Kentucky Derby 2015 Contenders / Value Line / Analysis

[PaceAdvantage]

Can be found on the home page, for what it's worth (and we'll know what it's worth at the end of the race).

http://www.paceadvantage.com

[overthehill]

I think you are nuts to think that AP should be 7-1 if that is your value line.
There is ample evidence out there to say that he is the best of US horses.
1. As a two year old he pretty much destroyed texas red who came back to demolish the field in the breeders cup.
2. In the Arkansas Derby he blew away the field in what amounted to a work out. Mr Z was in that race and Dortmund barely got by him a couple of races back
3. That Arkansas Derby where AP ran effortlessly reminding me of a couple of races that Spectacular ran later in his three year old career was just about as fast as anything dortmund has run.

I think that AP is at least twice as likely to win the race as Dortmund. I think the only way Dortmund wins is if runs a significantly better race than anything hes run to date, and/or AP steps on a nail.
however i agree with you and dont like a short price in a big field so I have boxed several horses in exactas with my key horse, but my largest exacta is with ap. and i have played a triple with ap on top my key for second and all for third, as a triple box of ap dortmund and my key.

[PaceAdvantage]

Dude, he's my second choice...relax...

On the TimeForm numbers, AP's late number is relatively WEAK...Dortmund's isn't too hot either, but AP's is weaker.

That's a red flag to me...I think Dortmund is a tad faster overall, faster early, and faster late than AP...thus the difference in their lines.

I could be way off, and probably am, but doing things this way has served me well in these type of big-time races, and I have the posts on this board made before the race to back up my claim, as others can attest.

[PaceAdvantage]

PS. I have dropped Mr. Z from my list of contenders. I also ticked Dortmund up to 3-1 on my value line

[FantasticDan]

Regardless of being 7 years old, retired, and not even entered, I still believe Shackleford will give a very good accounting of himself in today's 141st Kentucky Derby, and should not be ignored...

[PaceAdvantage]

I really liked Shackleford...and he just had a cool name to say

[Jingle]

Great picks Mike. Congrats.

[tucker6]

Yes, great selections. Maybe the best you've done in a few years.

[iceknight]

Good analysis!
"Once you get past Dortmund, American Pharoah and Firing Line, in my opinion, the reward won't be worth the risk, even if some of my lesser contenders go off above their value line."

[depalma113]

Hope you hit that box button in the exotics

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by tucker6

Yes, great selections. Maybe the best you've done in a few years.

Ouch!

[JustRalph]

Good work Mike 👍

You know you have always been my hero

[Exotic1]

Good call, PA.

Never easy connecting on a three horse triple box in the big races. You had Firing Line as the "price" horse to key around.

[kingfin66]

Originally Posted by tucker6

Yes, great selections. Maybe the best you've done in a few years.

You forgot the Breeder's Cup. He wad very good as he caught some big prices.