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07-25-2015, 02:58 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,601
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Saratoga dirt bias ?
Perhaps....
Still waiting for a speed horse to find the winners circle.
It looks like the closers have an edge.
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07-25-2015, 03:36 PM
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#2
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by taxicab
Perhaps....
Still waiting for a speed horse to find the winners circle.
It looks like the closers have an edge.
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Give it time buddy...
race 1 ..horse ran 2nd all the way to win
race 4..horses 1 & 2 broke out but looks like the 6 1/2 furs done them in..
race 6 should better tell
mike
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07-25-2015, 03:53 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,601
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mikesal57
Give it time buddy...
race 1 ..horse ran 2nd all the way to win
race 4..horses 1 & 2 broke out but looks like the 6 1/2 furs done them in..
race 6 should better tell
mike
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My bad....I should of mentioned yesterday was included also.
In two days no horse on the lead turning for home has won.
Stalkers should be OK.
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07-25-2015, 03:57 PM
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#4
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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A good thread to start is how to determine a track bias.....
For me is to see where the first 2 horses at the 1st quarter end up...
and look at the qtr time
and then compare to other races
mike
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09-02-2016, 02:41 PM
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#5
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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Didn't want to start a new thread for it BUT I had the rail negative on 9/1.
Race 1 screamed minus rail to me.
Race 4 is the next dirt race. Let's see if it continues. I'll be betting it does.
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09-03-2016, 08:52 AM
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#6
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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I'm interested to see how the rail plays today. Saturdays tend to have a solid rail. Especially super Saturdays.
I saw at least a hint of a negative rail yesterday. Especially in race 1.
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09-03-2016, 10:18 AM
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#7
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Comparing with last year's results I do not detect any significant anti w2w bias in the SPA
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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09-03-2016, 12:07 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: LNN
Posts: 524
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I only look into track bias if things occur that don't make sense.
Trying to zero in and actively search for a bias on a daily basis will often lead you astray from good handicapping.
__________________
They didn't take your money...You paid for lessons
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09-03-2016, 12:12 PM
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#9
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DeltaLover
Comparing with last year's results I do not detect any significant anti w2w bias in the SPA
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Good info my friend but I'm not talking about the meet. Talking about the last 2 days.
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09-03-2016, 12:13 PM
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#10
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by deelo
I only look into track bias if things occur that don't make sense.
Trying to zero in and actively search for a bias on a daily basis will often lead you astray from good handicapping.
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And IMHO if you dont know how the track played everyday you are in deep trouble.
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09-03-2016, 01:24 PM
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#11
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,888
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Merry-go-round in the second - 13 shot holds off the heavy favorite.
No meaningful moves by anything.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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09-03-2016, 01:32 PM
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#12
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tom
Merry-go-round in the second - 13 shot holds off the heavy favorite.
No meaningful moves by anything.
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Just what I suspected, the old Saturday make the rail a highway move.
This is why I love the late Pick 5 idea. Gives you time to see how the track is playing.
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09-04-2016, 12:36 AM
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#13
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by EMD4ME
And IMHO if you dont know how the track played everyday you are in deep trouble.
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Sort of like running on the dead rail?
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09-04-2016, 09:40 AM
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#14
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
Sort of like running on the dead rail?
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Or a third rail on the subway line 
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09-06-2016, 09:26 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,625
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One thing I noticed over the weekend was that the maintenance crew wasn't particularly consistent about when they were watering the dirt surface. I saw an example of a couple of turf races between two dirt races and they didn't water for the next dirt race and I saw watering between two consecutive dirt races.
I'm sure they are trying to produce a consistent and safe surface, but when it's sunny the moisture content of the surface almost has to be changing from race to race.
I'm not smart enough to call a bias correctly after a single race all the time, but varying moisture content could account for days when the track seems to be playing a certain way for a few races and then suddenly changes or even changes twice on the same card.
I'm becoming way more sensitive to speed/closer advantages on the single race level than I used to be by watching races, looking at the field makeup, and looking at the race flow, but inside/outside biases are really risky to call based on individual races.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 09-06-2016 at 09:28 AM.
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