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02-02-2016, 01:23 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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What Betting Markets are Saying about the Election
https://theconversation.com/what-bet...-results-53861
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Heading into the Iowa caucuses, all the main forecasting methodologies ranked Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton as favourites to win the first contests in their respective nomination battles. In the end, they were half right, if only just): while Clinton managed to squeak the narrowest of wins over Bernie Sanders, Trump came second behind Ted Cruz of Texas, with Florida’s Marco Rubio nipping at his heels.
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Of the opinion polls, the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics survey is generally regarded as the gold standard in terms of the Iowa state caucuses. In its last survey before voting began, it had Trump on the Republican side leading Ted Cruz by 28% to 23%, with Marco Rubio on 15%. For the Democrats, Clinton was leading Sanders by 45% to 42%. This survey proved wide of the mark and, in that regard, it was broadly consistent with other recent polling.
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Then there’s the panel-of-experts model. One such group is the Politico Caucus, a panel of strategists, operatives and activists. In its final survey, Republicans were split, but put Donald Trump in pole position, with Cruz second and Rubio third. Democratic insiders were less divided, coming out strongly in favour of a decisive Clinton victory. So, also wrong.
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As Americans woke up after the count that map had changed significantly, at least on the Republican side. The new favourite to win the Republican nomination on the betting markets is Rubio, who emerged from the polling with a 53% chance of being the eventual nominee, followed by Trump on 26%, Cruz on 14% and Bush on 5%.
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Last edited by highnote; 02-02-2016 at 01:29 PM.
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02-02-2016, 01:51 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Diez meses en Port St. Lucie, FL; two months in the Dominican Republic
Posts: 4,355
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Originally Posted by highnote
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Are people confusing who can win the general election with who will get the nomination? I agree that Rubio has a better chance agains the Dems than Trump in November,but I can only see Rubio getting the nomination if he 1)wins New Hampshire ( a must, 2nd place won't do) and 2)the rest of the mainstream Republicans get behind Rubio the rest of the way, which means a potential civil war inside the party.Trump will not go quietly into that good night and he certainly is not looking for GOP leadership approval.And money is not an issue for him.
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02-02-2016, 01:55 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Originally Posted by barahona44
Are people confusing who can win the general election with who will get the nomination? I agree that Rubio has a better chance agains the Dems than Trump in November,but I can only see Rubio getting the nomination if he 1)wins New Hampshire ( a must, 2nd place won't do) and 2)the rest of the mainstream Republicans get behind Rubio the rest of the way, which means a potential civil war inside the party.Trump will not go quietly into that good night and he certainly is not looking for GOP leadership approval.And money is not an issue for him.
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Good points.
The morning after the caucus, even though Rubio finished 3rd, the betting markets make him the front-runner to win the nomination.
What are chances of Trump leaving the party and running as an independent if he fails to win the nomination?
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02-02-2016, 03:57 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,058
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02-02-2016, 07:39 PM
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#5
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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Every year, Iowa means nothing.
Except when it's a Republican who the media plus lots of others hate and he finishes second. Then all of a sudden it means everything.
Some pretty funny stuff some of you are trying to pass off. But I see through it as always.
The guy whom everyone wrote off the moment he stepped into the race finishes second and now he's done.
The guy many people wrote off as an afterthought as recently as a few days ago finishes THIRD and now he's suddenly a lock to win the nomination.
IOWA people...we're talking IOWA.
Pass that crack pipe...
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 02-02-2016 at 07:41 PM.
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02-02-2016, 08:36 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: central fla.
Posts: 4,874
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I would bet there's MORE crack in NY than Iowa...even if you do it fairly and just go %'s... 
sorry couldn't resist...that said
am thinking deep down...the "DONald" wants no part of being president...just good business and exposure for future deals...
just my 2 cents...1943 copper that is...
__________________
got handed a lemon...make lemonade....add sugar or brown sugar or stevia or my personal favorite....miracle fruit....google it...thank me later...
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02-02-2016, 10:01 PM
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#7
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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I must be as naive as they come...because if what you just said about Trump's true intentions is accurate, I'd be so absolutely shocked, it would make me finally want to swear off of politics as my sideshow hobby for good.
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02-02-2016, 10:11 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: FL
Posts: 1,164
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Any entity that Bush's chances at 4% can be COMPLETELY ignored. He has zero chance.
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02-02-2016, 11:53 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Every year, Iowa means nothing.
Some pretty funny stuff some of you are trying to pass off. But I see through it as always.
The guy many people wrote off as an afterthought as recently as a few days ago finishes THIRD and now he's suddenly a lock to win the nomination.
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I have no idea who will win. I just think it is interesting to see how the betting markets responded after the caucus.
If the betting markets are wrong about Rubio then it's time to take the rubber band off of the bankroll and take a short position on Rubio and go long the others.
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02-03-2016, 12:17 AM
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#10
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Ted Cruz will protect all of Iowa.
From eye sis.
[YT=""]43nY6DBW1ms[/YT]
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02-03-2016, 01:17 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Every year, Iowa means nothing.
Except when it's a Republican who the media plus lots of others hate and he finishes second. Then all of a sudden it means everything.
Some pretty funny stuff some of you are trying to pass off. But I see through it as always.
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You're calling Trump as the nominee? I'm confused as to what you are "seeing through."
Cruz winning Iowa means nothing as well. He won't be the nominee.
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02-03-2016, 01:41 PM
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#12
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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Originally Posted by elysiantraveller
You're calling Trump as the nominee? I'm confused as to what you are "seeing through."
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Simply seeing the bullshit of turning something into nothing and vice versa...not complicated.
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02-03-2016, 06:44 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,472
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On the Republican side whoever thumps their Bible the hardest usually wins.
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02-07-2016, 01:19 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 17,095
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An interesting article at Politico (written before last night's debate):
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Paul Krishnamurty is a British professional political gambler currently touring America to watch the primaries firsthand—and to bet on the election. He’s reporting regularly for Politico Magazine on how the gambling markets see the race—who’s up, who’s down, and where the smart money is moving.
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__________________
A man's got to know his limitations. -- Dirty Harry
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02-07-2016, 02:26 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: St. Louis suburb
Posts: 1,761
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by MutuelClerk
On the Republican side whoever thumps their Bible the hardest usually wins.
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There are political ideologies on all sides. Alongside Dodos and the T-Rex in any museum extinction exhibit are "Pro-life Democrats".
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"I like to come here (Saratoga) every year to visit my money." ---Joe E. Lewis
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