Oddsing the Preakness

[Valuist]

I know the morning line is out. If I was booking it, here's the numbers I'd put out:

Smarty Jones 9-5
Lion Heart 4-1
Rock Hard Ten 5-1
Imperialism 6-1
The Cliffs Edge 7-1
Borrego 10-1
Eddington 15-1
Sir Shackelton 25-1
Song of the Sword 30-1
Water Cannon 50-1
Little Math Man 50-1

The Preakness ml odds are much more accurate than the Derby ml was.

[sq764]

I think Little Math Man is better than most people think.. Not good enough to win, but not 50-1

[cj]

I'll try:

This is my betting line. If a horse is not a contender in my opinion, he doesn't get a line.

PP	Horse		Fair	Bet
1	Lion Heart	3-1	9-2
4	TheCliff'sEdge	9-1	14-1
7	Smarty Jones	7-2	5-1
10	Rock Hard Ten	7-1	11-1

Here is my line:

Smarty Jones 1.8/1 (9/5)
Lion Heart 2.7/1 (5/2)
The Cliff's Edge 10/1
Eddington 10/1
Imperialism 19/1
Rock Hard Ten 24/1
Little Matth Man 32/1
Song of the Sword 32/1
Sir Shackelton 32/1
Borrego 49/1
Water Cannon 49/1

CAJ

[JustMissed]

I'm surprised you marked Imperialism so low.

The morning line is 5/1.

With this short field, he could get a good trip and nip SJ at the wire.

Wasn't it the year before last that a local closer took the win?

JM

[Valuist]

Magic Weisner was the local closer in 2002 but he finished 2nd, not 1st. But it did cause for big exacta and tri payoffs.

The more I look, I think Rock Hard Ten could be overbet. I don't like his post at all, and he still hasn't won at 1 1/8 miles. I think the sleeper in the race is Borrego. He's already run big against Smarty Jones once before. And he should save ground on that first turn.

[andicap]

Cliff's Edge was scratched. Anyone want to redo their lines??

CJ, I agree, no contender, no line. I love these people who say
Glue Factory was 12-1 and should be bet at 25-1. How they hell can you tell if a horse has an 8% chance of winning (12-1) or a 6% chance? (15-1)

[kenwoodallpromos]

I like M/Ls like your that do not just throw in round #'s.

[cj]

Originally posted by andicap
Cliff's Edge was scratched. Anyone want to redo their lines??

PP	Horse		Fair	Bet
1	Lion Heart	5-2	4-1
7	Smarty Jones	3-1	9-2
10	Rock Hard Ten	6-1	9-1

I may be a bit high on RHT, I just used his best number. He can probably improve on that. I'd consider betting him at 6-1. I just don't think any of these will be overlays, and I can't see anyone else winning. Doesn't really matter, Frank won't let me bet anyway.

[Valuist]

If you make wagers other than win wagers, you really need to make a line on all the horses. A horse maybe should be 15-1 and not a real win contender but a definite candidate to hit the board.

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by Valuist
If you make wagers other than win wagers, you really need to make a line on all the horses. A horse maybe should be 15-1 and not a real win contender but a definite candidate to hit the board.

Good point-I don't make a line anymore, just rank 'em A,B,C,etc. but your are right on-how many good trifecta plays been spoiled because we leave a marginal contender out of the third slot.

JM

[JustMissed]

You got me to thinking.

If you like a higher odds horse to win tommorrow, a $1 tri like an
e/ab/all, might pay pretty good.

Thanks,

JM

[wanderius_thrax]

i must be the only one that thinks sir shackleton is going to do something repectable-

my probably nowheres near to "fair" odds line, but here it is anyway. i rounded these off so it's not exactly 100%

Lion Heart 7-2
Borrego 13-1
Little Matth Man 75-1
Song of the Sword 14-1
Sir Shackleton 8-1
Smarty Jones 7-2
Imperialism 12-1
Eddington 12-1
Rock Hard Ten 6-1
Water Cannon 85-1
(5 wins in a row though? saving his best effort til now? who knows)

[Valuist]

Just Missed-

Judging from those probable double payoffs, there could be some interesting tri payouts. SMarty may end up being 1-1 and I've just seen too many of these "locks" go down in flames to get caught up in him at 1-1. I guess you could key him in a tri but you'd better hope that the 2nd and 3rd choices, Lion Heart and Rock Hard Ten are both off the board. While both LH and RHT are more likely win candidates than Borrego or even a Song of the Sword, I wouldn't be surprised to see those 2 or another price shot getting into the 2nd thru 4th slots.

And if Smarty is off the board?? There will be a massive tri and super. Probably won't happen but is he really unbeatable? Did the Derby really prove that much? He's good but its been awhile since he's raced on a fast track and if he gets hung out 3 wide on the first turn, he could have some problems. Of the price shots, I like Borrego and I'm starting to look at Sir Shackleton. If he doesn't try to battle Lion Heart, he may have a shot at getting 3rd or 4th if the pace is on the soft side.

[playintheponies]

my Preakness line

Smarty Jones 1:1
Lion Heart 5:2
Rock Hard Ten 5:1
Song of the Sword 5:1
Eddington 8:1
Imperialism 12:1
Sir Shackelton 20:1
Water Cannon 30:1
Borrego 50:1
Little Matth Man 50:1

The Cliff's Edge SCRATCHED


my picks

Smarty and Lion replay the Derby pace and run 1-2 all around the course, match strides at the wire

Eddington is my 'shot' to mess things up for the top two.


playintheponies