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05-02-2015, 10:17 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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American Pharoah to win
American Pharoah  The only thing missing from this horse is wings. He simply towers over this field. Beyer Average is top 5. Multiple Grade One winner and only a couple of those have failed to hit the board since 2003. An absolute workout machine that carries that effort into the afternoons. Last work was spectacular and the second best that day, a full 1.2 seconds slower, just easily won the Oaks. In a 10 horse field he is even money or less, but we get an extra 10 or so also rans in this and his odds balloon. Deserving Favorite, If the jock doesn't fall off, your winner.
Upstart  I don't know he can beat American Pharoah, in fact I doubt any horse in this race is good enough to beat him, but I've never seen a bad race from this guy, so you never know. He's tops in the Beyer Average, and shouldn't have to contest the pace in this one. Key stat says he should finish in the top 4.
Dortmund  Will take them a long way around the track and has turned foes away in the stretch before, but those foes are not the beast in his stable. Multiple Grade One Winner which as I said before is a key stat in this race. Beyer Average top 5. Should be there for a piece. If he catches a speed favoring track could pull it off.
Materiality  Late Pletcher bloomer should sit second behind Dortmund most of the way. Beyer Average Top 5. Don't think he's good enough to get the win, but filling out the exotics is not out of the question.
Firing Line  ran head to head with Dortmund, but just couldn't beat him. Beyer Average top 5. Went out of town to demolish an allowance posing as a Graded Stakes race. Has distance questions, but will be going for the lead at some point. Could it be at the wire? Probably not. Minor piece at best.
Bolo  Churchill is kind to turf horses running on the dirt and this one seems to really like it. Was no match for Dortmund either time he faced him and nothing suggests he is going to turn the tables this time. Minor piece at best.
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05-02-2015, 10:29 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,534
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according to regal bloodlines, his momma's gramma, sisters pappy lacks stamina....and therefor cannot finish, or be one of the top 10..but having this new strain of wings makes up for this imo.
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05-02-2015, 10:40 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18,962
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
according to regal bloodlines, his momma's gramma, sisters pappy lacks stamina....and therefor cannot finish, or be one of the top 10..but having this new strain of wings makes up for this imo.
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Really? The Arkansas Derby finish must have been an illusion then. 
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05-02-2015, 10:48 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,898
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Greyfox
Really? The Arkansas Derby finish must have been an illusion then. |
Great looking but what was he running against?
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05-02-2015, 10:57 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 315
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Relwob Owner
Great looking but what was he running against?
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Not the horses fault who was loaded into the gate with him. Maybe the other good horses didn't want to face AP. Plus, he did what he was supposed to do and crushed the field he was put in against.
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05-02-2015, 11:01 AM
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#6
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,772
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AP will be exposed late, when it counts...my opinion of course...others may vary... 
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05-02-2015, 11:03 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,898
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by razorback5
Not the horses fault who was loaded into the gate with him. Maybe the other good horses didn't want to face AP. Plus, he did what he was supposed to do and crushed the field he was put in against.
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Of course it isn't his fault but pretty basic to look at who a horse ran against and what kind of trip he had. He faced bad horses and had a perfect trip so of course he looked good. Can he win? Of course, but at the odds he will be at, a nice bet against IMO.
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05-02-2015, 11:15 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,534
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the people that knock AP have pretty lame reasoning to do so.
just think if you handicapped every race based on pedigree and ignored form and body of work....this is their only outlet to justify any creedence, and even so,..it's a major lol and reach
sure AP might not win, it's ahorse race...but it will have little to do w/ pedigree in this spot.
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05-02-2015, 11:16 AM
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#9
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,772
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
the people that knock AP have pretty lame reasoning to do so.
just think if you handicapped every race based on pedigree and ignored form and body of work....this is their only outlet to justify any creedence, and even so,..it's a major lol and reach
sure AP might not win, it's ahorse race...but it will have little to do w/ pedigree in this spot.
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I don't base my comments on pedigree. I base it on pace numbers.
Other than Mr. Z, American Pharoah has the WORST late rating of the ENTIRE FIELD (according to TimeFormUS)
No way am I betting (to win) on a horse in the Derby (the favorite no less) sporting that kind of feature on his resume.
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 05-02-2015 at 11:22 AM.
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05-02-2015, 11:21 AM
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#10
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,772
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If AP wins, that means he's a freak who's found another level...if AP wins, he'll win the Triple Crown.
These are mighty big ifs I'm not willing to wager money on at such a low price.
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05-02-2015, 11:22 AM
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#11
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,983
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
AP will be exposed late, when it counts...my opinion of course...others may vary... |
I think he will be exposed early.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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05-02-2015, 11:28 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18,962
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tom
I think he will be exposed early.
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...and expose others late. 
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05-02-2015, 11:29 AM
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#13
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,310
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
according to regal bloodlines, his momma's gramma, sisters pappy lacks stamina....and therefor cannot finish, or be one of the top 10..but having this new strain of wings makes up for this imo.
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Do the horses know about this?
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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05-02-2015, 11:34 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,534
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF
Do the horses know about this?
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know abut what? the wings or that his great, great, great gammah excelled at only a going a mile?
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05-02-2015, 06:51 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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Boom Baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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