Sam F. Davis discussion

[letswastemoney]

I only looked at the BRIS PPs so far, but it seems that Ocean Knight should breeze over this field as long as he can duplicate his sprint form going longer.

BRIS PPs

What do you think?

[Robert Fischer]

Yea, I think Ocean Knight could be a class-level higher than the rest of these.

Catalina Red was very impressive last time. He's a big horse from the 1 post, so we'll see what kind of trip he gets. (a little worried he may be in a bit tight)

Royal Son and Ami's Flatter look fairly solid.

[whodoyoulike]

I like royal son and the ami's flatter as contenders. The others seem too fast, slow or something else for 8.5f. I'm leaning towards .

Ocean Knight is possible but, has never raced in a route.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Ocean Knight is possible but, has never raced in a route.

The pedigree looks okay for routes. I'm not worried about the sire side with Curlin, although the dam side made me think for a while. The dam does own 1 route win at least.

The post position isn't good.

If I had to pick a longshot, it would be Johnny Be Good.

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

The pedigree looks okay for routes. I'm not worried about the sire side with Curlin, although the dam side made me think for a while. The dam does own 1 route win at least.

The post position isn't good.

If I had to pick a longshot, it would be Johnny Be Good.

I don't like it when the Sire AWD is greater than the Dam AWD, it's been a good play against angle in the Derby so it's enough for me to oppose OK here.

Amis Flatter and Coomer look interesting.

Did Crittenden get gelded before or after his Keeneland flop?

[Robert Fischer]

I don't get the mystery involved with Ocean Knight running 1 1/16th.

He happened to run in a sprint on debut, in his only lifetime start.
That does not stamp him as a sprinter by any means. Nor is it unusual for route horses to debut in a sprint. 11 of the 12 entries in this race debuted in a sprint. Nor is his pedigree some extreme sprint-only pedigree.

Either Ocean Knight is the G-2-or-greater talent that he appears to be, or he isn't.

[whodoyoulike]

I did state Ocean Knight is a possible. But, I'd really like to see how he would do in a route (even 8f) distance before I bet my money.

The two I identified have that experience. It's just my preference for this particular race.

[Robert Fischer]

Do-It-Yourself prime power adjustment for Sam F. Davis:



*Note that this is based on the class as of the last race run, So if you feel Ocean Knight's class is at least the equal of his rivals here, you would upgrade him among the leaders.

[Robert Fischer]

Here this is a better version that gives more credit to prime power:
(click this thumbnail to see large, clear image.)

[letswastemoney]

I'd be more confident in Ami's Flatter's class if Bluegrass Singer ran better in the Holy Bull. Then again, I guess you don't have to be Upstart or Frosted to win against these.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I'd be more confident in Ami's Flatter's class if Bluegrass Singer ran better in the Holy Bull. Then again, I guess you don't have to be Upstart or Frosted to win against these.

Yea.

And oh yea - not sure if I gave you a 'congrats' yet on your writing gig with Lady and The Track. That's pretty cool. I've checked them out on facebook.


And it's worth noting that Ami's Flatter had a good trip in that race.
Bluegrass Singer set a fast pace, and earned a clear rail trip in the process, and then the 9-Mawthooq and the 7-Juan-and-Bina who were chasing Bluegrass Singer were really hurt by the pace, which 'flattered' Ami's Flatter quite a bit. Ami's Flatter was slightly outrun but when the 9 and 7 hit the wall, Ami's Flatter was able to capitalize by cutting the corner and continuing on a fairly steady effort.
However, I wouldn't call it the biggest dream trip in the world. It was a very good trip, but Ami's Flatter didn't necessarily look out of place. He couldn't keep up with the pace, but he wasn't horribly slow. He didn't look out of place physically. He was fundamentally sound.

• Personally, I think it points to a solid contender, but one that will likely be an 'underlay'.
• The trip was fortunate enough, that Ami's Flatter's odds will probably be bet a little lower by the public than 'fair-odds'.

[taxicab]

This race came up very strong.
Perhaps the deepest edition ever.
Good for TBD.....the little track that tries is doing well.
I'll avoid the ,tough draw and lack of experience at two turns spooks me off @ a short price.
I'll probably side with Ami's Flatter.
He needed his last badly and ran on well,trainer Josie knows what to do with a good young horse.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Yea.

And oh yea - not sure if I gave you a 'congrats' yet on your writing gig with Lady and The Track. That's pretty cool. I've checked them out on facebook.

Thanks. My editor is pretty cool and lets me write what I want for the most part...although I am mindful of the audience and make sure I don't get too bogged down in numbers.

I almost chose the Sam F. Davis for my analysis this weekend, but after starting this post and thinking about it, it's just too boring.

If Ocean Knight loses, I don't think the winner will be a Derby contender. I like Ocean Knight though. I hope he gets the job done here and takes on a race with Derby points next time.

[whodoyoulike]

You have to remind yourself that these are developing 3yo's still early in the year. Someone can figure it out and greatly improve and others may regress very badly at times.

I don't normally wager on 3yo's this early in the year. But, since I've sorta handicapped this race I'm going see if I can maintain my own personal discipline for this race (I doubt it).

Btw, I think the race will be run in 104.5 +/-.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

You have to remind yourself that these are developing 3yo's still early in the year. Someone can figure it out and greatly improve and others may regress very badly at times.

Here are 5 horses that I think could be on the "come up".

This list and comments are only about potential improvement, and have nothing to do with whether I think they are contenders.

1. Ocean Knight - No surprise here. There are more questions about a potentially wide trip, than there are about his inherent talent. It's possible that he could be a developing grade2 3yo. The public sees it, but he's a major player.
2. Royal Son - 'Flat' in 3 starts. Never flashed what I'd call 'talent' yet, and may not have that, but he's been in touch with fast horses in sprints, and comes in 2nd off the layoff with the top conditioner and top jockey. Could he finish a little better today? I don't think he's top class horse, but he could certainly move a little forward. Public may still bet the trainer, we'll see.
3. My Johnny Be Good - Probably not much value here, with the cool name and the flashy win in cheap company, but I think he could be in midst of an upswing in maturity.
4. Coomer - He works good, has been well bet, and was poached first time out for 50k. Good speed in the slop-fest on debut and then a strong finish at CD. The ugly looking form helps his value a lot.
5. G Five - Too cheap on paper. Benefited from an absolute dream trip last time in a pace collapse(which you typically want to avoid like the plague) where his stablemate did all the work and G Five couldn't get within 5 lengths of that stablemate. On the bright side - sometimes those dream-trip pace collapse races can benefit a horse like this. He got to ride the race-flow and duel another horse. There's a chance it could be a momentum builder. The supertrainer and the cool name probably hurt his value some.