Tomlinson Turf and Wet Track Numbers

[1retired]

TOMLINSON NUMBERS

TURF
The DRF says “This number rates a horse’s chances for success racing on the turf based on his breeding. When a horse’s turf rating is 280 or higher, it merits further consideration as a horse who could perform particularly well over a grass surface. This number can be particularly helpful the first couple of times over the turf, before the horse’s preference for the turf is otherwise known. Note: in some cases you will see an asterisk next to a Tomlinson turf rating. The asterisk means there has been a limited sample, in terms of offspring of the particular sire running over the surface in question”.

I have some recent examples of the use of this number to produce a winner as follows.

Bravo Charlie won the 5th at Gulfstream on Jan 3 of this year. It was a MSW3 at 1 Mile on the Turf. He had had two previous races, both on the dirt. The horse was coming off a short layoff of 34 days. In his most recent race at 1 1/16 at CD, he had finished 2nd by 3 lengths. He had a Tomlinson Turf Number of 318 and won at odds of 14.8 to1.

Slope won the 3rd at Fairgrounds on Jan 3 of this year. It was a 30000MdnClmg at About 1 Mile on the Turf. He had only one race back in Sept of the previous year on the turf where he finished 8th by 12 lengths out of 12 horses. He had decent works including a 3F bullet workout 3 days prior to the race. He had a Tomlinson Turf Number of 324 and won at odds of 10.7 to 1.

Commander King won the 1st at Santa Anita on Feb 28. It was a MSW at 1 1/8 on the Turf. He was coming off a layoff having run his first race in October in a 6F 35000 Mdn Clmg dirt race where he finished 5th by 8 lengths. He had decent works in the interim. He had a Tomlinson Turf Number of 320 and won at odds of 20.6 to 1.

Question: Is the Tomlinson Turf number cutoff number of 280 about right, too low or too high IN YOUR PRACTICAL EXPERIENCE in producing FTS or 2nd time starter winners on the turf?

TOMLINSON WET TRACK NUMBER
THE DRF SAYS “This number rates a horse’s chances for success on a wet track based on his breeding. When a horse’s mud rating is 320 or higher, it merits further consideration as a horse who could perform particularly well over a wet racetrack. This number can be particularly helpful the first couple of times over a wet surface, before the horse’s preference for the surface is otherwise known.

I don’t have any recent or old examples of winners that were obtained using these numbers and I have no practical experience with using these numbers as part of my handicapping.

Question: Is the Tomlinson Wet Track cutoff number of 320 about right, too low or too high IN YOUR PRACTICAL EXPERIENCE in producing FTS or 2nd time starter winners on wet tracks?

The reason I am asking the question is that I am considering adding these numbers or the more appropriate numbers to my positive form factor lists and to track this idea as a subroutine that might yield a profit.


I use the BRIS and Equibase results charts to track this data and I have few actual DRFs. Can anyone tell me the Tomlinson Turf numbers for each of the following 3 winning FTSs or 2nd time starters on the turf so I can add to the database:

3/21 5th at TAM, Minimambo
3/21 9th at GP, Canadian Flyer
325 10th atGP, Happy's Twins

Is anyone else trying to use the Tomlinson Turf Numbers for FTS or 2nd time starters on the turf? If so, what has your experience been?

1retired

[thaskalos]

I have tried to incorporate the Tomlinson numbers into my turf handicapping...and I have been totally unimpressed by the results. I also feel that the 280 point barometer is way too low...because it often encompasses almost all the horses in the field. And I feel that the three turf winners that you mention in your post mean nothing without including the Tomlinson numbers of the rest of the horses in the field. Without the rest of the numbers...how can we tell where those three winners ranked relative to the rest of the field?

[Ocala Mike]

I was under the impression that Lee Tomlinson passed away a few years back, and I was not aware that the numbers were still being produced. Who is actually making the figures now? Presumably, they decided to keep his name in doing so, right?

[Johnny V]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

I was under the impression that Lee Tomlinson passed away a few years back, and I was not aware that the numbers were still being produced. Who is actually making the figures now? Presumably, they decided to keep his name in doing so, right?

Tomlinson passed away in 2008. His real name was Artie Kaufman.

[Capper Al]

Are you limiting your use of the numbers to horses with 3 starts or less? Two starts or less might even be better.

[Prytanis]

Where would someone find those numbers?
I can't find them in the form.

[Kash$]

BrooklynCowboy converts them into Beyer speed figure

2 hours ago
@DamianSasso There used to be a Tomlinson book that killed it before he sold the rights to the Form for a pretty penny. They are computed ..

2 hours ago
@DamianSasso ...using various aspects of the breeding. Over the years, I've developed a way to convert them into Beyer speed figures.


Using various aspects of the breeding....BrooklynCowboy developed a way to convert them into Beyer speed figures.

Would love to know he does this.

[arw629]

Originally Posted by Prytanis

Where would someone find those numbers?
I can't find them in the form.

The Thomlinson numbers are listed on drf forms in the career stats box in the top right.....it's the number in parentheses ......there is usually a rating for off tracks, either turf or dirt pending on what is being run that day, and usually the distance to be traveled that day I believe.....I tend to use these numbers to eliminate potential winners opposed to finding a winner

[Prytanis]

Originally Posted by arw629

The Thomlinson numbers are listed on drf forms in the career stats box in the top right.....it's the number in parentheses ......there is usually a rating for off tracks, either turf or dirt pending on what is being run that day, and usually the distance to be traveled that day I believe.....I tend to use these numbers to eliminate potential winners opposed to finding a winner

Thanks.

[Valuist]

280 is definitely too low. Just doesn't eliminate enough horses. I'd say at least 325 for turf.

I've never been a huge believer in off track breeding because each surface is different when sloppy. Some think that all sloppy tracks equate to speed, and that is not the case.

[1st time lasix]

I had dinner with him in Las Vegas at a DRF expo event. A gracious gentleman. He said that with young horses that he added the turf number with the distance number together and was looking for "seven hundred horses" Since that evening....I have always done it that way to try not to toss a potential 'surprise' in a baby race.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by 1st time lasix

I had dinner with him in Las Vegas at a DRF expo event. A gracious gentleman. He said that with young horses that he added the turf number with the distance number together and was looking for "seven hundred horses" Since that evening....I have always done it that way to try not to toss a potential 'surprise' in a baby race.

So, how has that "baby race-700" angle worked out for you?