20% take out

[ldiatone]

the next 3 paragraphs are from a on line book explaining how one will always lose money at the racetrack. it reads no possible way. all horse players do is select random numbers.

Here is statistically and realistically why your horse race gambling bankroll will always be doomed and usually doomed quickly. In horse racing clocking time of the races, the time honored handicapping measuring stick is one second equals 5 horse lengths. In an average thoroughbred six furlongs (¾ of a mile) race time for example of 1:10 (one minute and 10 seconds), this would equal 70 seconds. These 70 seconds multiplied by the 5 lengths per second equals 350 lengths (70 seconds x 5 lengths = 350 lengths). So a six furlongs horse race is equivalent to approximately 350 horse lengths. Only just a small 1% difference either way in the performance of a horse improving or worsening means a difference of 3.5 lengths (1% of 350 lengths is 3.5 lengths) each way or a spread of 7 full lengths. There is not any possible, realistic, predictable way that you, the trainer or the owner really knows if a horse in physical racing condition is going to be just a small 1% better or worse than its last race of one or more weeks ago.

Then handicappers have the added hopeless task of factoring in not only the horse they want to bet with its 1% or 7 lengths spread differential, but also all of the other horses in the race as to whether they will improve or worsen by only 1% or 7 lengths. A racehorse could maintain the same form or could possibly change by 2% or more which could very realistically be a 14 lengths or more spread. Can you see what an unsolvable puzzle it really is trying to handicap horses? You cannot possibly know the exact physical condition of a racehorse, especially from a program or newspaper, in regards to trying to make money betting against a huge 20% takeout.

So it is plain to see that there is a very probable 7 to 14 lengths form differential from the last race of a horse because of a very probable 1% to 2% change in its physical condition. Then with factoring in the physical conditions of all of the other horses in the race, trying to make money figuring out the winner is the same thing as picking random numbers. You may believe that you are handicapping winners when picking a few. But in actual true reality fact, you are simply playing random numbers on all horse bets and a few happened to win for you. But when they win for you, only 80% instead of 100% of the monies in the betting pool are received because of the 20% racetrack takeout. You will go broke whether you bet on favorites or long shots. You will go broke whether you bet on speed horses, stalkers or closers. You will go broke betting on good jockeys and trainers. You will go broke betting on bad jockeys and trainers. It does not matter what you bet on or how you bet, you will always go broke at the racetrack.

[Magister Ludi]

Virtually all horse bettors would be well-advised to heed this advice, especially the many noise-trading chronic gamblers.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I have known two profitable horseplayers in my time...both strictly win bettors, very selective value players with tremendous discipline. They worked long hard hours at their craft sticking strictly with the lower takeout win wager. Both possessed extreme confidence in their ability to win money and coincidentally both never gambled on any other venue but horses.

[Fox]

This is from an online book? It's not even written that well.

It is a waste of words.

[ldiatone]

Originally Posted by Fox

This is from an online book? It's not even written that well.

It is a waste of words.

the rest of the book has about 72 chapters explaining how bad ALL gambling is. just happened to get this part during a search.

[pandy]

From my experience, people who say that the game is impossible to beat and results are random are simply not good handicappers. If you're a bad handicapper, then, yes, it's random.

[mannyberrios]

Originally Posted by pandy

From my experience, people who say that the game is impossible to beat and results are random are simply not good handicappers. If you're a bad handicapper, then, yes, it's random.

Yessssssss

[no breathalyzer]

Not to red board but i just took a 4/5 lock at CD and got paid over 11-1 because i know how to handicap .. so yes you are correct.