Solid race on another solid card at Santa Anita filled with competitive state bred stakes races.
This one is for 4YO's and older going a mile on the dirt.
Solid Wager: Miller/Espinoza are solid connections hitting at 27% their last 15 together and hitting the board 47% of the time. However, this horse has recently been whipped his last 2 out against lesser competition. Victor is a huge upgrade, and is 2 for 3 on him in his last 3 efforts on his back. Could be a bomber, and I have to include on exotics.
Spirit Rules: Looks to fit in these conditions, but doesn't. Simply can't see him winning, and easily see him finishing up the track. Should add some speed, and won't be lone speed or even best speed. ML at 6/1 is wrong. Pass.
Toledo Eddie: Loves this track, loves this distance, loves the dirt at Santa Anita. Recent bullet and works suggest he is ready. Concern is Dollase isn't exactly setting the world on fire, and Toledo Eddie may need this one before a peak effort. 6/1 is reasonable, but he may be a race away. Tough call here.
Magic Mark: Underrated jockey with an underrated trainer on a horse that loves the distance and track and has been more than competitive with a couple of the better horses in here. I'll be tote watching this one heavily.
Short Heat Wave: Lightly raced, but trainer and jockey challenged while also being class challenged. Pass.
Soi Phet: This Graded Stakes veteran will likely get a lot of play. I'm completely crossing this one off as he returns from a G1 race in Japan last December and likely is looking for a race to get a one under his belt for something better in the future. He isn't exactly an SA lover either although the distance has been kind.
Poshsky: One would think that Miller and Trujillo, together, would hit at a better clip than they do. Either way, this horse has to be taken seriously as he changes from turf to dirt, adds blinkers, and gets back to a distance he finished a solid 2nd and is 2 for 3 hitting the board on the surface. His career earnings and overall board numbers aren't that impressive in this field, but his recent races suggest a likely big time effort could be realistic.
Rousing Sermon: The King and Bejarano. The connections don't get better in this race. Unfortunately, I see a horse on the decline as a 6YO. A former Graded Stakes veteran now finds himself in a State Bred stakes race. No doubt he has shown the ability to romp over this field in year's past, but those are year's past. I have to completely pass.
Motown Men: Here we find a horse on the improve. Coming in off a step up to a G3 in which he ran fairly well. The likely chalk rolls in off a 6F bullet work of 1:11.4, and will likely be a part of the early speed.
Joy Boy: I have to laugh. I was at Fonner Park in Grand Island, NE when I was on this guy that rolled home in the Gus Fonner at 2/1. This horse has had many travels, and is obviously travelling for paychecks if and where they can find them. Connections have done pretty well at doing just that. However, I find this one in a bit too tough here. The ML of 4/1 is simply wrong. No, not wrong, horrid.
WP:
EX: /
Tri: /
/
Likely to add more. Looks like a solid wagering race with some overrated horses.
