Morning Line @ The Meadows

[The Inside Scoop]

I sit here and shook my head as I saw the 4 horse Downundermatter was 5/2 in the morning line in Nuncios race. I am not sure if someone actually makes the morning lines up at that track but if they do, they need to be replaced as they do not have a clue. That horse was so outclassed in there it was rediculous and yet they make him second choice in the morning line ahead of pretty much every horse in the race with the exception of the 1, that were 3 seconds better than him. By the way he finshed a well beaten last.

If anyone from The Meadows reads this site, please have someone who has a clue make the morning lines up. Even Nuncio at 7/5 was a joke as he should have been 1/5 or 2/5 morning line.

[titans1127]

It could be that they are using Trackmaster's automated morning line. If so they need to get rid of it. Monticello's been using it most of the year and I have never seen so many 1/5 and 1/9 favorites at that track before. Granted the signal was unavailable to most for a good 6 months but the trend hasn't changed even as the money has come back into the pools.

[mrroyboy]

The tracks don't let the morning line maker go too low. It discourages betting. The line maker knows Nuchio should be odds on but has to do what the track wants.

[The Inside Scoop]

My point here is that if someone made the morning line today that was a breathing human, on the horse I mentioned, he is nowhere near qualified to make a morning line.

Furthermore if a track cannot afford to hire someone to make a real morning line and uses a Mickey Mouse system to do it for them, its a sad state of affairs.

To the average newcomer, they read into morning lines and many bet by them. If the morning line is a false one, what good does it to for those people who bet horses like the one today that finished last? Will it make them want to come back to the track? Would it not be better to have someone who has a clue set a morning line that is more realistic to what the possible win payoffs might be?

7/5 on Nuncio would have been a nice horse to bet today wouldn't he? Are you sitting here telling me the morning line maker actually thought he would pay $4.80 or $4.90? If so, I have some land for sale in Florida.

This is what a more realistic morning line should have been for that race.

1. 75-1 instead of 20-1 (off @64-1)
2. 30-1 instead of 5-1 (off @11-1)
3. 12-1 instead of 4-1 (off @28-1)
4. 99-1 instead of 5/2 (off @13-1)
5. 25-1 instead of 10-1 (off @28-1)
6. 75-1 instead of 20-1 (off @65-1)
7. 1/5 instead of 7/5 (off @1/9)

[mrroyboy]

I agree. I'm just saying the line makers don't have the freedom to do whatever they want.

[Ray2000]

Another dummy

NFLD R6 Morgans Majestic-10/1 ML. . . . . Won paid $3.00

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by mrroyboy

The tracks don't let the morning line maker go too low. It discourages betting. The line maker knows Nuchio should be odds on but has to do what the track wants.

Maybe they ought to find a way to not card uncompetitive races than they won't have to worry about mismatches and discouraging betting.

[The Inside Scoop]

It would be interesting to see the results, if someone charted the morning lines for a few days to see the comparison in opening morning line odds to final closing odds were. I would like to see it for tracks that use an automated program and tracks that actually have a live body that does it.

For myself, any track that uses an automated system for morning line odds has really dropped the ball and for them try and promote this as a way of the future is laughable in the world of real horse bettors and insults my intelligence.

[David Siegel]

The Meadows does not use the TrackMaster automated morning line. I cannot say if they are using one from Disney or not ("Mickey Mouse line"). Only kidding. They use a human. Monticello did use it and now they are not as there were too many lower morning-line odds horses in their opinion. In fact, the line was more accurate when they used the TM line.

"Furthermore if a track cannot afford to hire someone to make a real morning line and uses a Mickey Mouse system to do it for them, its a sad state of affairs." The TrackMaster system is far from "mickey mouse". We did track how humans did against off odds for two years, about 1 million starts, and how those same off odds compared to the computer generated lines. It was not close. The machine did better, on average. There were a couple of tracks that the human did outperform the machine, but they were the rare exceptions. It is that type of research that led to a better line.

Machines doing a better job than humans is not a new concept. The computer can beat 99.9% of humans at chess. The computer can fly planes, move warships, guide doctors with microscopic surgeries, control rail systems, etc.

The bottom line is that we have very, very statistically significant proof that the TrackMaster algorithm can outperform the morning line maker the great majority of the time (but not all the time). There are other advantages as well - cost, timeliness, lack of typographical errors, balance and no possible "monkey business".

As always, happy to address well thought out questions.

With all that said, we will make bad lines, as will the humans. We will just do it with less frequency.

[moneyandland]

Originally Posted by David Siegel

The Meadows does not use the TrackMaster automated morning line. I cannot say if they are using one from Disney or not ("Mickey Mouse line"). Only kidding. They use a human. Monticello did use it and now they are not as there were too many lower morning-line odds horses in their opinion. In fact, the line was more accurate when they used the TM line.

"Furthermore if a track cannot afford to hire someone to make a real morning line and uses a Mickey Mouse system to do it for them, its a sad state of affairs." The TrackMaster system is far from "mickey mouse". We did track how humans did against off odds for two years, about 1 million starts, and how those same off odds compared to the computer generated lines. It was not close. The machine did better, on average. There were a couple of tracks that the human did outperform the machine, but they were the rare exceptions. It is that type of research that led to a better line.

Machines doing a better job than humans is not a new concept. The computer can beat 99.9% of humans at chess. The computer can fly planes, move warships, guide doctors with microscopic surgeries, control rail systems, etc.

The bottom line is that we have very, very statistically significant proof that the TrackMaster algorithm can outperform the morning line maker the great majority of the time (but not all the time). There are other advantages as well - cost, timeliness, lack of typographical errors, balance and no possible "monkey business".

As always, happy to address well thought out questions.

With all that said, we will make bad lines, as will the humans. We will just do it with less frequency.

Are these comparisons human vs computer comparing the computer vs the guys the track hires who spend all of 10 mins total for the whole card? Having watched Frank Drucker make the lines at Yonkers in the past, he'd have a horse claimed off a 3 for 150 trainer with Steve Smith driving previously go to Lou Pena with George Brennan in the same class from the rail listed at 6-1, after being only 3-1 from post 6 for the poor connections in the previous race... If were comparing computers to that effort of linesmaking we might as well compare computers to random odds drawn from a hat

This wasn't like a oh we all have bad days, this was 4-5 times a night for years, he didn't even have clear cut odds on choice at less than 5-1

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Been a while since I have been at the Meadows (even though I live six miles from the place but that is another story).

When I was a regular the person doing the morning line was Roger Huston. He has a system or formula that he keeps close to his vest that he uses. Nobody I know has seen it or heard what it uses but Roger swears to it.

Roger has been calling races on the fair tracks the last few weeks and left the announcing up to Jeff Zidek. I assume Roger might still be making the morning lines as he is still sending in his selections for the video feed which translates to his getting the early proofs for the pp's. I am just guessing that those lines on the pp's came from Roger.

[David Siegel]

To the last post, when we did our analysis, 100% of the lines were created by humans, so then the comparison was against the entire collection of men and women that create lines at every North American track. It is clear you comment is really not questioning who we compared to, but to critique a particular line maker. Yonkers was just one of the many tracks where the TrackMaster lines were superior, but we did not single out any one individual so I cannot comment on Mr. Drucker's level of expertise. What I can tell you is that Yonkers is one of the tracks that currently use the TrackMaster created lines, and consistent with all of our studies, the lines did outperform the human lines created just before they started using our lines. But this is not particular to Yonkers. Every track that has made the switch has improved their line's accuracy.

[The Inside Scoop]

I'll stick to my Mickey Mouse theory when it comes to computer systems trying to handicap harness racing.

[imofe]

Originally Posted by David Siegel

To the last post, when we did our analysis, 100% of the lines were created by humans, so then the comparison was against the entire collection of men and women that create lines at every North American track. It is clear you comment is really not questioning who we compared to, but to critique a particular line maker. Yonkers was just one of the many tracks where the TrackMaster lines were superior, but we did not single out any one individual so I cannot comment on Mr. Drucker's level of expertise. What I can tell you is that Yonkers is one of the tracks that currently use the TrackMaster created lines, and consistent with all of our studies, the lines did outperform the human lines created just before they started using our lines. But this is not particular to Yonkers. Every track that has made the switch has improved their line's accuracy.

Can you provide a list of tracks that use the computer line David?

[Sea Biscuit]

Originally Posted by David Siegel

Machines doing a better job than humans is not a new concept. The computer can beat 99.9% of humans at chess. The computer can fly planes, move warships, guide doctors with microscopic surgeries, control rail systems, etc.

Mr Siegel: Do you want me to show you how many times planes have crashed due to computer failure?