Calling The Bottom (short term).

[Tape Reader]

I think that we get a rally from here (185.52 SPY low) towards (SPY 201.90.)

Any other Gals/Guys want to take a guess?

Tape Reader

[Ocala Mike]

It all hinges on China/Oil/World Crisis or Not. Think it's too early to be a buyer.

[whodoyoulike]

I think S&P 500 (currently 1880.33) will go lower probably until after earnings reporting which will be sometime mid-March. Will have to re-evaluate going forward after overall earning results are reported. But, I'm not saying there won't be up days.

I can't see a majority of companies reporting good earnings for their 4th quarter and for the year 2015. If the S&P is higher then it probably means the P/E ratio(s) will be higher because earnings will be lower.

The DJIA is currently at 15988.08; the NASDAQ is 4488.42 and the 10 yr yield is 2.0365%.

[ReplayRandall]

I don't like to gamble with the FED scheduled to raise rates 3 times in 2016 . Stay out of the market until you see the following:

DOW- 12,500

NASDAQ- 2,800

S&P 500- 1,350

Don't worry, you'll see these figures before November 2016. Until then, buy a little Gold and a lot of Silver.....

[sammy the sage]

Basically the upper 1%...mostly BIG banks are scalping mom & pop and middle class savings...where they've BEEN FORCED to put their money...for any kind of return...an illusion so to speak for many...

They have to be really REALLY careful not to BLEED the patient dry...or TOO much..

So how much do they SKIM...if you think NORMAL models will tell you...think you're going to get it in the short hairs...

History stock market 101...the crashing of basic metals, oil ect. the previous month foretold last weeks drop in the markets over-all...

again...this country is more outta balance than 1929....ssssooooo....who knows...maybe they can avoid similar...1987, 1999, 2007,...says probably not...

b.o.l. all still playing...

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

It all hinges on China/Oil/World Crisis or Not. Think it's too early to be a buyer.

way to early

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

Basically the upper 1%...mostly BIG banks are scalping mom & pop and middle class savings...where they've BEEN FORCED to put their money...for any kind of return...an illusion so to speak for many...

They have to be really REALLY careful not to BLEED the patient dry...or TOO much..

So how much do they SKIM...if you think NORMAL models will tell you...think you're going to get it in the short hairs...

History stock market 101...the crashing of basic metals, oil ect. the previous month foretold last weeks drop in the markets over-all...

again...this country is more outta balance than 1929....ssssooooo....who knows...maybe they can avoid similar...1987, 1999, 2007,...says probably not...

b.o.l. all still playing...

my favorite saying, "the job of the markets is to take the most amount of money away from the most amount of people in the shortest amount of time".

a friend of mine had a banker convince him to move his money over from a certificate of deposit that became due after 10 years into some mutuel fund. he convinced him that the fund had a good conservative track record and it was safe. he asked me about it and i told him in the world of markets nothing is safe, i told him just buy gold. he decided to listen to his banker buddy, after a month he is now down 25% on this safe investment. i told him he was going to lose a lot more before its over. so far he still hasn't listened. probably because i am rough around the edges and don't wear fancy suits and drive a 20 year old car instead of the $125,000 Mercedes Benz that the banker drives after grabbing money from all the suckers that think they are investors.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

I don't like to gamble with the FED scheduled to raise rates 3 times in 2016 . Stay out of the market until you see the following:

DOW- 12,500

NASDAQ- 2,800

S&P 500- 1,350

Don't worry, you'll see these figures before November 2016. Until then, buy a little Gold and a lot of Silver.....

The Fed's next move may be a rate CUT, not an increase. If they raise again, we will have a recession. Market odds of a January 2016 HIKE: 0% Odds of a January CUT: 10%

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

Basically the upper 1%...mostly BIG banks are scalping mom & pop and middle class savings...where they've BEEN FORCED to put their money...for any kind of return...an illusion so to speak for many...

They have to be really REALLY careful not to BLEED the patient dry...or TOO much..
...

Net interest margins are below long-term averages; therefore, I'm not sure how that's scalping. The vast, vast majority of banks would prefer Fed funds at 300 bps, but that would kill the economy.

I agree with you on the Fed's desire to push savers into riskier assets.

[Secondbest]

I'm not trying to be a wise guy here but there is old saying "if you didn't call the top what makes you think you can call the bottom" or the reverse.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

I'm not trying to be a wise guy here but there is old saying "if you didn't call the top what makes you think you can call the bottom" or the reverse.

One of these guys did come close to calling the top. I think it was OcalaMike, but I may be wrong.

[Secondbest]

Excellent call. When he thinks a bottom is in we should pay attention

[tucker6]

what is the over/under on a fed rate hike this year? IMO, one at best, and that will come later this year depending on how China lands. My money is on China landing relatively hard. The Chinese have started rounding up the rich folk in anticipation of the blame game when they crash. Always follow actions and not words. That tells me that a hard landing is coming.

[reckless]

Calling the bottom of the stock market is a game I never played nor should anyone else, but whom am I to give such advice??

If investors here are on the sidelines mainly because they think the drop in oil prices will crater both the stock markets and the US economy they are making a huge mistake.

If investors here are on the sidelines right now because they think the slowdown in China will crater both the stock markets and the US economy they are making a huge mistake.

Cheap oil is a driver that will fuel a manufacturing, transportation and consuming spurt and that will lead to higher corporate profits and stock prices.

China's problems are not directly related to the US economy and our stock markets. Yes, we are told by the financial media every day that 'oil' and 'China' is the reason why the market is correcting. The media is wrong in principle and I also feel they are also deliberately lying.

China's woes are actually good for both the US economy and stock markets because it causes a deflationary effect there and US companies that manufacture their products there get it done cheaper, which translates to betters earnings and higher stock prices. Products actually become cheaper and more affordable here, spurring growth.

As long as people invest in companies that have a history of growing sales and earnings, generate and grow positive free cash flow (FCF), pay and regularly increase dividends and earn relative high returns on capital and equity, and sell at a reasonable multiple to FCF, one cannot help but make money investing in such individual stocks.

With the markets dropping these past few weeks, now is as good a time as any to consider buying stocks. There are some great companies out there selling for compelling prices.

[Ocala Mike]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

One of these guys did come close to calling the top. I think it was OcalaMike, but I may be wrong.

No, I believe it was PICSIX.