Big Week at Saratoga

[Actor]

A week or so ago I finished work on a program that I've been working on for some time. I wrote a similar program about 20 years ago that used the same algorithm. This is version 2.0

William L. Scott's book Investing At the Race Track has a series of chapters on a "Big Week at Belmont." Tom Ainslie's The Compleat Horseplayer has a similar treatment at Monmouth. As a beta test for my new program I'm going to do a "Big Week at Saratoga" starting this Wednesday, 17 Aug 2016. There has been some speculation on this site that the authors of some handicapping books have back fitted results to fit their method. That won't be the case here as I'm definitely trying to predict the future.

I've been following PhantomOnTour's "one play a day" thread in the Selections forum. Since this is a beta test I thought it best to put this thread in this forum rather than Selections. Keep in mind that this is a test. If you want to risk your money based on the prognostications I post here then fine, just don't come crying to me if you lose.

Down to business. Wednesday, 17 August 2016, Saratoga.

1. #8 UNSINKABLE
2. #5 LUTHERAN MISS
3. #4 ASKFOR FORGIVENESS
4. #1 ALL IN FUN
5. #9 SUGAR TRIP
6. #6 GIOVANNA BLUES
7. #3 GRAND CANDY
8. #4 DON DULCE
9. #9 CHINA GROVE
10. #4 CHOMSKY

Note: as this is a beta test I've posted a selection for each race. However ..

• Race 1 is a marathon of over two miles. Personally I'd pass that one or else just bet to show.
• Race 3 has three first time starters and the program has simply thrown them out. This is another race I'd pass.

[Red Knave]

FYI, race 1 is the weekly steeplechase.

[Actor]

Originally Posted by Red Knave

FYI, race 1 is the weekly steeplechase.

Good to know. Thanks for the heads up.

The file from BRIS definitely identifies the race as "T" meaning turf. Steeplechase should be "s" according to their description of the file. I wonder if I should try and find some other way to identify the race as a steeplechase or just let the program stand as it is.

[Actor]

Here are the top three selections for each race except races 1 & 3. If the top selection is scratched I'll go to the next one. I'm also going to box the three in exacta & trifecta and see what happens.

• Race 1 ..
• Race 2
  • #5 LUTHERAN MISS
  • #1 JADEMARIE
  • #6 SHAKESPERIAN DREAM
• Race 3 ..
• Race 4
  • #1 ALL IN FUN
  • #2 AKATEA
  • #3 MY CARA MIA
• Race 5
  • #9 SUGAR TRIP
  • #5 JUSTALITTLEBITMORE
  • #1 USSERY'S ALLEY
• Race 6
  • #6 GIOVANNA BLUES
  • #4 CRYSTAL WAVE
  • #8 LLANITA
• Race 7
  • #3 GRAND CANDY
  • #6 CORT
  • #4 LORD OF LOVE
• Race 8
  • #4 DON DULCE
  • #3 WIZARDLY
  • #1 TRANSPARENT
• Race 9
  • #9 CHINA GROVE
  • #1 BIG CITY DREAMIN
  • #7 LULL
• Race 10
  • #4 CHOMSKY
  • #12 LUBSEN
  • #3 TREE TOP LOVER

[Red Knave]

Originally Posted by Actor

The file from BRIS definitely identifies the race as "T" meaning turf. Steeplechase should be "s" according to their description of the file. I wonder if I should try and find some other way to identify the race as a steeplechase or just let the program stand as it is.

Could you check the weight assigned? i.e. if >135 or something?
Maybe it's a hurdle rather than a steeplechase? I know there's a difference but I'm unclear on what it is.

[Actor]

A hurdle is on a flat course with barriers that must be jumped.

A steeplechase is over open country, generally not flat, and may or may not include jumps.

That's according to my dictionary.

[kingfin66]

Don't you want to wait for scratches?

[PaceAdvantage]

Looking forward to your results Actor. Hope you discover that you really have something here...

[Actor]

Originally Posted by kingfin66

Don't you want to wait for scratches?

Ideally, yes. The program does make provision for scratches. Unfortunately I have other obligations at this time and cannot spend the next 6 afternoons tweaking the program's input. I've posted the top three. If the selection is scratched then bet on the next one. If all three are scratched then pass the race.

[Actor]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Looking forward to your results Actor. Hope you discover that you really have something here...

Thanks PA.

[Actor]

• Race 1
  • #4 DREAM MAN
  • #5 ARTIC NORTH
  • #1 WINTER SPRINGS
• Race 2
  • #13 GREY GLORY
  • #10 SHADOW RIDER
  • #11 CHUBBY MASTER
• Race 3
  • #3 CHASE MOTTO
  • #6 BLENHEIM PALACE
  • #4 PRESUMPTUOUS
• Race 4
  • #5 ONE SIDED
  • #7 CLIFTON PLEASURE
  • #1 BATTLE OF EVERMORE
• Race 5
  • #16 TAINTED ANGEL
  • #15 SONG FOR THE SOUL
  • #2 MY MISSION
• Race 6
  • #3 ETHAN HUNT
  • #1 CHATTER PATTERN
  • #8 MIRAI
• Race 7
  • #3 FIFTH AND MADISON
  • #4 INHERITANCE
  • #1 LADY CONSTANCE
• Race 8
  • #1 SARATOGA DREAMER
  • #5 MEWANNAROSE
  • #2 DOWSE'S BEACH
• Race 9
  • #7 HOT CITY GIRL
  • #3 QUEZON
  • #4 COURT DANCER
• Race 10
  • #5 PECULIAR SENSATION
  • #4 IRISH HOPE
  • #3 SLAPSTICK

Worth noting: Races 5 & 6 are Maiden Special Weights for 2 year olds and are loaded with first time starters. Race 10 is a maiden claimer with 3 first time starters. Caveat emptor.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Actor

A week or so ago I finished work on a program that I've been working on for some time. I wrote a similar program about 20 years ago that used the same algorithm. This is version 2.0

William L. Scott's book Investing At the Race Track has a series of chapters on a "Big Week at Belmont." Tom Ainslie's The Compleat Horseplayer has a similar treatment at Monmouth. As a beta test for my new program I'm going to do a "Big Week at Saratoga" starting this Wednesday, 17 Aug 2016. There has been some speculation on this site that the authors of some handicapping books have back fitted results to fit their method. That won't be the case here as I'm definitely trying to predict the future.

I've been following PhantomOnTour's "one play a day" thread in the Selections forum. Since this is a beta test I thought it best to put this thread in this forum rather than Selections. Keep in mind that this is a test. If you want to risk your money based on the prognostications I post here then fine, just don't come crying to me if you lose.

Down to business. Wednesday, 17 August 2016, Saratoga.

1. #8 UNSINKABLE
2. #5 LUTHERAN MISS
3. #4 ASKFOR FORGIVENESS
4. #1 ALL IN FUN
5. #9 SUGAR TRIP
6. #6 GIOVANNA BLUES
7. #3 GRAND CANDY
8. #4 DON DULCE
9. #9 CHINA GROVE
10. #4 CHOMSKY

Note: as this is a beta test I've posted a selection for each race. However ..

• Race 1 is a marathon of over two miles. Personally I'd pass that one or else just bet to show.
• Race 3 has three first time starters and the program has simply thrown them out. This is another race I'd pass.

You system's picks look logical and appear to be sound picks on today's card. But if you have any hope of being a successful bettor with a computer handicapping system, there are two things you have to do. 1). You have to come up with some sort of Best Bet or spot plays. That could simply be one of your top rated horses that goes off as an overlay. It's almost impossible to bet every race and show a profit over the long run. I say almost, because it is possible if you pick a lot of longshots on top.

2). Your system has identified either the morning line favorite or the second choice in 8 of the 10 races. The only potential value plays appear to be Grand Candy (who I think is first time turf), and China Grove, who is 6-1 on the morning line.

Now I know that it's only day 1, but if your system picks the obvious betting choices in almost every race it, and your goal is to actually come out with a betting profit, you can't possibly succeed. The only systems I've ever seen that are worth following are systems that think outside of the box and are good at picking longshots. Many people have put together systems that identify and grade common handicapping factors and then rank the horses. These systems are doomed to fail because they don't evaluate the nuances of handicapping, which are crucial, such as trip handicapping, pace analysis, etc.

As you test your system, my suggestion is, see if there is any value in the horses that it picks second or third. Sometimes these are the better plays because they are ranked contenders that will not go off as the favorites.

[Tor Ekman]

Based on a quick comparison of 2 days' selections, the system looks like it coincides at about 66% with e-ponies default bias which generally lands on the logicals

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by pandy

You system's picks look logical and appear to be sound picks on today's card. But if you have any hope of being a successful bettor with a computer handicapping system, there are two things you have to do. 1). You have to come up with some sort of Best Bet or spot plays. That could simply be one of your top rated horses that goes off as an overlay. It's almost impossible to bet every race and show a profit over the long run. I say almost, because it is possible if you pick a lot of longshots on top.

2). Your system has identified either the morning line favorite or the second choice in 8 of the 10 races. The only potential value plays appear to be Grand Candy (who I think is first time turf), and China Grove, who is 6-1 on the morning line.

Now I know that it's only day 1, but if your system picks the obvious betting choices in almost every race it, and your goal is to actually come out with a betting profit, you can't possibly succeed. The only systems I've ever seen that are worth following are systems that think outside of the box and are good at picking longshots. Many people have put together systems that identify and grade common handicapping factors and then rank the horses. These systems are doomed to fail because they don't evaluate the nuances of handicapping, which are crucial, such as trip handicapping, pace analysis, etc.

As you test your system, my suggestion is, see if there is any value in the horses that it picks second or third. Sometimes these are the better plays because they are ranked contenders that will not go off as the favorites.

In all fairness to Actor's selections, today's card at Saratoga looks to be a chalk-fest, according to my figures as well. You're advice is spot-on, but lets see what the week brings first....Who knows, Actor may knock'em dead, and then again, maybe not.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Tor Ekman

Based on a quick comparison of 2 days' selections, the system looks like it coincides at about 66% with e-ponies default bias which generally lands on the logicals

e-ponies does a fine job of ranking obvious contenders, for an automated system. But, I'm surprised he hasn't tried to create an alternative system which picks higher priced horses. If you have something that takes all of the obvious factors and ranks them, to find something that may actually have a respectable ROI, you could start to back out some of the factors, or, add other factors that evaluate a horse's ability besides the obvious form and final time.

It seems like an oxymoron, but you actually have to program the system to reduce the win percentage if you want to have any chance of developing a profitable system. Any system that's programed to try to pick the winner of every race is essentially designed to lose. So you basically have to win less to win more.