Who will beat Palace Malice tomorrow? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

letswastemoney · 05-09-2015, 10:45 PM

My initial thought is Stallwalkin Dude. Your thoughts?

Some_One · 05-09-2015, 10:50 PM

For a sprint race, a lot of horses that prefer to be in the rear half early,

might be able to steal it early.

Lemon Drop Husker · 05-09-2015, 11:37 PM

Sprint specialists, and solid sprinters, in Palace and Clearly Now have the advantage over PM.

PM is coming back from a long layoff in a race distance he simply isn't built to run all that well and hasn't ran since being a Maiden 3 years ago.

Would be extremely impressive if PM could put away Palace and Clearly Now at their specialty coming back from such a layoff.

Interesting race for PM to be in, but I'm sure it is more calendar related than anything after the scratch in the Westchester. He has to get something in before the Met Mile.

MJC922 · 05-10-2015, 07:46 AM

IMO edge goes to Palace (without the malice) he has the race under his belt after the freshening and a couple of Grade I caliber numbers at 6f prior to that.

davew · 05-10-2015, 11:09 AM

Winning this would not seem to a main goal

Palace Malice has tons of back class at more distance
looks to me like a tightener for something bigger

the rest of the field has a few that could beat him

a possible bridgejumper gone bad race

DeltaLover · 05-10-2015, 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

My initial thought is Stallwalkin Dude. Your thoughts?

I do not know if he is going to beat him, but based on my automated models,

Palace is clearly the overlay in this race and the one where my money is going to be...

bello · 05-10-2015, 01:09 PM

Palace scratched

Ocala Mike · 05-10-2015, 02:01 PM

DOUBLEDOWN AGAIN the value play in gimmicks and, possibly, on top.

raybo · 05-10-2015, 03:09 PM

With 1,2, and 6 scratched, here are my top 3 (PM is ranked 4th):

7 CLEARLY NOW (P 1) -------------577.2
1A STALLWALKIN' DUDE (S 2)----562.7
4 DOUBLEDOWN AGAIN (P 0)----557.4

raybo · 05-10-2015, 03:33 PM

Ignore the previous post, the 2 is not scratched. The reason PM ranked so low in that one is that he has no sprint races in his last 10 PPs, so I had no qualified velocities to use for him. If I use figures instead, and with 1,3 and 6 scratched, the rankings are:

5 PALACE MALICE (P 1)---384.1
7 CLEARLY NOW (P 1)-----356.1
2 PIQUANT (P 5)-----------347.2

Note: These rankings are not from the regular Black Box program rankings, but something else I am working on with user weighted factors.

PM is in this race for conditioning, so I have doubts that he will run hard if he needs to.

lamboguy · 05-10-2015, 04:08 PM

PALACE MALACE was scratched from the Westchester because of a stone bruise.

i am sure his foot is ok today

Robert Fischer · 05-10-2015, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

My initial thought is Stallwalkin Dude. Your thoughts?

I don't know.

Palace Malice will win unless he has declined. I don't know Palace Malice's current form.

Piquant is the best of the rest.
Doubledown Again and Stalwalking Dude are fairly close after that. Stallwalkin Dude is a better horse, but he lacks tactical speed and is going to depend upon the pace collapsing. Stallwalkin Dude will need Brian Lynch and Javier Castellano to really force the issue with Clearly Now trying to be the unexpected pace. I don't see that happening.

Horses like Piquant and DoubleDown Again will probably set a moderate pace(because they aren't all-out speed, and because they know Johnny V is sitting on a Heavy Favorite) and that will only play to the favor of Palace Malice who will blow them away when the time is right if he is the same horse.

raybo · 05-10-2015, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I don't know.

Palace Malice will win unless he has declined. I don't know Palace Malice's current form.

Neither does anyone else, regarding racing condition. His trainer may say he's ready to race, but even he doesn't know for sure, until he races.

If he doesn't get the race given to him, he may well need this race, and maybe another one, before he gets back to the horse we all knew, if he ever does.

Robert Fischer · 05-10-2015, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raybo

Neither does anyone else, regarding racing condition. His trainer may say he's ready to race, but even he doesn't know for sure, until he races.

If he doesn't get the race given to him, he may well need this race, and maybe another one, before he gets back to the horse we all knew, if he ever does.

yea, and anecdotally, Pletcher seems to have a mixed bag with his 'brilliant' returnees.

Guys who have blazed amazing pace figures and flashy moves, haven't always come back from layoffs the same.

Tough to know.

In such a scenario, I think Piquant is a nice ml price considering he's my 2nd ranked horse in here, and Double Down Again is my alternative.

Robert Fischer · 05-10-2015, 04:27 PM

did a small double upgrade w/ piquant