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03-02-2015, 08:24 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Tucson, AZ
Posts: 187
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Minimum and maximum time between races?
Hi all,
If you had to pick a hard couple of numbers, perhaps based on distance and/or other arguably important factors, what is the minimum time you'd like to see between races? What's the maximum time before you'd call it a "layoff"?
As an example, I'd like to see a horse with at least 7 days since the last race, and no more than 42.
I'd like to hear other people's thoughts.
Thanks.
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http://www.HandicapperPlus.com
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03-02-2015, 08:28 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,570
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10 days minimum, and 30 days maximum.
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"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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03-02-2015, 08:35 PM
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#3
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonyMLake
Hi all,
If you had to pick a hard couple of numbers, perhaps based on distance and/or other arguably important factors, what is the minimum time you'd like to see between races? What's the maximum time before you'd call it a "layoff"?
As an example, I'd like to see a horse with at least 7 days since the last race, and no more than 42.
I'd like to hear other people's thoughts.
Thanks.
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In this exrtract from my notes you can read some of my views about recency:
http://themindofagambler.com/horse_betting_recency.pdf
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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03-02-2015, 08:46 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,569
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Varies.....10 days and 30 days might be good guidelines,
but you will see horses winning outside those parameters.
That being said, if you passed betting on horses who rested
above, or below, those numbers, you would likely save money.
The only exception I might point out is where a horse is a proven
winner, or top performer, off an extended layoff. The horse should
have displayed significantly improved form after a long rest at least
twice in it's career. Some horses respond to time off, and if you can
spot a "layoff lover" like this, sometimes you can catch a nice mutuel.
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03-03-2015, 01:06 AM
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#5
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Keep in mind that days that intertwine in between meets are also a factor. For example, if a horse who ran in December at Late Nov at Mountaineer and then didnt race until opening week of the Mountain meet in March, i would give that horse much more leeway than i would if a horse was missing 90 days from January to April at Aqueduct.
Days matter within the context of the situation, knowing your horse, the type of horse (graded horse or claimer) when meets end, etc.
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03-03-2015, 02:42 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: MILWAUKEE
Posts: 5,285
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I prefer at least 10 days between races. Less than that,... it depends on how I feel about the trainer.
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Have you ever noticed that those who do not have a pot to piss in nor a window to throw it out of always seem to know how to handle the money of those who do.
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03-03-2015, 06:33 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,772
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the biggest factor of horses being able to run with days off is the lasix and the other drugs that go into horses in preparation for races these days. no doubt the lasix helps the horse run faster, but i don't think its that great on his insides.
this is a different era in horse racing today, years ago the horses that ran every 3-5 days were better than the ones that needed 10 days off to run. back then racing was a game of stamina and perseverance. today its all about speed
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03-03-2015, 07:03 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,545
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I like to look at the individual horse's prior spacing and efforts to get a feel for what might be best for that horse. Some horses these days don't appear to be robust enough to handle short rest. Some will fire their best efforts when off for 6 weeks lets say and even though next out they might regress only mildly and still win I generally don't want that same horse coming back on two weeks rest after an effort. I'm of the opinion that some horses will protect themselves when on short rest and take the 'week off' throwing in a non-effort. All of this may even have a seasonal component to it, might even have an age / sex component to it. Spacing is highly underestimated area of study IMO. Maybe I tend to overrate it but factors that generically mean nothing when looked at from afar but then mean a lot only sometimes are exactly where I believe the money is.
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03-03-2015, 07:22 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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10 days minimum and max varies by race type. A graded race max might be 60 days, while a claimer 30 days.
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03-03-2015, 07:26 AM
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#10
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,890
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Research by Dave Schwartz and Ken Massa (independently) clearly show horse off 30-60 days are not at all disadvantaged.
My own studies on Gr1 and Gr2 races show 90 days off is absolutely no concern.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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03-03-2015, 01:54 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,787
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
the biggest factor of horses being able to run with days off is the lasix and the other drugs that go into horses in preparation for races these days. no doubt the lasix helps the horse run faster, but i don't think its that great on his insides.
this is a different era in horse racing today, years ago the horses that ran every 3-5 days were better than the ones that needed 10 days off to run. back then racing was a game of stamina and perseverance. today its all about speed
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Agree on all counts.
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03-03-2015, 02:10 PM
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#12
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capper Al
10 days minimum and max varies by race type. A graded race max might be 60 days, while a claimer 30 days.
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I agree with higher caliber horses of 60 days, and my "expiration" time from noted replay race is 35 days for claimers and maiden races.....
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03-03-2015, 02:41 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Research by Dave Schwartz and Ken Massa (independently) clearly show horse off 30-60 days are not at all disadvantaged.
My own studies on Gr1 and Gr2 races show 90 days off is absolutely no concern.
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I didn't make a study of Gr1 and Gr2. Thanks for the info.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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03-03-2015, 02:42 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
I agree with higher caliber horses of 60 days, and my "expiration" time from noted replay race is 35 days for claimers and maiden races.....
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I lump maidens and claimers together here also.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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03-03-2015, 04:49 PM
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#15
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonyMLake
Hi all,
If you had to pick a hard couple of numbers, perhaps based on distance and/or other arguably important factors, what is the minimum time you'd like to see between races? What's the maximum time before you'd call it a "layoff"?
As an example, I'd like to see a horse with at least 7 days since the last race, and no more than 42.
I'd like to hear other people's thoughts.
Thanks.
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I'd probably consider 60 days off before considering the time as a "layoff" from the horse's regular racing schedule.
What does DRF and BRIS consider layoff time periods?
It's noted in their pp's with an underline, I forget.
I would think you and others have a database to determine a horse's regular racing schedule. Years ago, I looked at average time off for horses winning and their last race and if I remember correctly, it was between 3 and 4 weeks.
I'm curious how that compares to someone else's database results?
Last edited by whodoyoulike; 03-03-2015 at 04:52 PM.
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