1600M (8F) Turf.........1-3 W/ 2-4-10-14 …....1:00 AM EST
(I’ll be paying special attention on No. – 10)

R#3 - 1400M (7F) Turf.........2-1 W/ 8-11-6-5.......1:30 AM EST
(I’ll be paying special attention on No. – 5)

R#4 - 1200M (7F) AWD.........1-5 W/ 4-2-12-9…….2:00 AM EST
(Also watching tote action on No. – 10)

R#5 - 1400M (7F) Turf..........1-2 W/ 7-9-4-6........2:30 AM EST
(I’ll be paying special attention on No. – 6)

R#6 - 1600M (8F) Turf..........2-7 W/ 6-1-8-11-3…..3:00 AM EST
(I’ll be paying special attention on No. – 3 - a 1st time starter)

R#7 - 1800M (9F) Turf..........1-2 W/ 3-8-4-6........3:35 AM EST
(Also watching tote action on No. – 12)

R#8 -1200M (6F) AWD..........2-3 W/ 8-9-10-1 ….....4:05 AM EST
(Also watching tote action on No. - 11)

R#9 - 1400M (7F) Turf...........3-2 W/ 7-4-8-9..........4:35 AM EST
(Also watching tote action on No. – 6)

R#10 - 1000M (5F) Turf.........3-2 W/ 1-5-9-4-7........5:10 AM EST

R#11 - 1400M (7F) Turf...........2-9 W/ 1-4-7-8-5........5:45 AM EST
(If #2 Pakistan Star falters there could be some huge payoffs!)

I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
(The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.)

[CincyHorseplayer]

Our occasionally conflictive discussions have been fruitful brother. Good luck! You gonna do the BC so we can compare notes?

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Our occasionally conflictive discussions have been fruitful brother. Good luck! You gonna do the BC so we can compare notes?

No worries. All in good fun! Nothing like a spirited discussion.
I'll definitely be doing the BC races! I really enjoy those big fields.

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1-4 W/ 7-5-9-10.............. Results: 4-7-11-3 (2nd choice & Quin)
Dutch – 1 ( 2.9/1 ) – 4 ( 3.2/1 ) – 7 ( 4.8/1 ) - $30.00 – $30.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
2.9	3.2	4.8	BET	PRF	
$8	$8	$12			
$24	$22	$16	$60	$30	50%
$90	$90	$90

1 down & 10 to GO!

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1-3 W/ 2-4-10-14................... Results: 3-1-14-5 (2nd choice, Quin & Tri)
Dutch – 1 ( 2.3/1 ) – 3 ( 4.3/1 ) –2 ( 9.6/1 ) - $58.00 – $88.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT 	TOT 	PRF %
2.3	4.3	9.6	BET	PRF	
$7	$11	$21			
$42	$26	$14	$82	$58	71%
$140	$140	$140

2 for 2 down & 9 to GO!

[Nitro]

R#3 - 2-1 W/ 8-11-6-5............. Results: 8-11-2-6 (3rd choice – ALL of that one!)
Dutch – 2 ( 2.6/1 ) –1 ( 39/1 ) – 8 ( 11/1 ) - $177.00 – $265.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT 	TOT 	PRF %
2.6	11.0	39.0	BET	PRF	
$7	$24	$80			
$80	$24	$7	$111	$177	159%
$288	$288	$288

3 for 3 down & 8 to GO!

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1-5 W/ 4-2-12-9......... Results: 1 -5-4-7 (Top choice & Tri COLD - $167.40!)
Dutch – 1 ( 4.4/1 ) – 5 ( 4.5/1 ) – 4 ( 6.4/1 ) - $80.00 – $345.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT 	TOT 	PRF %
4.4	4.5	6.4	BET	PRF	
$11	$11	$15			
$30	$30	$22	$82	$80	98%
$162	$162	$162

4 for 4 down & 7 to GO!

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1-2 W/ 7-9-4-6......... Results: 9-3-10-7 (4th choice w/good late action moved up Live - replaced #2)
Dutch – 1 ( 2.9/1 ) – 2 ( 42/1 ) – 7 ( 5.7/1 ) - ($73.00) – $272.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT 	TOT 	PRF %
2.9	5.7	42.0	BET	PRF	
$8	$13	$86			
$44	$25	$4	$73	$99	135%
$172	$172	$172

4 for 5 down & 6 to GO!

[Nitro]

R#6 - 2-7 W/ 6-1-8-11-3.......Results: 8-2-7-3 (5th choice – Quin $64.40 & Tri Bx $510.40!)
Dutch – 2 ( 6.1/1 ) – 7 ( 2.3/1 ) – 6 ( 7.1/1 ) - ($62.00) – $210.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT 	TOT 	PRF %
2.3	6.1	7.1	BET	PRF	
$7	$14	$16			
$32	$16	$14	$62	$46	75%
$108	$108	$108

4 for 6 down & 5 to GO!

[kevb]

R7:

Can KK wire 'em at 60-1? We'll soon find out.

WP 9

[kevb]

Oops

WP 11

[Nitro]

R#7 - 1-2 W/ 3-8-4-6……….Results: 2 -8-14-3 (2nd choice & Quin $116.80)
Dutch – 1 ( 4.2/1 ) – 2 ( 12/1 ) – 3 ( 8.8/1 ) - $170.00 – $380.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT 	TOT 	PRF %
4.2	8.8	12.0	BET	PRF	
$10	$20	$26			
$52	$28	$20	$100	$170	170%
$270	$270	$270

5 for 7 down & 4 to GO!
Considering our O.A. 54% hit % w/Early picks, this might be a good time to slow it down or stop.