American Pharoah PP2

[Kash$]

Draws post 2

Zayat rather have drawn outside due to the rail being tiring...

[cj]

This is what we have at TimeformUS for bias ratings. We don't do inside/outside, just speed closer:

Track	Day		Color
SAR	07/24/2015	Lt Blue
SAR	07/25/2015	Lt Blue
SAR	07/26/2015	Red
SAR	08/03/2015	Pink
SAR	08/08/2015	Blue
SAR	08/09/2015	Red
SAR	08/12/2015	Lt Blue
SAR	08/15/2015	Blue
SAR	08/16/2015	Lt Blue
SAR	08/17/2015	Red
SAR	08/23/2015	Blue
SAR	08/24/2015	Blue

Key:

Red - Speed+
Pink - Speed
Lt Blue - Closers
Blue - Closers +

[RacingFan1992]

Originally Posted by Kash$

Draws post 2

Zayat rather have drawn outside due to the rail being tiring...

Maybe that's a chink in the armor.

[Kash$]

Originally Posted by cj

This is what we have at TimeformUS for bias ratings. We don't do inside/outside, just speed closer:

Track	Day		Color
SAR	07/24/2015	Lt Blue
SAR	07/25/2015	Lt Blue
SAR	07/26/2015	Red
SAR	08/03/2015	Pink
SAR	08/08/2015	Blue
SAR	08/09/2015	Red
SAR	08/12/2015	Lt Blue
SAR	08/15/2015	Blue
SAR	08/16/2015	Lt Blue
SAR	08/17/2015	Red
SAR	08/23/2015	Blue
SAR	08/24/2015	Blue

Key:

Red - Speed+
Pink - Speed
Lt Blue - Closers
Blue - Closers +

CJ is inside/Outside just as important?Will TimeformUS add a feature indicating Ins/Out?

[cj]

Maybe someday when data is really available.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by cj

Maybe someday when data is really available.

Can you hire me ?

I'd love to quit my real job

[cj]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Can you hire me ?

I'd love to quit my real job

Someday

To clarify, obviously we can watch races and make judgements, but there would have to be a mechanical way to do it like we do speed/closers. There are just too many tracks running and subjective doesn't cut it.

[Fager Fan]

Clearly there is subjectivity in TF else those two races wouldn't be considered equal. There is no way that Beholders race wasn't superior, and every respected American figure maker has it as such.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Clearly there is subjectivity in TF else those two races wouldn't be considered equal. There is no way that Beholders race wasn't superior, and every respected American figure maker has it as such.

One thing I can assure you is that the names don't mean a damn thing when I make figures. On final time, which is what the other figure makers are reporting, I do have Beholder faster. But we don't just do final time. Clearly you don't know what you are talking about.

At least I don't have Materiality as the fastest 3yo in American still...ROFL.

Apparently Souper Lucky is also a faster horse than American Pharoah. Tonalist too. And Constituation. And Lea! Commissioner, Race Day and Sir Quisqueyano are his equal. People must be making a killing betting against such a slow horse.

[classhandicapper]

I'm in the process of doing my bias work for last week now. Either way, I like the idea of Zayat taking about bias. That's what I would do. These premier races should not be heavily influenced by biases. We've seen way too many of them around the country in the last couple of years where the track was a major factor.

The maintenance crews don't have perfect control, but if they are competent they should be watching the track all this week and making adjustments if necessary.

I'm a purist. I want to see the best horse win these big races. It's 40 years since I started playing this game and I still remember big races that were decided by bias. It has kind of distorted the historical record because the younger sharpies of today form opinions based on the PPs without knowing what actually happened in many of those races.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by cj

One thing I can assure you is that the names don't mean a damn thing when I make figures. On final time, which is what the other figure makers are reporting, I do have Beholder faster. But we don't just do final time. Clearly you don't know what you are talking about.

There's confusion going on about your numbers for these two horses. Tom noted what I had posted yesterday. The quote from TFUS, and your quote, both on Twitter, stated 131. Too, TVG states you gave Beholder the highest figure of the year? I don't want to have shared information, here, that isn't correct. If I did so, I'm sorry, gentlemen.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Grits

There's confusion going on about your numbers for these two horses. Tom noted what I had posted yesterday. The quote from TFUS, and your quote, both on Twitter, stated 131. Too, TVG states you gave Beholder the highest figure of the year? I don't want to have shared information, here, that isn't correct. If I did so, I'm sorry, gentlemen.

I've said all along both ran 131 in there last starts. It is a "co-top" of 2015. I've attached an image showing both.

Keep in mind, if these horses were to meet int he Classic they would not show the same due to weight. Beholder would be picking up four pounds and thus show a lower figure, probably 129. American Pharoah would be staying the same as the Haskell and thus remain at 131. Users have the option to turn off weight adjustments if they choose.

[Robert Fischer]

Inner-outer path bias is one of those things where you will see a variety of opinions.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by cj

One thing I can assure you is that the names don't mean a damn thing when I make figures. On final time, which is what the other figure makers are reporting, I do have Beholder faster. But we don't just do final time. Clearly you don't know what you are talking about.

Perhaps you'd like to share your math then to show how you came to the conclusion that AP's Haskell was as good as Beholder's PC? And no, other figure makers don't look at only final time, but they don't seem to be as subjective as you because you're the only one who has his numbers as being highest/best going into the PC (and now co-highest).

At least I don't have Materiality as the fastest 3yo in American still...ROFL.

Apparently Souper Lucky is also a faster horse than American Pharoah. Tonalist too. And Constituation. And Lea! Commissioner, Race Day and Sir Quisqueyano are his equal. People must be making a killing betting against such a slow horse.

You think Beyer numbers determine who is "equal" or best? They do determine who raced faster on a given day over a given surface, and there's not really much to laugh at about that unless one's a novice and not understanding how Materiality or another horse can run a larger Beyer than AP.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Perhaps you'd like to share your math then to show how you came to the conclusion that AP's Haskell was as good as Beholder's PC? And no, other figure makers don't look at only final time, but they don't seem to be as subjective as you because you're the only one who has his numbers as being highest/best going into the PC (and now co-highest).



You think Beyer numbers determine who is "equal" or best? They do determine who raced faster on a given day over a given surface, and there's not really much to laugh at about that unless one's a novice and not understanding how Materiality or another horse can run a larger Beyer than AP.

Of course I'm not going to share my math. Other figure makers are mostly final time based, with some allowance for weight and ground loss in a few cases. But those like Equibase, Beyer, and BRIS are final time. I was just saying if you want to compare apples to apples, our final time figures are a better barometer. None of the others account for pace in an overall number.

What is the point of measuring speed if you can't use it to say which is faster? Sure, that isn't the be all and end all of handicapping, not even close. But anyone thinking that Materiality's best is faster than American Pharoah's best on any day on any track is delusional. When they faced each other Material couldn't warm him up, let alone compete with him.