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Old 06-29-2015, 09:42 PM   #1
magwell
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Hillary Clinton

Chances of her becoming the President ?
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Old 06-30-2015, 01:29 AM   #2
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Hillary is currently even money or 11 to 10 offshore. This is down significantly from the holidays when she was -230 or better.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/...on-2016/winner

Personally, I think her chances are less than 10%, based on the economy unraveling within the year, and of course the hard sale of getting past her lying, bitchiness, and penchant for failure.

She's the Clinton without the charisma....

<DISCLAIMER> I am not a professional poltical predictor, nor do I play one on TV.....all opinions expressed herein are not to be considered financial advice, and any losses incurred are not the liability of the poster. As with any financial transaction (especially horse racing), there is a potential for loss. Please read the prospectus carefully. </DISCLAIMER>
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Old 06-30-2015, 09:55 AM   #3
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She at this point about 2/5 because the GOP is unlikely to nominate anyone who can beat her. Thinking that somebody like Cruz or Rubio or Walker or Carlson can beat her is just wishful thinking on the part of conservatives. At some point, the GOP has got to sit down and add up the votes of the various possible nominees against her. Something at this point they are unwilling to do. They are having too much fun bashing her. All that is doing is strengthening the resolve of her hard core supporters.
Today Christie gets into the race. It will be interesting to see how he does. He is one of the few republicans that have an outside chance of beating her. And I do see a path for him to get the nomination, but it requires a good deal of luck, a strong showing in New Hampshire and Jeb Bush falling flat on his face. Christie's time may have already come and gone. 2012 was his year. I think he had a good shot(50/50) at beating Obama then. A better shot than he has of beating Hillary. I give him about 35-40% chance of beating Hillary if he can get the nomination.
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Old 06-30-2015, 10:28 AM   #4
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I cringe at any of these possibilities.
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Old 06-30-2015, 10:47 AM   #5
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Hillary Supporters

Truer words never spoken

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Old 06-30-2015, 11:23 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Goren
She at this point about 2/5 because the GOP is unlikely to nominate anyone who can beat her. Thinking that somebody like Cruz or Rubio or Walker or Carlson can beat her is just wishful thinking on the part of conservatives. At some point, the GOP has got to sit down and add up the votes of the various possible nominees against her. Something at this point they are unwilling to do. They are having too much fun bashing her. All that is doing is strengthening the resolve of her hard core supporters.
Today Christie gets into the race. It will be interesting to see how he does. He is one of the few republicans that have an outside chance of beating her. And I do see a path for him to get the nomination, but it requires a good deal of luck, a strong showing in New Hampshire and Jeb Bush falling flat on his face. Christie's time may have already come and gone. 2012 was his year. I think he had a good shot(50/50) at beating Obama then. A better shot than he has of beating Hillary. I give him about 35-40% chance of beating Hillary if he can get the nomination.
I give Jeb and Rubio a shot at beating her. I don't see how Christie survives the primaries but I can see a slim but frightenly real chance of Santorum coming out with the nomination. My dream, however, is a Paul / Sanders general election. No matter who wins the country at least gets a long overdue injection of new ideology.
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Old 06-30-2015, 11:35 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Goren
She at this point about 2/5 because the GOP is unlikely to nominate anyone who can beat her. Thinking that somebody like Cruz or Rubio or Walker or Carlson can beat her is just wishful thinking on the part of conservatives. At some point, the GOP has got to sit down and add up the votes of the various possible nominees against her. Something at this point they are unwilling to do. They are having too much fun bashing her. All that is doing is strengthening the resolve of her hard core supporters.
.
Ted Cruz isn't going to be the nominee, so stop dreaming.

Yeah, Rubio isn't a threat...that's why her camp is most worried about him.
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Old 06-30-2015, 11:36 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by elysiantraveller
I give Jeb and Rubio a shot at beating her. I don't see how Christie survives the primaries but I can see a slim but frightenly real chance of Santorum coming out with the nomination. My dream, however, is a Paul / Sanders general election. No matter who wins the country at least gets a long overdue injection of new ideology.
Santorum is a good debater, but he won't be the nominee. Chris Christie? He's in the race? What a waste of time. Does he even have supporters anymore?
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Old 06-30-2015, 12:05 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
Santorum is a good debater, but he won't be the nominee. Chris Christie? He's in the race? What a waste of time. Does he even have supporters anymore?
Agreed he has been damaged goods with Republicans since Sandy. Should have waited another 4 or 8 if at all.
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Old 06-30-2015, 03:43 PM   #10
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It's so freakin' ridiculous that something like the Obama hug after Sandy or that even more ridiculous lane closure scandal supposedly negates Christie's chances.

Tell me why either of those two things means something beyond fodder for the press and internet chat rooms?

Saratoga Mike has been up Christie's giant ass (less giant now) since the beginning of time...so he should be the first to respond.
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Old 06-30-2015, 04:10 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
It's so freakin' ridiculous that something like the Obama hug after Sandy or that even more ridiculous lane closure scandal supposedly negates Christie's chances.

Tell me why either of those two things means something beyond fodder for the press and internet chat rooms?

Saratoga Mike has been up Christie's giant ass (less giant now) since the beginning of time...so he should be the first to respond.
Thanks for the recognition - I've been right about CC for a long time. I admit when I'm wrong - I said NY would never elect Hillary as their Senator in 2000 (idiotic call).

It wasn't Sandy and it wasn't the lane closure. He never had a shot.
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Old 06-30-2015, 04:11 PM   #12
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Why?
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Old 06-30-2015, 04:22 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Why?
1) He isn't presidential. Why would I make such a claim given the bar has been set so low in recent times? There's a certain innate coarseness to him, which serves him well as governor but isn't compatible with what voters want in a president.

2) There's no path to the White House for him. Support in Iowa? No way. Support in NH? A smidge. South Carolina? None. Florida? Yes, some. What does that look like? Right, Rudy's path to the WH (i.e., all-in on Florida).

3) Donors fleeing. Jeb entering the race was not a good thing for CC.

4) Lots of baggage - Romney people vetted him and said "no way" (Halpern).

5) At this point, he wouldn't even carry his own state against Hillary.
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Old 06-30-2015, 05:17 PM   #14
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Why?
2nd amendment problems for one thing
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Old 06-30-2015, 05:21 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
It's so freakin' ridiculous that something like the Obama hug after Sandy or that even more ridiculous lane closure scandal supposedly negates Christie's chances.
Ridiculous? Of course it is but it is the GOP we are talking about.
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