San Pasqual Analysis

[zico20]

The big race of the week goes Saturday as Santa Anita's 8th race featuring Hoppertunity. I will give a break down in the order I think it will come with ML odds also.

Hoppertunity 9-5 Big GR 1 win in the Clark at CD now comes back to his home track. Most talented horse figures to get an ideal stalking trip behind the two front runners from the inside post. Baffert trained should be ready for best effort 3rd off the layoff. Hard to see this one losing unless some thing unusual happens. Final odds will be 4-5 or so. Best Bet of the day.

Tonito M 10-1 Post major draw back here for Hollendorfer/Bejarano combo. He lost at Zia to a very sharp, rapidly improving Alert Bay. 13 times on dirt 7-3-2 with only out of money finish coming at Belmont. Just keeps on closing every race. Another 4 yr old who will improve as the year goes on.

Majestic Harbor 9-2 If you toss the BC Classic (post 14) and the Pacific Classic (synthetic) this horse has been close his other 6 races in 2014. He is 8 for 10 at the distance in the money and 6 for 7 in the super lifetime at SA, with the only blemish the BC. Super fast work has this one primed for a big effort. A must use in the super.

Appealing Tale 10-1 Horse loves SA. All his best races are here. He is the fastest horse early. The last race is kind of deceiving. Three of the big favorites, led by Secret Circle all ran clunkers. He was my long shot at 31-1. Mile may be his limit but could hold on for a share at the extra sixteenth. Must avoid suicidal speed dual with my next pick.

Big Casanova 5-1 Inside post may help even out playing field on the front end with Appealing Tale. But he is not as fast early. Big knock is he clearly prefers the synthetic where he is undefeated. 14 starts on dirt and only 1 win is a big problem. Toss his BC race as he went 110 for a mile and 3/4 race and his one before that at Belmont in the JC Gold Cup from terrible post at a much longer distance than he prefers. If he can rate he has a shot at the ass end of the super.

Bronzo 8-1 Didn't like his BC mile race. He was very far back in a fast pace and just past faders in the lane. His record in Chile is not as impressive the IMO. Getting Stevens is a plus. Work outs are so so but could improve 2nd start in the US. Long shot for 4th if the two front runners duel each other into the ground.

Mr Commons 10-1 Strictly a turf horse who has not won in an eternity. Looks like a desperation move to dirt. Runs the same in GR1 races as he does in allowance races. Just don't see it here.

Salto Del Indio 20-1 Good form in Chile in 2013 winning GR 1 race. Has not transferred his form over to the US. Doesn't appear that he likes SA based on Gold Cup and plethora of work outs over the track.

Blue Tone 12-1 Clearly prefers synthetics to dirt and lost quite easily to Big Casanova at Del Mar. Horse also has no power on dirt. Hard to see making an impact in here except for the early part of the race.

Baccelo 30-1 two for two on dirt but boy this is a step up in class. Times are very slow and has never stepped foot on SA soil. Would be a shocker.

Quadrivium 6-1 Can someone please explain to me how this horse is 6-1 on the ML. I know Smith rides but this horse should go off 50-1 without Smith and 25-1 with him. Very cheap, winning a nw2 allowance at Laurel of all places. Never ran at SA and his 3 workouts here are not very encouraging to say the least. I just don't see it, period.

To recap, I love Hoppertunity to win with Tonito M and Majestic Harbor to be in the super. I think one of the two speed horses will round out the super but I don't see them both being there. If a suicidal speed dual emerges then both could run up the track, leaving the 4th spot wide open for any of the remaining 6 I don't like.

I have not bet a race all week and I don't like anything on Sunday so this is where I landed as far as possibly making money. I do have some money to play with as I won 300 at the casino this week. So, my "free" play is as follows:

40 tri and 80 bucks

super covers: 8 dollars with with with 32 bucks

4 dollar super with with with 16 bucks

Total investment 128 dollars. Hoping the tri pays 60-80 which would be a nice payday.

I think I have this figured out, Any input to where I may have gone wrong is always welcomed! GL

[letswastemoney]

Hopperunity should romp over that field. No other elite 4 year olds in there to deal with.

[arw629]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Hopperunity should romp over that field. No other elite 4 year olds in there to deal with.

Hoppertunity is yet to "romp" over anyone....
his 3 wins- Clark-most impressive by 1/2 length
-Rebel 1/2 length in mud
-Maiden 3 lengths--I guess this could constitute a romp

He might win, but I don't think he'll romp

[arw629]

Also...Baffert is ice cold right now and we all know how it goes when you're not running good

[arw629]

I think Tonito will be way overbet here as well....He's 1 for 7 in the states....his lone win a grade 3 at RP in a 10 furlong race for 3 year olds who dueled wildcat red into the ground....Tonito was handed that race on a silver platter....The second place horse in that race by 2 3/4 lengths would be 99-1 in the san pasqual......

Don't be surprised at all if Peter Miller scratches Big Cazanova or Appealing Tale....I think if Appealing Tale is scratched Big Cazanova can have his way on the front end....I agree that synthetic is probably his surface of choice but he is dead fit right now, and I don't see anyone other than Appealing Tale who will want to run early with him....i just cant see Miller having the two speeds duke it out on the front end but maybe im way wrong

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by arw629

Hoppertunity is yet to "romp" over anyone....
his 3 wins- Clark-most impressive by 1/2 length
-Rebel 1/2 length in mud
-Maiden 3 lengths--I guess this could constitute a romp

He might win, but I don't think he'll romp

The horses in the Clark were better than these.

I can see Hoppertunity winning by at least 3 lengths here.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by arw629

I think Tonito will be way overbet here as well....He's 1 for 7 in the states....his lone win a grade 3 at RP in a 10 furlong race for 3 year olds who dueled wildcat red into the ground....Tonito was handed that race on a silver platter....The second place horse in that race by 2 3/4 lengths would be 99-1 in the san pasqual......

Don't be surprised at all if Peter Miller scratches Big Cazanova or Appealing Tale....I think if Appealing Tale is scratched Big Cazanova can have his way on the front end....I agree that synthetic is probably his surface of choice but he is dead fit right now, and I don't see anyone other than Appealing Tale who will want to run early with him....i just cant see Miller having the two speeds duke it out on the front end but maybe im way wrong

It would surprise me if they hooked each other into submission, however, it would NOT be the first time two horses trained by the same guy cooked each other by "accident." I think he should scratch one or the other. It would give him a better chance of beating Hoppertunity.

Timeform US has them two even at the first call pace wise, but they seem to think Miller is going to let Big Cazanova get the lead. If so, why would you run Appealing Time, who won't close at all going two turns. If I was the owner of Appealing Time and he instructed my horse to take back and he runs out of it, I am changing trainers as soon as they cross the finish line. Putting up 3000 to run and then not giving your horse the best shot to win would piss me off. Appealing Time is the faster of the two.

Timeform picks Big Cazanova to win. On synthetic I could maybe see it. But a 1 for 14 dirt record is a huge minus to overcome. I would want at least 10-1 with that dirt record.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by zico20

Timeform picks Big Cazanova to win. On synthetic I could maybe see it. But a 1 for 14 dirt record is a huge minus to overcome. I would want at least 10-1 with that dirt record.

If that's the computer Power Pick, I don't think it takes different surfaces into account.

I see Pace Projector and the computer picks on TimeformUS as a friend. A good friend is always there to give advice, but in the end, you have to look at the data and still think for yourself.

[zico20]

One more thing that just hit me. There was a thread about uncoupled horses a while back. I said I was opposed to uncoupled horses and this race is why. If I am betting Appealing Tale to win and the trainer is instructing the jockey to take back he is not giving the horse the best chance to win. That is akin to fixing the race. Appealing Tales best chance to win is to shoot straight to the front and play catch me if you can. If there were two different trainers you would know for sure that Appealing Tale would have the lead. Now, I am not sure how the pace will play out. A true front runner has a much better chance of winning by having a length or two lead in fast fractions rather than sitting second in pretty fast fractions where he has fallen apart without the lead in past races.

[arw629]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

The horses in the Clark were better than these.

I can see Hoppertunity winning by at least 3 lengths here.

I disagree that the horses in the Clark were better than these....Constitution was the main threat to Hoppertunity after getting thumped against allowance horses at belmont a month earlier....The San Pasqual pace is going to be stronger than the Clark and the leaders are going to stay longer than Constitution did...Speed at Santa Anita stays a bit better at Churchill Downs as well

[Robert Fischer]

Looks like the morning line was very optimistic with 9-5. Hoppertunity looks like he will be 6-5 or even lower. He looks too obvious. I don't know enough about the other runners. A couple times at Santa Anita I've been burnt when the pace didn't stop.
Trying to bet Hoppertunity here is like splitting hairs of value (if in fact there is value), and a lot of betters are going to bet more then they can afford thinking he's a lock.
Will be interesting to see whether they go and bet him to show as well.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by arw629

I disagree that the horses in the Clark were better than these....Constitution was the main threat to Hoppertunity after getting thumped against allowance horses at belmont a month earlier....The San Pasqual pace is going to be stronger than the Clark and the leaders are going to stay longer than Constitution did...Speed at Santa Anita stays a bit better at Churchill Downs as well

Expecting Constitution to fire his absolute best off that layoff is too much. Todd Pletcher always improves 2nd off the layoff.

The best three year olds last year were several lengths better than the older horses.

Hoppertunity may not be the best of his crop, but he's very close and as a young horse improvement is coming. I don't think you can look at a three year old's speed figures and expect the same the next year, as long as standard maturity occurs.

I'm not saying Hoppertunity is playable at 3/5, but he is the best horse in this race by a few lengths and I will be very surprised if he loses.

[arw629]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Expecting Constitution to fire his absolute best off that layoff is too much. Todd Pletcher always improves 2nd off the layoff.

The best three year olds last year were several lengths better than the older horses.

Hoppertunity may not be the best of his crop, but he's very close and as a young horse improvement is coming. I don't think you can look at a three year old's speed figures and expect the same the next year, as long as standard maturity occurs.

I'm not saying Hoppertunity is playable at 3/5, but he is the best horse in this race by a few lengths and I will be very surprised if he loses.

That race was 2nd off the layoff for Constitution...he ran a stinker at belmont the month prior....pletcher was quoted before the Clark that he needed that race

[taxicab]

I think Hoppertunity goes off at even money(There's no way the public lets this one go at 9-5).
First problem for Hoppertunity........Bob Baffert is 1 for 24 at this meet,and his horses aren't even getting close.
Secret Circle anybody ?
Second problem for Hoppertunity......sneaky good field.
The rest of the field has 7 Gr. Stakes winners in it(5 of them are Gr.1).
Third problem for the Hop......I don't think the Clark was a strong race,I like this bunch better.
Can Hoppertunity win ?
Of course he can......but at even money I don't want anything to do with him.
I don't really care for the next 3 on the ML {a bad ML at that}.
Maybe for Drysdale.......Bronzo had no chance in the Dirt Mile against Goldencents on the asphalt surface that was SA on BC weekend.
The Mr. Commons might surprise......He's won on the dirt at SA [NWx1], and ran a solid 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby.
And Zico is right......the ml on the is atrocious.
Anytime Anyplace is still eligible for any NWx3 other than.
They have it right in the other thread,the linemaker isn't supposed to make the line based on who he likes.

[plainolebill]

Appealing Tale looks razor sharp and this is probably his ideal distance. If he runs I'll be using him. The morning line for the one is probably reflecting his connections: Flaxman, Motion and Smith, I doubt he'll be anywhere near that low.