Belmont Beyer

[cj]

Just a best guess, this is very tough with only one or two races run at this distance all year and no other two turn races at Belmont. But, studying all the other races and looking at the time of the Belmont, I think Birdstone should get no more than 100, probably high 90s.

Just another guess, but I think Beyer will assign a little higher, 105 or so, as a projection.

Pretty weak performance on that track. Smarty just isn't the same horse at that distance. The sad thing is, with a better trip, it probably would have been enough against these slugs.

[highnote]

cj
That Beyer fig of 100-105 sounds about right. The track seemed pretty fast. One of the earlier 6f sprints was run in 108.04 with internal fractions for something like 23.2 and 43.

However, I wonder if the track was playing fair or maybe slow, but the horses were of top quality making the track seem fast when it actually wasn't?

Smarty went 10f in 200.52 in the Belmont. Not bad considering what his final times were in the Derby and Preakness.

I know people say Pimlico was slow on Preakness day and the day before, but still Smarty's Preakness time was slow. Makes me wonder if that 118 Beyer was a little high.

On the other hand, given that the Preakness is shorter and Smarty was probably very fit maybe a 118 is justifiable.

I don't make speed figs anymore so I'm just trying to make sense of all this.

[cj]

I've learned enough about Pimlico to know I always knock 5 points off any 1 3/16 race there, automatic adjustment for me. That would leave a 113, which still would have destroyed this field. Either Smarty wasn't himself, or it was the distance, or the bad trip, or just worn out, whatever. He wasn't the same horse

[highnote]

I think you're right, it was a combination of things.

I was on the rail at the KY Derby and in the grandstand for the Belmont. Smarty's coat was shinier in the Derby. He looked a little dull in the coat yesterday. His fitness had probably started to decline a little bit.

Birdstone skipped the Preakness. He was probably very fit yesterday. Zito is no slouch.

[Valuist]

I would guess over on the 105. We really can't project anything for Birdstone. His race is the Derby was in slop, the Lane's End was in slop (despite what the pps say) and then he had an allowance win in which he was totally under wraps. There was still some pretty serious gappage, like there usually is in the Belmont. Royal Assault was third but he was way behind the top two. I'm guessing a 110.

[cj]

My brother told me he saw a bunch of kidney sweat on Smarty before the race. Anyone else notice this? I didn't see it, but he knows what he is talking about. It certainly isn't a good sign.

To paraphrase him, he said Takach probably ran people over getting to the windows.

hi it depends if smarty jones won he would get about a 112 since he lost and birdstone can't be shown to have jumped up to high it will get about a 105.

the fact of the matter is that the final beyer time doesn't take ito account pace, so when a race falls apart and they come home in 27 seconds the winner is credited with the high but false beyer.

last face it everyone knows smarty ran a superir race even though he lost.

mike

[highnote]

Originally posted by daylami

last face it everyone knows smarty ran a superir race even though he lost.

mike

Mike,
Smarty ran a very good race.

He didn't run the superior race. He ran a superior race for 10 furlongs and maybe a little more, but not for 12 furlongs.

The winner ran the superior race. The goal is to win, not come second. Birdstone was the superior horse and ran the superior race on Saturday.

Of course, that's just my opinion.

[andicap]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
My brother told me he saw a bunch of kidney sweat on Smarty before the race. Anyone else notice this? I didn't see it, but he knows what he is talking about. It certainly isn't a good sign.

To paraphrase him, he said Takach probably ran people over getting to the windows.

Shows how good my eyeball skills are. I was looking at smarty on the track to see if he was washed out and couldn't see anything. Of course I was pretty far away and people kept jostling me!

In the papers today Elliot said the horse was RANK, kept puling him and didn't relax and that's why he ran such fast fractions.

I saw no reporters blame the jockey and Servis exonerated him.

I can't believe people will say it means SJ can't' get 12F. He beat all but one and was withing 1 lousy length after chasing fast fractions. The horse's he was chasing were nowhere at the finish.

Smarty ran a very very strong race. Of course Secretariet won by 31 lengths after pressing a 109.3, two seconds faster than SJ, but Secretariat was the greatest 3 yr old ever.

I salute a gutsy race by SJ after a long grueling campaign and hope he rests up to enter the Haskell, Travers, an Oct. prep and Breeders Cup.

When is the Pa. Derby? I assume he will enter that. Servis I think has said he will enter his home state's big race as a reward to the track and fans there. If he enters that race, that would scramble his other plans of course.

[cj]

Pa Derby is Labor Day weekend if memory serves. Current plan is for that to be his return, then a race against older horses, then the BC Classic.

[nomadpat]

I noticed that at the beginning of the race-the camera angle behind the horses before they went around the first turn. I didn't know if it would mean anything because I wasn't sure if he had this tendency in the past at all?

[fiveouttasix]

The way I see it, If this just any old race and I'm studying the charts Smarty would be on my HTW list as the only pace horse still around at the finish and Birdstone would be on my bet against list as a perfect trip winner. So in my opinion as a gambler/horseplayer Smarty ran the superior race.

[sam i am]

I think the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. III) is on Labor day I think that is Monday the 6th of September.

[highnote]

Originally posted by fiveouttasix
The way I see it, If this just any old race and I'm studying the charts Smarty would be on my HTW list as the only pace horse still around at the finish and Birdstone would be on my bet against list as a perfect trip winner. So in my opinion as a gambler/horseplayer Smarty ran the superior race.

So, hypothetically speaking, if Smarty and Birdstone were entered in a 12 furlong race against the same competition in about 3 or 4 weeks, would you bet against Birdstone at 36-1 and bet on Smarty at 1/5?

[fiveouttasix]

Absolutely not. But if Birdstone is sent off as the favorite in his next race I would probably play against him.