BELMONT Crunch Time...Your "final" thoughts and plays for the Last Jewel...

[LottaKash]

S

My take so far, is that nothing that anyone has said so far makes a very compelling case, other than the history of the Belmont, for any horse to beat AP at face PP value...

I am strictly an "Angle" player, and I still like the angle that AP has going for him...I liked him pre Derby, and the Preakness, and nothing that he has shown me so far, suggests that the Angle has met it's end yet......

The Angle is, "The Extended Win" (EXTW)....AP has shown in every single recent race that he hasn't really shown his best stuff yet....In each of the listed races shown, shows that he had captured the lead by the mid-stretch call, and extended that very lead to the wire...They weren't just good wins, they were extended wins....This is one of my pet angles, and the EXTW implies, for me, of better things to come for any horse that has it...I look for it incessantly..

Except for his Derby, where he was a total "mental wreck", where he had to overcome all that wasted pre-race and post parade energy expenditure, to still capture the win, even so, his other races suggest much more to come....I truly believe that is why VE, in the Derby, had to really get into him thru lane, he just needed a wake up call, to get AP to dig in and show his real class...And he still won it despite that pre race meltdown.. Imo a lesser horse would've closed up shop long before the wire after expending so much energy pre-race....He showed me much heart and bravery in that Derby win... And those attributes for me are signs of class and/or of better things to come..

The other races, he just did what he was supposed to do, which was to win, with ease...Not as in a big win, but an "extended win"...

I know others, with good reason, have stated that his end races wern't very fast, but I look at it like this, he just did what he needed to do to win...But, in his listed running lines for all to see, we notice that he rose to each and every occasion by extending his lead thru the lane to the wire, and that is all that he needed to do in each race instance...I don't think that I need any further proof that there is more to this horse and in his tank based on his EXTWs...I don't think that we have seen this horse's best yet...I am banking on it...

Since AP will obviously be a prohibitive favorite in the win slot, I will: Wager a straight one way exacta with "AP on top of "Frosted", and a smaller ex-box with the two (to save the big bet if possible)



Good Luck to all in the last Jewel of the TC...

[Some_One]

Still playing against AP, the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced he's a miler, his game is to blast out and run everyone into submission. In the Derby he did rate, no doubt, but had to work hard in the lane to get past Firing Line and Dortmund and was lucky Mat. and Frosted where shuffled back early (they both got past AP in the gallopout). Now on Sat AP will be asked to rate even more and I don't think there will be any explosion of speed when asked at the top of the stretch like many are expecting.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Some_One

Still playing against AP, the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced he's a miler, his game is to blast out and run everyone into submission. In the Derby he did rate, no doubt, but had to work hard in the lane to get past Firing Line and Dortmund and was lucky Mat. and Frosted where shuffled back early (they both got past AP in the gallopout). Now on Sat AP will be asked to rate even more and I don't think there will be any explosion of speed when asked at the top of the stretch like many are expecting.

i promise you, Baffert isn't putting out a short horse, i don't see to many of his that can't go the distance that he is in, i don't think that out of all the horses he has with a lead in the stretch that more than 3% of them get passed in the lane even after being terrorized early in the race.

so if you want to fight city hall here, the windows will be open early

[depalma113]

American Pharoah by daylight.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Stranger things have happened in this particular race - especially when the favorite looks downright unbeatable.

I was there for the wedding, so I might as well attend the funeral. Beefas knows what I'm talking about.

[beefas]

Yes sir!,,

[DeltaLover]

My main opinions are that AP will win the race, while Materiality will be a clear underlay. I will try AP on top of Madefromlucky and Frosted..

Here you can read more

[jettroofer]

I don't see any other scenario than AP going out front with a clear lead. I think he holds that lead into the last turn. If Materiality is going to beat him, he will have to be close up and have more legs in the stretch. That's what I am having a hard time predicting. My gut tells me AP will run Materiality into the ground and will have to outlast. frosted and Keen Ice late. If he wins, it will be gate to wire. If Materiality can hang with him, it will be an exciting stretch run with those two and Frosted barreling up on them. I don't give Tale of Verve much shot and Aside from the 'angles', Framento should not be a threat. MFL could be a factor as he looked like he could get get more at the end of the Peter Pan but he singling too have to improve even more to beat these. Moobs is still my wild card. I think he is everyone's wild card. I've bet against AP in every race thus far. I will key him heavily on Saturday with a few backup meltdown bets in case the sky falls. My logical money will be played around AP and Frosted. I think Frosted has a real chance of winning this Belmont. Especially if Materiality tries to run AP out of it.

[Redboard]

AP is going to hit the board, unless there’s some kind of trouble such as CC experienced last year. Eight out of that 12 that failed, came in 2nd or 3rd and the other four had legitimate excuses.

Dick Jerardi is picking Materiality:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/...Crown_bid.html

Andy Beyer hedging and giving out my exacta box:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports...44e_story.html

That’s exactly the way I’m thinking. Materiality to win, Exacta box with the other three contenders, in addition, key AP 2nd around the other chalk for the tri, as I mentioned in the other thread.

[f2tornado]

It's going boil down to if AP gets loose on the lead. If the other jockeys let him get too far ahead the race might be over at the mile pole. I do fully expect AP to be on the lead at 9F but decelerating rapidly over the last 3F. Pace parameters by Raman and others suggest AP could run the slowest final quarter in the race. It's just a matter of how far ahead he will be for whether or not he will be caught at the end. If Frosted or any other horse is within 4 lengths of him with 2F to go then I expect the favorite to be defeated.

[racko]

and hope AP runs out.

[elhelmete]

I have a nagging but irrational attraction to Keen Ice.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by elhelmete

I have a nagging but irrational attraction to Keen Ice.

Hunch play! Go for it!

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by racko

and hope AP runs out.

You think there will be a bridgejumper?

[five-eighths]

I think Materiality will be stuck doing the dirty work and either Frosted or Madefromlucky will scoop out the win if AP cannot hold on. Not sure if any of the closers will hit the board. I think the post will compromise Mubta's chances.